2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[mappy]

Just now, high risk said:

          We're almost certain to get a blue box later.      I agree that the TOR threat is limited even in PA, but while the low level winds are meh, the overall shear is decent.   So I see SPC's thought that any modification of the low-level winds by the front or storm interactions could lead to a TOR.

 

SPC making me look dumb lol  

thanks for your input, as always! 

[North Balti Zen]

I’m driving from philly to Pittsburgh now after having driven up to philly this AM for a meeting - should see some storms maybe on my way across PA...

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would tend to agree with you.  The SFC - 3km heliticty values are far more impressive north of Mason-Dixon down into the upper Delaware Bay region.

      it's also key that we're way hotter, and the LCL heights are much higher.    That deeply mixed, relatively dry PBL would cause any supercells this far south to gust out quickly.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

RIP, IAD to Mappy tomorrow on the 12z NAMNEST at HR 34 -> 36

Yeah - the soundings are absurd for areas within that pocket. Contaminated for sure in areas (I found a sounding with 50.1 supercell composite param). 

[mappy]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

I’m driving from philly to Pittsburgh now after having driven up to philly this AM for a meeting - should see some storms maybe on my way across PA...

take pics, safely! 

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Yeah - the soundings are absurd for areas within that pocket. Contaminated for sure in areas (I found a sounding with 50.1 supercell composite param). 

can you post a sounding? haven't looked. 

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

RIP, IAD to Mappy tomorrow on the 12z NAMNEST at HR 34 -> 36

Pretty impressive looking sim radar

[Kmlwx]

Would be pretty "classic-DC" if we manage to whiff on all three days around DC proper. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Trifecta for the big three hitting 90°.

[biodhokie]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Trifecta for the big three hitting 90°.

The one thing that DC does well: hot.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, mappy said:

can you post a sounding? haven't looked. 

Just south of FDK tomorrow - contaminated obviously

[mappy]

thanks. now someone explain it me. i still have yet to learn how to read a severe sounding. shhh don't tell anyone. 

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, mappy said:

take pics, safely! 

Will try - but man the PA turnpike is not a friendly stretch of highway - lanes are so tight etc. my hope would be seeing something about the place there is a rest area (I am stopped at one now).

[yoda]

Lol 1730 SPC disco sounds good for tomorrow... then you look at where the slight risk is and then you have to laugh 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

thanks. now someone explain it me. i still have yet to learn how to read a severe sounding. shhh don't tell anyone. 

The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???) 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Lol 1730 SPC disco sounds good... then you look at where the slight risk is and then you have to laugh 

Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event.  

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???) 

no clue. lol

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event.  

Oh I know... just it's a lil laughable that the same places have been SLGT or ENH for 3 days in a row now.  We dont see that very often in our parts

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???) 

Correct.  Source:  https://www.facebook.com/SHARPpy.wx/posts/tutorial-how-to-tell-if-your-sounding-is-convectively-contaminatedwith-spring-co/1592950307629254/

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Correct.  Source:  https://www.facebook.com/SHARPpy.wx/posts/tutorial-how-to-tell-if-your-sounding-is-convectively-contaminatedwith-spring-co/1592950307629254/

Wooo - some of what I read is sticking (finally). I've come so far since 2006. 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event.  

Ah - the good old "SEE TEXT" - that was an amazing example of how tough to predict severe can be. Some of our most memorable events I feel like are underforecast by SPC from leads. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Ah - the good old "SEE TEXT" - that was an amazing example of how tough to predict severe can be. Some of our most memorable events I feel like are underforecast by SPC from leads. 

We always win when LWX / SPC are playing catch up, whether it's winter or summer.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yoda, take solace in knowing that we fail 9.99/10 times and on our biggest day, Derecho 2012, SPC didn't even have us in a SLGT until a few hours before the event.  

you can't compare the derecho to this set up. that was a whole other beast

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

you can't compare the derecho to this set up. that was a whole other beast

I know that, I was referring to the convective outlook placement prior to the event.

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I know that, I was referring to the convective outlook placement prior to the event.

but even then the set up was different. models have been advertising possible storms for us all week. there wasn't much there for the derecho until the day of, hence the upgrades as the day went on. 

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Will try - but man the PA turnpike is not a friendly stretch of highway - lanes are so tight etc. my hope would be seeing something about the place there is a rest area (I am stopped at one now).

You get out west of the Susquehanna and there's a stretch that the pike is 3 lanes in each direction...also, once in the Cumberland Valley you'll have some open spaces where you'll be able to see for miles...

[Kmlwx]

Cell going up near Hancock

[yoda]

Where's our MD? 

Should be interesting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding from KIAD shows in about 20 minutes 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Where's our MD? 

Should be interesting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding from KIAD shows in about 20 minutes 

Wonder if they're waiting on the 18z RAOB before making a call on a watch?

[yoda]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if they're waiting on the 18z RAOB before making a call on a watch?

Where's the quickest to see the 18z RAOB?  SPC sounding page?