2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

2 tornado warned storms in PA.  Ruh roh.

Nice polygon art!

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   920 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern Maryland
     Southern Pennsylvania
     Eastern West Virginia Panhandle

   * Effective this Thursday night from 920 PM until Midnight EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A pair of discrete supercells may persist southeast across
   southern Pennsylvania for the next couple hours, and spread into
   parts of Maryland before weakening.

[high risk]

hard to argue with the watch with those impressive cells in central PA.     supercell composite values are pretty decent.    18z NAM nest brings the cells into far northern MD before dying, while HRRR is completely unimpressed.      I still think that they're going to have a tough time making it to the Mason-Dixon line due to diminishing instability, but I certainly won't discount the possibility.

[yoda]

01z HRRR has a random storm in Frederick county show up at 06z

[yoda]

If the Bedford supercell can hold together... HGR looks in line in about an hour

[yoda]

@Kmlwx

LWX seems to think Sunday could be another active day in their AFD if things come together 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will be a very warm and potentially unstable day, with a
cold front dropping toward the region. Timing will be key, as
there is the potential for another active afternoon/evening if
the front drops south of the MD/PA border overlapping with any
daytime heating

[Kmlwx]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Kmlwx

LWX seems to think Sunday could be another active day in their AFD if things come together 

 

 

I have no opinion yet. But it's been there a bit off and on - on the guidance. Wouldn't expect anything like today at this range. 

[yoda]

STW NW Frederick county and NE Washington county until 11:15pm... hail to quarters and winds to 60mph

[AlexD1990]

Tornado warning in the Philadelphia suburbs

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

[high risk]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

       @kmlwx     We were not in lockstep with today's storms.     Please get your act together for the next Step 2 event.     

  

[Kmlwx]

5 hours ago, high risk said:

       @kmlwx     We were not in lockstep with today's storms.     Please get your act together for the next Step 2 event.     

  

I don't know what's gotten into me

[mappy]

15 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I just knew it was a storm of that caliber purely by the INSANELY strong smell of freshly cut trees. So fragrant. The size of the trees that were taken down is quite impressive too. 

 

When I was driving around I noticed how quickly even the small twigs and leafs one the road would stop. I am thinking there was a microburst or something that kept the damage pretty localized. I will post some photos now.

You, sir, were in a tornado! the freshly cut grass smell is pretty common given the amount of greenery that is displaced. Glad you're okay! And hopefully your location didn't take on too much damage. 

11 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Nice polygon art!

 

 

 

 

 

I believe that is because it crosses into the next CWA area. happens all the time. 

11 hours ago, high risk said:

hard to argue with the watch with those impressive cells in central PA.     supercell composite values are pretty decent.    18z NAM nest brings the cells into far northern MD before dying, while HRRR is completely unimpressed.      I still think that they're going to have a tough time making it to the Mason-Dixon line due to diminishing instability, but I certainly won't discount the possibility.

they died. I was up until after 1130, saw one of the tornado warned storms and the line dropping southeast. they were weakening as they got closer to the MD/PA line. I could see the lightning up near Harrisburg and points west, but it all stopped on approach. oh well. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

25 minutes ago, mappy said:

You, sir, were in a tornado! the freshly cut grass smell is pretty common given the amount of greenery that is displaced. Glad you're okay! And hopefully your location didn't take on too much damage. 

 

Thank you! It certainly could have been worse, just a decent amount of property damage - sounds like everyone in the house that was split in half by a tree ended up okay which is what I was most concerned about. Seeing how quickly the community came together to clean things up was fantastic to see as well - lots of beers being passed around too  

 

PS. I even ran into a lurker of our forum while walking around - so random lol 

[high risk]

34 minutes ago, mappy said:

they died. I was up until after 1130, saw one of the tornado warned storms and the line dropping southeast. they were weakening as they got closer to the MD/PA line. I could see the lightning up near Harrisburg and points west, but it all stopped on approach. oh well. 

 

              Yeah, I was watching the radar late, and they almost made it!      But the timing of the front was a few hours off for us.

 

[mappy]

27 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Thank you! It certainly could have been worse, just a decent amount of property damage - sounds like everyone in the house that was split in half by a tree ended up okay which is what I was most concerned about. Seeing how quickly the community came together to clean things up was fantastic to see as well - lots of beers being passed around too  

PS. I even ran into a lurker of our forum while walking around - so random lol 

I have a friend, who is also a luker here, who works in the area. He sent me a text this morning telling me he was inside a tornado lol us weather nerds are funny. 

