2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Nothing like waking up in hatched 45% wind. Could be a fun day.

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Really hope we can manage some sun.  Satellite is not promising though.  

Occasionally getting brief bursts of filtered sun.  We aren't going to lose the higher clouds, but if we can burn off the lower stuff it'll help.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Occasionally getting brief bursts of filtered sun.  We aren't going to lose the higher clouds, but if we can burn off the lower stuff it'll help.

Agreed.  Gotta push temps above the 73 to 75 degree range.

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed.  Gotta push temps above the 73 to 75 degree range.

       I still think that the key is how widespread the wave of early-mid afternoon showers (storms?) is.      HRRR is pretty aggressive with it, and the model takes us from that 73-75 range back to the upper 60s later in the day when the better forcing and best wind profiles arrive.      If we can avoid widespread cooling with round 1, I think we're in much better shape for round 2.

[Eskimo Joe]

Healthy little tornado warned cell in far SW VA.  

[NorthArlington101]

First tornado warning of the day in Virginia. Looks decent on radar too. Not taking much to get things to spin.

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Healthy little tornado warned cell in far SW VA.  

         Ya know, I've been saying that we need to make round 1 wimpy to increase our chances with round 2, but maybe there is some tornado potential in our area with round 1?    The shear profiles won't be as good as they will be later in the day, but they'll be decent, and we'll actually have better low-level instability. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, high risk said:

         Ya know, I've been saying that we need to make round 1 wimpy to increase our chances with round 2, but maybe there is some tornado potential in our area with round 1?    The shear profiles won't be as good as they will be later in the day, but they'll be decent, and we'll actually have better low-level instability. 

 

3 TORs in VA/NC...they might need a quick watch box if this first round goes giddy up down there.

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

3 TORs in VA/NC...they might need a quick watch box if this first round goes giddy up down there.

          yeah, surprised we haven't even seen an MD down there yet.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, high risk said:

          yeah, surprised we haven't even seen an MD down there yet.

Heads up Bassett and Stanleytown, VA.  Thing looks to be tightening up in the last 2 frames.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, high risk said:

          yeah, surprised we haven't even seen an MD down there yet.

Here comes the box:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0399.html

[southmdwatcher]

74 degrees and breaks of good sun coming north.from Charles County 

[Eskimo Joe]

Yikes Oak Level, VA.

[NorthArlington101]

Yikes Oak Level, VA.

Rotation looks great. Can’t find a CC drop though.

[NorthArlington101]

Donut hole presentation on radar.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Rotation looks great. Can’t find a CC drop though.

 

The 0.5° scan is at ~1300 feet but it extends up towards on the 0.9° and 1.3° so it's definitely wound up.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Donut hole presentation on radar.

*Maybe* there's the CC Drop?  It was there and gone right as it went over Oak Level.

[NorthArlington101]

TDS or not, surprised they haven’t extended the warning yet. This storm is racing NE.

[Eskimo Joe]

New TOR for Franklin County, VA coming out.

[Eskimo Joe]

Red Box going out for NC and VA now until 21:00 UTC:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0088.html

[NorthArlington101]

Maybe confirmed TORR? Can’t tell if this local radio station just doesn’t know what a tornado warning means.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Maybe confirmed TORR? Can’t tell if this local radio station just doesn’t know what a tornado warning means.
 

I would say that's a "legit" report given how detailed the tweet is and they reiterated that it's believed to have been confirmed.

[NorthArlington101]

I would say that's a "legit" report given how detailed the tweet is and they reiterated that it's believed to have been confirmed.

Pretty sure we have a TDS at this point

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Pretty sure we have a TDS at this point

 

Per RNK they have a TDS near Sontag.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Pretty sure we have a TDS at this point

Quote

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1036 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

VAC067-191500-
/O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-190419T1500Z/
FRANKLIN VA-
1036 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR 
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 1035 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SONTAG, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENHOOK...
WESTERN SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...
UNION HALL...
SONTAG...
AND NORTHWEST SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE.

 

[George BM]

I'll say this... so far the clouds are SLIGHTLY thinner than they were on Sunday.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the cell east of Rocky Mount is winding down.  Seems to be slamming into more stable air in the mountain but no doubt it was on the ground for some time.

 

EDIT:  Damage still being reported into RNK east of Rocky Mount.  Wonder if they drop another TOR.

[Eskimo Joe]

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1041 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT 
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AFFECTING
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING FROM 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING INTO TONIGHT.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM MO/AR AND INTO TN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO KY TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE FROM TN  
THIS MORNING TO EASTERN KY BY THIS EVENING AND INTO OH BY LATE 
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DELIVER STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE MID- 
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN US TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUS, WIDESPREAD 
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH
BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE HAZARDS.

SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE AND DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE UPPER 60S. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 60 KNOTS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY, WITH SURFACE
WINDS EAST OF SOUTH VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT.

INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS CAMS WILL 
LIKELY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. BOTH ROUNDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE 
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO BEING THE 
MAIN THREATS. AN ENHANCED TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA, 
WHERE THE HIGHEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT EXISTS. A SLIGHT 
RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION, WITH THE
LOWEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF WV.

THE OTHER WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN DUE TO REPETITIVE AND/OR TRAINING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
1-1.5 INCHES SEEM MOST PROBABLE, BUT LOCALIZED TOTALS OF UP TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SOUTH/EASTWARD, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND LATEST HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA ARE IN
JUST AS MUCH OF A RISK AS THE METRO CORRIDOR FOR FLASH 
FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY PUSH EAST DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD THREAT
LIKELY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT IN THE METRO AREAS, AND 2 AM ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOST AREAS. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Impressive damage reports coming out of Sontag...sounds like a fire truck crashed due to trees coming down on or around it on the road.

[NorthArlington101]

 

Check out the bus on the right side.