2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Storm N of Charlottesville is rotating a bit.

[yoda]

I'm going to guess that the WF is allowing these storms to rotate?

[NorthArlington101]

Storm N of Charlottesville is rotating a bit.

Needs one. Could’ve been down there today and “chased” it. Darn.

[yoda]

LMAO radarscope hail size is 3.50 inches... trying to take screenshot of it

[jewell2188]

Just drove through the town of Warrenton some pretty sizable branches sheared off of trees all within less than a half mile radius. Lots of flash flooding though. 

[yoda]

TVS sig on it and hail to 3.75" lol

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

TVS sig on it and hail to 3.75" lol

Maximum Delta Velocity is at 102kts

Few pixels of 75dbz

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Maximum Delta Velocity is at 102kts

Few pixels of 75dbz

That cell was impressive.  Looks like its rapidly falling apart now though.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That cell was impressive.  Looks like its rapidly falling apart now though.

Makes me wonder about tomorrow's storms with how well they traversed the region today and the amount of supercells

[Tater Tot]

Been a little bit more T&L with this one than usual.

[wawarriors4]

Had penny size hail and picked up 0.86” of rain in about 30 minutes. Numerous trees and branches down around neighborhood just north of Falmouth, VA in Stafford County. Definitely some of the best lightning I’ve seen in a while. Storm seemed to cycle up right as it went over.

[jewell2188]

This was taken from brandy station (culpeper county) close to the fauquier county line. It certainly looks like a well defined supercell.

[yoda]

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

TVS sig on it and hail to 3.75" lol

Bernstein tweeted about it lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/hbwx/status/1132439507360468992

[ErinInTheSky]

There's a beautiful towering thunderhead in Frederick right now and watching the lightning show from Germantown is so awesome.

[yoda]

Late night warnings are fun

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1103 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland...
  Howard County in central Maryland...
  Northeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Southwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland...

* Until 1145 PM EDT.

* At 1103 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over
  Linganore-Bartonsville, or near Frederick, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Columbia, Frederick, Pikesville, Damascus, Harry Grove Stadium,
  Ellicott City, Catonsville, Woodlawn, Randallstown, Owings Mills,
  Eldersburg, Milford Mill, Reisterstown, Lochearn, Ballenger Creek,
  Mount Airy, Walkersville, Sykesville, Oakland and New Market.

[high risk]

not sure why the polygon extends so far south, given the east movement

[Chase]

Just now, high risk said:

not sure why the polygon extends so far south, given the east movement

Maybe because all of them tonight have jogged SE when they get severe?  

[high risk]

Just now, Chase said:

Maybe because all of them tonight have jogged SE when they get severe?  

    perhaps, but it comes all the way to the southern tip of Howard County

    edit:   there appears to be a gust front on the southwest flank, so development further south is certainly possible

 

[yoda]

@high risk what do you think of tomorrow?  SPC mentioned some supercells in their 1730z OTLK

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

@high risk what do you think of tomorrow?  SPC mentioned some supercells in their 1730z OTLK

        I think it's a slight risk day for sure.   00z NAM nest is completely disinterested, but the HRRR looks better.     Deep layer shear is impressive, and I agree that a couple of supercells are possible.     The tornado threat should be extremely low, though, due to the hot boundary layer.     The T/Td spreads will certainly promote some nice downdrafts and a wind damage threat.

[yoda]

Thunder here now... I love night storms

[yoda]

SLGT risk for all of LWX CWA today... 15 hail and 15 wind 

[NorthArlington101]

[H2O]

Whole area in slight risk. Gimme some bay storms

[Kmlwx]

LWX is very bullish it seems for Tuesday. SPC is less enthused. But that's not a concern...I just went back for nostalgia and was re-reading outlooks leading up to the June 2012 derecho and we weren't even in a risk from long leads. 

[Kmlwx]

Latest HRRR (12z) run in progress has some pop up storms for the I-95 corridor around 19-20z and then a big line coming through later. 

[fourseasons]

12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR (12z) run in progress has some pop up storms for the I-95 corridor around 19-20z and then a big line coming through later. 

Hopefully they can get the Memorial Day concert finished before a line comes through (it runs from 8-9:30 p.m. on the U.S. Capitol grounds).  I've attended when it was simply pouring rain, but this would be a smidge different.

[Vice-Regent]

Looks promising. New QLCS forming west of the Blue Ridge?

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

LWX is very bullish it seems for Tuesday. SPC is less enthused. But that's not a concern...I just went back for nostalgia and was re-reading outlooks leading up to the June 2012 derecho and we weren't even in a risk from long leads. 

IMO, June 2012 derecho was the worst forecast bust for severe weather.  "See Text" to a Federal Disaster in 12 hours.

[high risk]

38 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR (12z) run in progress has some pop up storms for the I-95 corridor around 19-20z and then a big line coming through later. 

12z nam nest in surprisingly perfect agreement.