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

              Yeah, I was watching the radar late, and they almost made it!      But the timing of the front was a few hours off for us.

 

oh well, it is only May. Weve got the summer to get the goods. 

[high risk]

     The fake photos are out in full force today.    Justin Berk's FB page has a shot that is supposed to be of the storm approaching Columbia yesterday.     It's clearly a plains HP supercell at sunset photoshopped in.

[AmericanWxFreak]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

     The fake photos are out in full force today.    Justin Berk's FB page has a shot that is supposed to be of the storm approaching Columbia yesterday.     It's clearly a plains HP supercell at sunset photoshopped in.

talking about this one? Im not sure that is fake, it looks very similar to the shots that I got just I wasn't able to get the complete horizon in my shot... 

 

 

[frd]

11 minutes ago, high risk said:

     The fake photos are out in full force today.    Justin Berk's FB page has a shot that is supposed to be of the storm approaching Columbia yesterday.     It's clearly a plains HP supercell at sunset photoshopped in.

Looking at Sunday do you think there is at least potential, even if not severe, for rainfall in the Northern parts of the sub forum including my area and the Eastern Shore ? Thanks  

( and those photoshopped amateurs need to at least pick more realistic "fake " photos to use )

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

talking about this one? Im not sure that is fake, it looks very similar to the shots that I got just I wasn't able to get the complete horizon in my shot... 

 

 

         that's the one.     I'm completely skeptical, as the rotation yesterday was embedded in a line, and I don't see how there would have been brightness on either side.    That looks like a photoshopped HP supercell from the plains, taken at sunset.

[mappy]

lol theres no way that is from yesterday -- the tornado was part of an embedded cell in a massive squall line. there would't have been the light behind it like that. it wasn't discrete. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

         that's the one.     I'm completely skeptical, as the rotation yesterday was embedded in a line, and I don't see how there would have been brightness on either side.    That looks like a photoshopped HP supercell from the plains, taken at sunset.

I totally see where your coming from, I think the actual sun is on the left side as you can see the lighting on the side of the building is pretty on point looking... But the light on the right side I think is just not as dark clouds as it got VERY dark. I think his panoramic mode on his shot is giving it more of a cylindrical look as well. It was certainly rounded from my POV too and If I could zoom out on my picture you would see what I am talking about. I could be wrong though, wouldnt be the first time  

[AmericanWxFreak]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol theres no way that is from yesterday -- the tornado was part of an embedded cell in a massive squall line. there would't have been the light behind it like that. it wasn't discrete. 

there was certainly light beind the storm on one side, it got sunny VERY fast after this blew through here. We were on the northern kink of the line too.

[jewell2188]

Fake picture or not, i for the life of me can’t understand why or what satisfaction people get from posting photoshopped pictures. 

[Eskimo Joe]

18 hours ago, mappy said:

colleges need to stop tweeting weather advisories, wtf is this?

is UMBC even under a warning right now? 

Automated machine learning BS.  They got flamed, rightfully so, in the comments section.

[mappy]

i remain skeptical. 

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Automated machine learning BS.  They got flamed, rightfully so, in the comments section.

did they? good. I never went back to look to see what kind of responses they got. i get the need to tweet out that UMBC was under a warning, especially with graduation ongoing. But it such a horribly worded tweet. 

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I totally see where your coming from, I think the actual sun is on the left side as you can see the lighting on the side of the building is pretty on point looking... But the light on the right side I think is just not as dark clouds as it got VERY dark. I think his panoramic mode on his shot is giving it more of a cylindrical look as well. It was certainly rounded from my POV too and If I could zoom out on my picture you would see what I am talking about. I could be wrong though, wouldnt be the first time  

 

        That's a super nice picture!     But I assume you're looking north, and we're seeing the light out AHEAD of the storm on the right side.    In the referenced picture, I have to assume that the person is supposedly looking west as the storm arrives, and the light we're seeing is around the southwest flank of the cell.     I just don't see how it could have possibly been light in that direction with no break in the line.

[mappy]

That first picture is also more bowed, while the second is more elongated. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Fake picture or not, i for the life of me can’t understand why or what satisfaction people get from posting photoshopped pictures. 

easy, it got picked up by someone with a ton of followers and being shared all over the web. 

[high risk]

 

      These pictures look more like those from  AmericanWxFreak, with muted light out ahead of the system, although I have to say that there is more light on the left side of the first picture than I expected to see.    Not totally sure of the direction here.