2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No you're just learning to be cautious.

Hoping to end up somewhere between Yoda and you. Maybe I'm already there. 

[Kmlwx]

Clouds have thickened up here in Potomac, MD - need to get these out of here. My feelings on today are heading downward not upward at the moment. 

[Mrs.J]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Clouds have thickened up here in Potomac, MD - need to get these out of here. My feelings on today are heading downward not upward at the moment. 

Getting some sun breaking through up here in Frederick currently. 

 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Clouds have thickened up here in Potomac, MD - need to get these out of here. My feelings on today are heading downward not upward at the moment. 

pretty typical. like high risk said, i think we still see some storms, but whether they are as severe as some of us would like to be, remains to be seen. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Bright sun in Germantown right now.

 

 

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

pretty typical. like high risk said, i think we still see some storms, but whether they are as severe as some of us would like to be, remains to be seen. 

Yeah - everything is far too conditional today for a shot at a moderate I think. In fact, if there was a gun to my head I'd actually learn more towards shrinkage of the ENH or elimination of it. 

[yoda]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1028 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will remain offshore today and a southerly flow
will continue to usher in warmer and more humid conditions. Max
temps will top off in the mid to upper 80s across most locations
with a few locations possibly approaching 90 degrees. The
increased heat and humidity will lead to an unstable atmosphere.
Latest modified KIAD sounding shows around 1-2KJ/KG of MLCAPE
developing this afternoon, with some locations possibility
reaching over 2KJ/KG. A convective system is also tracking
through the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania this morning.

This system will track through our area this afternoon into this
evening. Latest thinking is that this system will weaken as it
approaches late this morning, but re-development is possible
across our area this afternoon into early this evening due to
the increasing instability. Strong deep layer shear combined
with the instability suggests that severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon into this evening. Deep layer shear will
most likely be around 40-50 knots. Current thinking is that the
best chance for strong to severe storms will be near and east of
a pressure trough that should set up near the Blue Ridge and
Catcoctin Mountains this afternoon. However, given the strong
shear profiles and relatively favorable mid-level lapse rates,
there is a threat for severe storms across the entire area. Do
think that overall coverage of the severe storms will be
isolated to scattered since the lifting mechanism is relatively
weak. Locally damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary
threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out due to the
strong shear profiles.

In preparation for today`s potential severe threat, ensure you
and your family have multiple ways to receive warnings and have
a plan and place to take shelter if needed.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible later
this evening ahead of the cold front. Instability will be more
limited, but the shear profiles will be quite strong. Therefore,
an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out with this activity,
especially across northern Maryland/northern VA/eastern WV.
Activity will diminish overnight as instability continues to
decrease and the cold front drops farther south.

[mappy]

^^ said it yesterday. without the lift, we won't get anything discrete out ahead of the front. LWX agrees. 

[Kmlwx]

CIPS still is suggestive of more chances at severe coming. Pretty good analog signal for some severe at the 168hr mark on the extended analogs. There should be chances over the next week or two...whether they result in anything of significance remains to be seen. 

[Kmlwx]

Tracking something like June 4, 2008 again would be a treat. I remember watching the event start to unfold at lunch and in my 6th period class where I had access to a computer. Sprinted home through the woods (I lived close) after school to fire up all of my radar programs (I had StormLab at the time). 

I was a total weenie back in 2008...

[high risk]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

^^ said it yesterday. without the lift, we won't get anything discrete out ahead of the front. LWX agrees. 

        I'd argue that our best chances are ahead of the front, with redevelopment on the flanks of whatever is left of the ongoing OH/WV storms as they move east.    That front is going to arrive too far past peak heating for DC metro, but it could be ok for your area up north (as per the 12z NAM nest).   Our best chances further south are in the mid to late afternoon timeframe - I'm not as bullish as I was yesterday, but the CAMs overall are not doing well with ongoing upstream convection.     I'm prepared to bust badly with my optimism.

