2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

.95" here. Still some heavy downpours in your yard. 

I was going to go to Cars and coffee down at the Hunt valley Mall but it's too wet unfortunately 

Did you see this segment on a recent MotorWeek episode?

 

[wxdude64]

Just dumped the rain gauge for the 7 am reading to CoCoRaHS. 2.62 inches for the day, that will set a new daily rainfall record for the date beating 2015's 1.84 inches. 

[CAPE]

Just over an inch here.

Hopefully this is winding down and things start to dry out. 

[CAPE]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Nice catch! I hadn't seen it.  Funny thing is I've done electrical work for John Davis at his personal house and he's very approachable super nice guy . I didn't know who it was the 1st visit ...until he spoke lol...then I thought I know that voice . We talked cars alot . He actually lives a modest life . He doesn't have a dozen hot rods or exotic cars sitting in the garage . ...cool dude .

That's pretty cool. He does have a distinctive voice.

I miss having a 'muscle car'. Been almost a year since I got rid of my srt8. This 2018 Overland I am leasing is so nice though. Loaded- it does everything lol. Plush interior, great sound system, and the V-6 has plenty of power. Plus 24 mpg hwy and takes regular fuel. That's the part that makes me not miss the srt.

[George BM]

It's time to play Guess the intensity of the Reston area tornado last night.

I'm going with an EF-0: 75mph winds

Guess away! You have until the NWS comes out with the official rating.

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, George BM said:

It's time to play Guess the intensity of the Reston area tornado last night.

I'm going with an EF-0: 75mph winds

Guess away! You have until the NWS comes out with the official rating.

Ef-0 sounds right to me 

[George BM]

30 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Ef-0 sounds right to me 

What wind speed?

[poolz1]

Had tornado warning yesterday eve with a pretty nice radar representation....couplet scooted about a mile just to my NW but still had a gust of 41 out of the East.  Very ominous look and feel outside.  Took a drive this morning but didnt find any damage and havent seen any reports of damage. 

.89" in the gauge this morning.

[Eskimo Joe]

Last Sunday was probably the event of the spring theres nothing promising on long range.  

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Last Sunday was probably the event of the spring theres nothing promising on long range.  

I mean LR really only goes out to 16 days and even that can be wildly inaccurate. We still have all of May for something to pop up. Some of our events don't present themselves until they are inside of 5-7 days. Plenty of time left - I'd say it's been a fairly active April compared to some other years - even if last night was relatively tame. 

[wxdude64]

4 hours ago, George BM said:

It's time to play Guess the intensity of the Reston area tornado last night.

I'm going with an EF-0: 75mph winds

Guess away! You have until the NWS comes out with the official rating.

I'll go very low end EF-1 85-95 mph

[George BM]

30 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I'll go very low end EF-1 85-95 mph

I'll put you down for 90mph.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

SIGTOR!

[NorthArlington101]

Would not have guessed that was an EF3 from the radar signatures or the debris, really. Guess the picture of the lifted bus was pretty impressive, when I think about it.

 

edit: woah, 159mph EF3. Close to an EF4. I want more damage pics!

[NorthArlington101]

[NorthArlington101]

Holy moly. Who has a screen grab of the couplet that produced this one? 

[NorthArlington101]

[Disc]

A very impressive storm for this area. Stronger than the Feb Appomattox tornado in 2016 and the Elon/Amherst tornado of last year. Both were also EF3s.

Edit: For some reason the animation won't work here. I guess it's not supported. So here's a link: https://i.imgur.com/aBXa6ku.gifv

 

[wxdude64]

14 hours ago, Disc said:

A very impressive storm for this area. Stronger than the Feb Appomattox tornado in 2016 and the Elon/Amherst tornado of last year. Both were also EF3s.

Edit: For some reason the animation won't work here. I guess it's not supported. So here's a link: https://i.imgur.com/aBXa6ku.gifv

 

Wow! That thing crossed 220 THREE times and only two injuries? Amazing and lots of lucky folks, that is a fairly busy road.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 4/20/2019 at 5:28 PM, Disc said:

A very impressive storm for this area. Stronger than the Feb Appomattox tornado in 2016 and the Elon/Amherst tornado of last year. Both were also EF3s.

Edit: For some reason the animation won't work here. I guess it's not supported. So here's a link: https://i.imgur.com/aBXa6ku.gifv

That was a great cell to watch.  I noticed that about 2 or 3 frames before the first TOR was issued there was an uptick in CG and the tops shot over 30kft.  I know there's some research either at SPC or one of the bigger met. universities into the possible correlation for CG frequency and when a storm goes severe.  I would imagine this event would probably qualify for study in that area.

[mappy]

15 confirmed tornadoes in VA on friday. Up to 75+ from Wed-Friday

... map of the EF3 ( it hasn't been shared elsewhere yet  ) 

[mappy]

hey @C.A.P.E. i think this is near you, right?

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
951 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...NWS WAKEFIELD CONFIRMS A BRIEF EF0 TORNADO IN DORCHESTER COUNTY MD ON APRIL 15
2019...

Location...2.5 miles southeast of Federalsburg on
           Bailey Store Road in Dorchester County MD.
Date...4/15/2019
Estimated Time...332 am EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...80 mph 
Maximum Path Width...100 yards
Path Length...0.5 miles 
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, mappy said:

hey @C.A.P.E. i think this is near you, right?

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
951 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...NWS WAKEFIELD CONFIRMS A BRIEF EF0 TORNADO IN DORCHESTER COUNTY MD ON APRIL 15
2019...

Location...2.5 miles southeast of Federalsburg on
           Bailey Store Road in Dorchester County MD.
Date...4/15/2019
Estimated Time...332 am EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...80 mph 
Maximum Path Width...100 yards
Path Length...0.5 miles 
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

That's pretty far south of me. I am in the northern part of Caroline county, which is pretty expansive north to south.

This was the same event that produced the stronger tornadoes in southern DE I believe, and could have been associated with the same localized cell(s)- which would make sense as that location is pretty close (just NW) of the Seaford/Laurel area.

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's pretty far south of me. I am in the northern part of Caroline county, which is pretty expansive north to south.

This was the same event that produced the stronger tornadoes in southern DE I believe, and could have been associated with the same localized cell(s)- which would make sense as that location is pretty close (just NW) of the Seaford/Laurel area.

Federalsburg is 22 miles away from Greensboro... or 25 minutes or so

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Federalsburg is 22 miles away from Greensboro... or 25 minutes or so

"Near" is relative. In the context of a very localized event, that was not near me. And I live NW of Greensboro, so its more like 25 miles. Also the tornado was 2.5 miles south of Federalsburg, so now we are pushing 30.

But thanks Yoda!

[high risk]

Friday has at least some "sleeper potential" for severe, especially for those along and east of the I-95 corridor.     The NAM3 allows for some moisture advection and some heating ahead of the front and send a nice line through the area during the evening rush.    The environment has only modest instability and modest shear, so severe would be isolated, but it would be a fun event.   The GFS has a lot more cloud cover which limits heating ahead of the front and would be a much more 'meh' event.   

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think what Yoda is trying to say is that although the tornado may have been 25 minutes away at ground level, on a global scale the tornado was BASICALLY over your house. 

Take the win and call it a great severe season man. 

Unless there’s red shoes under my house, I wouldn’t call the tornado close at all. 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know. I was joking. 

Me too

[yoda]

Lol

The Reston EF0 tornado in western Fairfax County was about 25 miles NW of me.  I consider that close by...  but to each his own I guess