2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[yoda]

@Kmlwx @high risk

00z NAM tossing out some silly soundings again from 18z TUES to 00z WED lol

ETA: Check out 21z TUES at KBWI 

[JakkelWx]

This is one hell of a lightning storm. Constant barrage and this is the 2nd storm to pass over within a half hour.

[yoda]

SARS is off the charts silly for hail at 21z TUES at KDCA

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

SARS is off the charts silly for hail at 21z TUES at KDCA

Looks like NAM nest keeps our area pretty much in the clear despite parameters being nice. NEPA looks ominous, though. 

[87storms]

39 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like there are a few storms popping up ahead of the rain complex

Not the most inspiring radar atm. Might need to rely on timely popcorn cells.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

This is one hell of a lightning storm. Constant barrage and this is the 2nd storm to pass over within a half hour.

Yeah lots of booming thunder here.

Picked up 0.65" of rain.

[Stormfly]

Tennis ball size hail SE of Edgewood MD!

 

[high risk]

22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Looks like NAM nest keeps our area pretty much in the clear despite parameters being nice. NEPA looks ominous, though. 

 

       yeah, although NAM synoptics for Tuesday don't match up well with the GFS.      NAM front is slower.

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

       yeah, although NAM synoptics for Tuesday don't match up well with the GFS.      NAM front is slower.

I'll cross my fingers and hope for persistence - good storms lately so hopefully our luck continues. 

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

       yeah, although NAM synoptics for Tuesday don't match up well with the GFS.      NAM front is slower.

I'm confused... does this mean that the GFS is better for us than the NAM because the front moves toward us faster?

[high risk]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm confused... does this mean that the GFS is better for us than the NAM because the front moves toward us faster?

      I *think* so.    NAM has a nice line of storms on the front, so if we speed up the front, that might end up over our area.

[poolz1]

Not nearly as impressive as some of the pics shared here recently.  But, for my backyard this is as good as it gets.  Being in a valley with large trees surrounding our property it's rare to get a shot of a good storm before it's right on top of us.  This storm stayed about 5 mile to the north and offered a really impressive structure and tons of lightning.

[Kmlwx]

SPC thinks PA is ground zero around here tomorrow. And other than the morning stuff, the NAM, NAM nest and HRRR (long range) are not enthused. I'm out for now. 

[Kmlwx]

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Enhanced just north of the Pa line . Not much of a shift needed for northern neck to get in on the goods. 

 

Forcing looks to stay north. One thing that could work is getting good outflow from those storms to touch off storms for us. But the models are certainly not onboard with that right now (but it's far out for now). I'm more interested in Wednesday at this point. NAM nest is absolutely insistent on good parameters but nothing coming of them in the LWX CWA. 

[87storms]

cape values look good tomorrow afternoon, but not sure where we get the lift from.  wednesday evening seems like it has some potential.

[87storms]

4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Forcing looks to stay north. One thing that could work is getting good outflow from those storms to touch off storms for us. But the models are certainly not onboard with that right now (but it's far out for now). I'm more interested in Wednesday at this point. NAM nest is absolutely insistent on good parameters but nothing coming of them in the LWX CWA. 

i like wednesday if we can get into a classic hazy, humid day.  i think tomorrow morning is just some leftover scraps, so i'm expecting mostly showers, but weather has surprised me before, so who knows.  i do think wednesday has better potential overall.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

i like wednesday if we can get into a classic hazy, humid day.  i think tomorrow morning is just some leftover scraps, so i'm expecting mostly showers, but weather has surprised me before, so who knows.  i do think wednesday has better potential overall.

IIRC somebody once said that a lot of our "big severe" days have some morning showers/rain which can sometimes serve to beef up the dewpoint and/or lay down boundaries for storms to fire along. Not saying tomorrow OR Wednesday are "big severe" days - but could help us out a bit. 

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

IIRC somebody once said that a lot of our "big severe" days have some morning showers/rain which can sometimes serve to beef up the dewpoint and/or lay down boundaries for storms to fire along. Not saying tomorrow OR Wednesday are "big severe" days - but could help us out a bit. 

i can believe it, but just not seeing much in the way of energy to spark things here.  seems like it's further north, but maybe all that residual storminess helps out for wednesday.  pretty good storm season so far and it's not even june.

