2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[MN Transplant]

Up to 72.4 here.  Solar has been up above 500 W/m2 at times, but that is in comparison to >800 on a sunny day at this time of year.

[Stormpc]

Something interesting just west of Farmville Va. A little rotation.  

[wawarriors4]

74 here in FXBG right now, sun was poking through the clouds for a bit, but has since disappeared 

[Eskimo Joe]

Here comes the crapvection....

[NorthArlington101]

[NorthArlington101]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Meso fro 80% chance of a watch:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0401.html

 

Quote

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
VALID 191608Z - 191815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LLJ IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET AS IT
TRANSLATES INTO VA. SEVERAL LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS, WITH AND
WITHOUT LIGHTNING, ARE EVOLVING WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE.
CURRENT THINKING IS SUPERCELL THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL VA AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TOWARD MD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE HIGHER WITH THESE PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS, WHILE
WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE MORE COMMON WITH A FORCED SQUALL LINE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 04/19/201

 

[davidjd1994]

This is a little random but what would you guys recommend as the best free radar app?? I wanna be able to accurately track storms today 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, davidjd1994 said:

This is a little random but what would you guys recommend as the best free radar app?? I wanna be able to accurately track storms today 

For phone spend the $10 and get RadarScope...best $10 you'll ever spend.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, davidjd1994 said:

This is a little random but what would you guys recommend as the best free radar app?? I wanna be able to accurately track storms today 

I echo what Eskimo Joe said, RadarScope is worth every penny.

However, weather.cod.edu has a really great radar too. 

[Eskimo Joe]

SLGT extended to PA...5% TOR for everyone east of I-81.  Seems kinda aggressive given the cloud cover though.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190419_1630.html

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

SLGT extended to PA...5% TOR for everyone east of I-81.  Seems kinda aggressive given the cloud cover though.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190419_1630.html

Im surprised at the 5% for TOR, at least up this way. Makes sense further south. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

Im surprised at the 5% for TOR, at least up this way. Makes sense further south. 

Wonder if this is going to be one of those days where things get proactively warned because of transient rotation showing up on radar.

[davidjd1994]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

For phone spend the $10 and get RadarScope...best $10 you'll ever spend.

Thank you! 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if this is going to be one of those days where things get proactively warned because of transient rotation showing up on radar.

latest HRRR does suggest some of the storms may have rotation.

MD out for a tornado watch to our south. 

 

[mappy]

from SPCs 1630 outlook

Quote

The warm advection regime will spread northward across VA toward southeastern PA, where some increase in low-level shear and weak destabilization will favor a northward spread of the tornado and damaging wind threat with the warm sector convection.

With that, I would probably expect a tornado watch for us this afternoon. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

from SPCs 1630 outlook

With that, I would probably expect a tornado watch for us this afternoon. 

Yup. The meso for us is outlined in red too, which seems to be a subtle hint a tornado watch is favored.

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. The meso for us is outlined in red too, which seems to be a subtle hint a tornado watch is favored.

Yeah and the MD for us mentions an isolated tornado threat, as well as in the text

Quote

Tornado threat will be higher with these pre-squall line supercells, whilewind damage should be more common with a forced squall line later this afternoon.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Quote

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 90
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Northern Virginia
     The eastern West Virginia Panhandle
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday from 1245 PM until Midnight EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Storms will spread northward through the afternoon into
   northern Virginia and Maryland, with the potential for a couple of
   tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts.  Later this afternoon into
   early tonight, additional severe storms will move into the watch
   from the southwest, with a continuing threat for a couple of
   tornadoes, as well as damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Baltimore MD to
   30 miles south southwest of Charlottesville VA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

 

[mappy]

BAM

 

[Hyphnx]

AKQ late to the party?

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

31 minutes ago, davidjd1994 said:

This is a little random but what would you guys recommend as the best free radar app?? I wanna be able to accurately track storms today 

RadarNow! Is a pretty good free one

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Hyphnx said:

AKQ late to the party?

They're likely next.  Their CWA is more under the other meso that @mappy mentioned:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0402.html

[NorthArlington101]

Last tweet I’ll share for now:

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

AKQ late to the party?

next, as EJ said. the mid-Atlantic MD came out first, so makes sense. 

[mappy]

Also, SPC issues watches, not the individual CWAs (though they do coordinate together). 

I would expect both Wakefield and Mt Holly CWA to be put under watches (or parts of the CWA). 

[JakkelWx]

MBY under the 5% Tornado risk. Cloud cover isn't too bad over here

76/69

[Eskimo Joe]

The SVR warned cell near Brokenburg is tightening up a bit...wouldn't shock me if LWX pulls to TOR trigger.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The SVR warned cell near Brokenburg is tightening up a bit...wouldn't shock me if LWX pulls to TOR trigger.

a butterfly could fart that causes rotation and LWX will issue a warning for it. 

[H2O]

more filtered sun now than this morning