2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Stormpc]

Much like this past winter, it's been a good season so far for Western folks. Not terrible for metro area, but once again eastern areas getting shafted. Rough day out west. Line incoming looks gusty. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Nice looking line incoming.

[yoda]

The supercell looks like it will be caught by the line soon

[Mrs.J]

Starting to get thunder and lightning over here in Frederick. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Nothing severe here, but active T &L, and pounding rain.  This has to be close to 2" on the day.  River running down the street gutters.  Pollen  taking it on the chin today.

 Thankfully, got the mowing done seconds before the supercell this afternoon.

[yoda]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nothing severe here, but active T &L, and pounding rain.  This has to be close to 2" on the day.  River running down the street gutters.  Pollen  taking it on the chin today.

 Thankfully, got the mowing done seconds before the supercell this afternoon.

Desert getting flooded lol

[Mrs.J]

Incoming. 

[Mrs.J]

Weird after hearing thunder continuous now just getting a lot of lightning. Line is just to my West. 

[Mrs.J]

Line just blew into my neighborhood. Pouring wind driven rain thunder and lightning. 

[EB89]

1.15 inches of rain in 27 minutes. 

[ErinInTheSky]

I will honestly take these non severe warned storms with lightning over the 15 minute severe warned wind and rain with no thunder. I missed thunder and lightning so much.

[Sparky]

Good bit of thunder and lightning.

[boviscopophobic]

I got a few mediocre looks at the earlier severe-warned hailer over Stephens City. Of course, the best views were from the highway when there was nowhere to stop -- that's how it always goes.

Hailing over Boyce, VA

 

Storm east of Berryville, crossing over into WV. Severe warning cancelled at this time.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Mesos depicting some decent FGEN associated with a boundary at 850 mb. Looks like that is where the axis of heaviest rain will set up later tonight. Probably along I-95, and more towards NE MD and SE PA, and into SNJ.

[George BM]

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and
  Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles,
  Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest
  Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast
  Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In
  Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison,
  Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Rockingham,
  Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Stafford, Warren, and Western
  Loudoun. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy,
  Jefferson, and Western Pendleton.

* From this evening through Sunday morning

* Widespread showers will develop this evening along with possible
  thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall is expected. Average
  rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 3 inches with locally
  higher amounts around 4 inches possible.

* Heavy rainfall in short periods of time may cause creeks and
  streams to rapidly rise out of their banks along with the
  potential for flash flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

12z extended 34 hour Hrrr has a couple 5" lollies near DC and Baltimore. 

 

Here we go again [(Major govt interference)]

[87storms]

was in harrisonburg last night for a graduation ceremony, which ended up getting postponed midway through due to the incoming storms.  we were on the south side of the main line, but still got some breeze, torrents, and a couple of legitimate lightning strikes.  drove home too late to catch the stuff as it made its way further east, but that's 2 decent storms in a week for me in early may.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Cold May begats thunderstorm-less Summer

[yoda]

Depending on frontal passage timing, LWX in their afternoon AFD seems to think Friday afternoon could be our next chance for some severe weather 

[yoda]

Anyone got where the EURO places the WF/stationary front on Sunday?  This tidbit is from the Day 3 SPC OTLK:

Quote

 It should be noted that the ECMWF model has the stationary front
   much farther north into VA with more pronounced shear east of the
   low. This solution suggests severe storms, including supercells, may
   affect parts of VA. Model trends will continue to be monitored in
   later updates. In addition, a lack of early day convection across
   AL/MS may indicate the need for a westward expansion of the Slight
   Risk area in later updates.

[87storms]

Today has sneaky potential.  Plenty of sun out now.

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Today has sneaky potential.  Plenty of sun out now.

The 1630 SPC OTLK basically called today crap down here even with the MRGL risk still reaching us lol

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

The 1630 SPC OTLK basically called today crap down here even with the MRGL risk still reaching us lol

forecasts for sun vs clouds has always been notoriously bad here, so i'm not too surprised.  i don't like that there's a breeze right now...always prefer a stagnant airmass for severe chances.  just hunch forecasting without science behind it.

[87storms]

the hrrrrrrrrr has some activity moving through starting around 3-4pm.  we shall see...

[frd]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

the hrrrrrrrrr has some activity moving through starting around 3-4pm.  we shall see...

Line forming and moving East now

 https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=lwx&product=NCR&loop=yes

 

[yoda]

Radarscope has 2 rotation markers along the line

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Radarscope has 2 rotation markers along the line

Looking at LWX velocity scans I'm not sure i see much other than the abrupt windshift. 

[Mrs.J]

Just picked up over an inch of rain out of that cell over here in Frederick. Was pouring like crazy. Still raining. 

[MN Transplant]

Pouring at IAD.  Will be using the covered walkway to the garage.

[Tater Tot]

Not even a STW for the cell near Locust Grove?