[Kmlwx]

June is definitely out "big league" month it seems. Though really anytime April through July can go big with the right ingredients. Once we get into July though it seems things go more towards pulse severe as shear tends to be harder to come by.

Hopefully June brings continued chances at tracking. Best part about severe season is that I tend not to give *too* much look at day 4 and beyond other than glancing at general setups and the day 4-8 outlook. None of this chasing snowstorms from 14 days out kind of things

[AmericanWxFreak]

Scary scenes in OH tonight. Is that the system that is headed this way for tomorrow? 

 

[87storms]

There’s the weather surprise... Just heard some thunder, which isn’t a common morning feature around here. It just wants to storm this season.

[frd]

Missed the heavy storms that went South of me on weekend but this line should make it here.  Seems to be getting stronger as it move East.  

 

[frd]

Things may be moving faster than anticipated - implications for later 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
657 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM Update...The decaying MCS is moving through the area
faster than expected. This may lead to an increased severe
weather threat later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track.

 

[birdsofprey02]

I’m right in the middle of the cluster of lightning, but don’t hear much thunder at all.  A few here and there but nothing compared to the strike indications.  Heavy rain (for several minutes now).  Wind was light, but mostly calm now.  

 

 

[jewell2188]

27 minutes ago, 87storms said:

There’s the weather surprise... Just heard some thunder, which isn’t a common morning feature around here. It just wants to storm this season.

Still haven’t had that significant outbreak area wide. 

[yoda]

Updated morning AFD seems to think there is at least an isolated risk to the DC metro region -- the zones (updated as of 10:30am) also have the severe wording into the DC Metro as well

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Poorly defined frontal boundary is now pushing northeast across
the region, and the morning showers are moving away. Clouds will
break for sun shortly where they have not already done so.

Meanwhile, a frontal wave of low pressure will move eastward
and into PA/NY by late this afternoon/evening. Partly to mostly
sunny skies are expected to develop south of the boundary this
afternoon and that will allow for temperatures to reach the low
90s from the DC metro south, with mid/upper 80s northe of
there. Thus, instability on the order of 2000-3000 J/KG of
MLCAPE will likely develop across the region. This will be
overlaid with up to 40 knots of 0-6KM wind shear, setting up a
conditional threat for severe thunderstorms.

The greatest forcing will reside across PA with a weak upper
level disturbance, surface low, and surface cold front. Thus
expecting additional shower and thunderstorm development to
occur across central/southern PA during the afternoon and
evening hours. It`s also possible some more isolated activity
initiates as the warm front is lifting northward across
central/northern MD. Convective activity is then expected to
move east/southeastward after initiation. At this point, it is
questionable how far south shower/thunderstorm activity can make
it given mainly west/southwest low level flow. However, enough
of the convective allowing models show propagation southward
into the region that given the CAPE/shear combination in
addition to the uncertainty with the warm frontal position, a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms remains in place across
northern/central MD. Further south, risk tapers off quite
sharply, with little to no severe risk towards central VA. The
main threats in any severe thunderstorms will be large hail and
localized damaging winds, although an isolated tornado is
possible given the close proximity to the frontal boundary.

[mappy]

picked up 0.0 over the weekend, including the sunday night stuff that passed to my south. i could have walked to the rain lol 

nice little downpour of rain this morning made for a fun drive to work. 

overcast now with no optimism for storms later today

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

picked up 0.0 over the weekend, including the sunday night stuff that passed to my south. i could have walked to the rain lol 

nice little downpour of rain this morning made for a fun drive to work. 

overcast now with no optimism for storms later today

looks like some clearing to the west moving in, but closer to the m/d line might do better later today.

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, mappy said:

picked up 0.0 over the weekend, including the sunday night stuff that passed to my south. i could have walked to the rain lol 

nice little downpour of rain this morning made for a fun drive to work. 

overcast now with no optimism for storms later today

That sucks... pure blue sky here with lots of sun.  Hopefully the clouds will clear shortly so you can get in on the sun

[Kmlwx]

The 14z HRRR has pretty much nothing of interest south of the M/D line this afternoon/evening. 

 

ETA: But the extended HRRR (12z) looks great for tomorrow.