2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[GramaxRefugee]

Emptied 1.18 from the gauge.

Evidence of wind, small green branches down. 

[Vice-Regent]

Roughly 0.80" or so in South Jerz. Much more to my south over Cape May Point.

[WEATHER53]

Thunderstorms again over city

[yoda]

Sunday could be interesting if the NAM is right... Euro would make it meh

[Kmlwx]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Sunday could be interesting if the NAM is right... Euro would make it meh

Are we looking at the same NAM? I don't see much of anything to get excited about on the NAM (18z OR 00z)

[Kmlwx]

10z HRRR sends a legit looking supercell over Central Maryland this PM

[Kmlwx]

Consistency at least - of course it could be consistently wrong...

But 11z HRRR has almost the same thing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Consistency at least - of course it could be consistently wrong...

But 11z HRRR has almost the same thing. 

Link?

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Link?

Example from the 11z run - using the COD site - https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 

[Kmlwx]

The stupid UD helicity swath map

[Kmlwx]

10z run of UD helicity swath map

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

10z run of UD helicity swath map

 

Those are pretty silly parameters.  Don't know why people use them. 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Those are pretty silly parameters.  Don't know why people use them. 

I tend to just use them to get an idea of where the "best" activity might be - and also to look for consistency. Other than that I don't really think they have much use. I've seen days where they look crazy and we get nothing as well as days where just a little green shows up and we get multiple TORs

[Eskimo Joe]

Gonna need to clear out ASAP if we want any chance at something today.  Satellite reallly has the wedge holding firm.  

[frd]

Getting brighter here currently.

Mount Holly thinks the warm front may reach as far North as Philly by late afternoon.  May need to watch the Delmarva later. 

from AM update 

FXUS61 KPHI 031344
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019

Another shortwave trough will begin approaching the region by late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. Thus, this time frame
will be a focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to
develop. Currently not expecting and of these storms to be severe,
but given modest instability during the late afternoon, cannot rule
out a rogue strong storm or two perhaps reaching severe criteria,
particularly across Delmarva.

 

 

[Kmlwx]

30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Gonna need to clear out ASAP if we want any chance at something today.  Satellite reallly has the wedge holding firm.  

Making a little progress - looks like DCA is out of the wedge and maybe even the southern parts of MoCo. 

[Eskimo Joe]

25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Making a little progress - looks like DCA is out of the wedge and maybe even the southern parts of MoCo. 

It's probably not happening today...the wedge is going to win today.  Mt. Holly's AFD supposes the clearing might work to Philly today.  If it get to Wilmington I'll be surprised.  You can see the low clouds just sitting there and being reinforced by flow off the ocean along US 50 from PG County east.

[mappy]

some nice storms that blew through the southern areas last night. just fringed up my way. 

JB shared this yesterday, beautiful pic. 

 

[mappy]

also, because its me, today is 20 years since this monster happened. 

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2019/05/03/may-3-4-1999-tornado-outbreak-and-the-bridge-creek-moore-f5/

 

[frd]

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

also, because its me, today is 20 years since this monster happened. 

 

Wow, an incredible collection of videos within that link, thanks for posting mappy ! 

[frd]

Long range has potential, after the 15 th. 

 

 

 

 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow, an incredible collection of videos within that link, thanks for posting mappy ! 

happy to share! i highly recommend the one where the camcorder was set up inside a house as the tornado passed by. the noise! 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

happy to share! i highly recommend the one where the camcorder was set up inside a house as the tornado passed by. the noise! 

 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

yup, that one! 

[Kmlwx]

Delmarva starting to erode the wedge but no such luck in the DC/Balt area. 

[Stormpc]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Delmarva starting to erode the wedge but no such luck in the DC/Balt area. 

Hmm...depends where you are at. Wedge eroded here in PW. 77/66 with clear skies, west winds. 

[Eskimo Joe]

26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Delmarva starting to erode the wedge but no such luck in the DC/Balt area. 

 

21 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Hmm...depends where you are at. Wedge eroded here in PW. 77/66 with clear skies, west winds. 

Over the past 30 min or so we've gained some hazy sun in Gaithersburg and the winds aren't ripping out of the SE anymore.  Maybe the front crawls north to a line along I-70 to Dover?

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Over the past 30 min or so we've gained some hazy sun in Gaithersburg and the winds aren't ripping out of the SE anymore.  Maybe the front crawls north to a line along I-70 to Dover?

Definitely looks like a little "tongue" of clearing is working it's way into central MoCo. 

[H2O]

Some good storms yesterday and wouldn't mind round 2 today.  Its been fairly sunny in Fx Co most of the morning.  CU developing IMBY

[mappy]

overcast and 60 in baltimore county