       

[jewell2188]

All sun in Springfield since early this morning. Quite warm out. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

        I'd argue that our best chances are ahead of the front, with redevelopment on the flanks of whatever is left of the ongoing OH/WV storms as they move east.    That front is going to arrive too far past peak heating for DC metro, but it could be ok for your area up north (as per the 12z NAM nest).   Our best chances further south are in the mid to late afternoon timeframe - I'm not as bullish as I was yesterday, but the CAMs overall are not doing well with ongoing upstream convection.     I'm prepared to bust badly with my optimism.

       

i hadn't checked 12z NAM yet. I see what you mean though. It has some nice cells pre-front around 18-19z, followed by the front later on 00-01z or so. 

i just know that we tend to need a lot of things to work out well here, and even one thing failing sends everything crashing downward. im sure somewhere there will be thunder and lightning. i'm just not sure how "enhanced risk" worthy it will be, ya know? 

[Mrs.J]

Starting to feel the humidity up here now. Cloud cover still out there but getting some heating. 68 now. 

[osfan24]

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Tracking something like June 4, 2008 again would be a treat. I remember watching the event start to unfold at lunch and in my 6th period class where I had access to a computer. Sprinted home through the woods (I lived close) after school to fire up all of my radar programs (I had StormLab at the time). 

I was a total weenie back in 2008...

What happened June 4, 2008? I don't remember that at all. Really the only true severe system I remember well was the derecho. Obviously there are certain thunderstorms that stick out in my mind.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

What happened June 4, 2008? I don't remember that at all. Really the only true severe system I remember well was the derecho. Obviously there are certain thunderstorms that stick out in my mind.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_20080604

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_20080604_lsr

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/06/june_4_2008_severe_weather_out_1.html

[ErinInTheSky]

Cloud cover clearing out in Moco-Hoco

 

[osfan24]

Been cloudier than I expected today, but that's the case with 95% of our severe weather days it seems.

[Kmlwx]

60 percent chance of a watch for portions of the area and to the north. 

[Kmlwx]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0750.html

[mappy]

60% chance with an enhanced risk. oh boy. 

[H2O]

Maybe its just me but latest meso parameters aren't ugly the the DMV area.  CAPE is healthy just off to the west and plenty of shear around

[ErinInTheSky]

aaaaand cloudcover'd

 

[yoda]

Still 5 tor, 15 hail, 15 wind at 1630 OTLK 

30 wind and ENH risk remains where it is... maybe a super slight south shift 

[MN Transplant]

Up in the Deep Creek area.  Little gusty, heavy rain, some lightning.

[Mrs.J]

Had to take my daughter to an appt on the North end of Frederick. Full sun out up there. We live on the SW side of Frederick got home and clouds are really retreating down here now. Currently 74 72/64

[87storms]

think we'll be in and out of the clouds until gametime.  hopefully enough fuel to keep the line going.  there's some lightning with just about the entire line.

[yoda]

SPC going for the twin bill it appears in their 1630 disco

Quote

...NY into Mid Atlantic Region...

   A fast moving line of thunderstorms is tracking across central PA,
   and extends southwestward into WV.  This line may intensify this
   afternoon as it approaches the east coast, with a risk of locally
   damaging wind gusts.  Please refer to MCD #750 for further details.

   In the wake of the first line, multiple lines and clusters of
   thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of western/central
   PA into northern WV.  Fast flow aloft and sufficient time to heat
   will result in a favorable environment for a few severe storms
   capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail.  These storms will
   track eastward and approach the east coast by dark.  While damaging
   winds are the main threat, an isolated tornado or two cannot be
   ruled out.

[Eskimo Joe]

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 5/23/2019 1:02 PM to 8:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD, Carroll County, MD. More information.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

New event. Severe Thunderstorm Watch from 5/23/2019 1:02 PM to 8:00 PM EDT for Montgomery County, MD, Carroll County, MD. More information.

Pretty large amount of LWX CWA in the STWatch