2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[andyhb]

Going to hit Georgetown shortly if it stays down.

[AlexD1990]

That was scary as **** just for the record. live just outside of Lewes and for a moment it looked like that velocity was gonna come right up us9 and hit us. Not fun calling your elderly mother at 3 in the morning and tellling her to take shelter

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

[SlowerLowerDE]

That was really scary.  The lightening and wind were really bad.  I wish we had better news coverage here.  Del Elec Coop outage map shows lots of power outages mostly in the western parts of Kent and Sussex counties.  Our power is still out and will likely remain that way for awhile.  I hope no one was hurt.

[AlexD1990]

Seeing some pics and reports of damage in Laurel(DE) I'm sure we will find out more in the morning. Hoping no one was hurt.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

[PrinceFrederickWx]

@yoda

I’m good- I slept through it lol

Looks like I got 0.54”.

[SlowerLowerDE]

Power is back on.  No damage here.  News is not good.  Sussex County First Alert (Facebook) says that there is a lot of damage in this area and advises us to stay home.  A number of roads are closed including RT 13 and Alt. 13.  Schools are on a 2 hour delay.  That is all I have from here.  Am not going out to add to the confusion.

[frd]

Not nearly as bad up here above the canal, but that was a wicked cells/line from 2:45 AM to about 3:16 AM.

We were in a warned area at that time from Mount Holly.  Almost like a mini derecho. 

Continuous heavy rain, blinding sheets and constant high wind and then gusts, maybe up to 55 to 60 . 

The only missing element were winds higher to say 70 or more. Thought there would be many downed tree but got very, very lucky. Only broken limbs.    

[smokeybandit]

Only got 0.68", but it was more than enough to flood the back yard again

[MN Transplant]

0.12” and it appears I am missing the pop-ups this morning too.

[SlowerLowerDE]

RT 13 North bound is open now.  South bound is one lane south of Laurel Village.  There are still a lot of power outages. 1.28” rain here.  It’s a beautiful day weathewise.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[EB89]

Some pictures from my family in Laurel. Luckily they are fine and they had no damage. 

[EB89]

[EB89]

[EastCoast NPZ]

Wow.  Not good.^^

[usedtobe]

.67" in the gauge at 9:30.  Last night at around 2:30 or so there was a velocity couplet in Clavert county but i don't see any reports of a possible tornado. I did lose power for about an hour. 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[mappy]

fun evening yesterday -- multiple tornado warnings to my west. but i slept through the overnight storms. 

[yoda]

We do it all again Friday afternoon into Friday night looks like... from this afternoon's AFD:

Quote

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The area will reside underneath an upper level ridge axis on
Thursday as surface high pressure remains situated to our north
and east. As a result, above normal temperatures and partly
sunny skies will persist, with conditions remaining dry. Late
Thursday and into Thursday night, an upper trough will dig
southward into the Mississippi Valley and approach the northern
Gulf Coast as a broad area of surface low pressure tracks into
the Great Lakes. The upper trough will become cutoff near the
Tennessee River Valley on Friday as surface low pressure nears
the Ohio Valley. This setup will deliver an anomalously moist
airmass over the region with precipitable water values nearing
record values in excess of 1.50 inches as southerly winds
increase. Aloft, the wind field will also be strengthening out
of the south southwest, with guidance indicating the potential
for in excess of 50 knots at 850mb. Additionally, the upper jet
appears to be in a favorable position as the upper low shifts
northward. Should model guidance continue indicate this setup,
our region will reside in a very favorable environment Friday
afternoon through Friday night for the potential of strong to
severe thunderstorms and flooding. We will continue to monitor
this potential threat and impacts the next several days.

[yoda]

EF2 tornado confirmed in Sussex County DE per NWS PHL

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

[SlowerLowerDE]

I have to say that the NWS report for the Laurel area reads like the damage is much milder than what we are seeing.  There were more than “several” homes and barns damaged.  

[JakkelWx]

DT seems excited about this weekends threat - cutoff trough that tilts negative with strong shear just 1 mile above the surface.

[yoda]

Not sure how DT is on severe weather... but he makes it sound ominous for Friday into Friday night

https://mobile.twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/1117982722838994944

[Kmlwx]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Not sure how DT is on severe weather... but he makes it sound ominous for Friday into Friday night

https://mobile.twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/1117982722838994944

15% (we are at the northern extreme still) remains on the new Day 4 outlook from SPC. Looks like a dynamic system - though GFS/FV3 instability isn't all that high which seems like it might be a main limiting factor. Then again, the GFS/FV3 were low on that stuff as well for the past event - once it got into NAM range things looked juicier. We'll see how this one plays out. 

[southmdwatcher]

The Euro had the secondary low pressure yesterday. This is at 84 hours, so take it for what that is worth. The 12km NAM just ran and has the main low heading into the Great Lakes, as a secondary forms in MS/AL late Thursday and rides northeastward to around Knoxville TN as a 991mb low at 8pm Friday night. Could be quite stormy with the pressure falls, backed winds and night time low level jet increase as we go through Friday evening through Saturday morning.

[Kmlwx]

Took a look at the GFS - it gets dews into the low to mid 60s into the area. It looks like maybe temps are keeping a lid on the instability, though. It has a good chunk of the area getting into the upper 60s to right around 70 but not higher. Would think that to juice the instability up more we'll need mid 70s or higher. 

System looks very dynamic and 850mb winds are easily 55-60kts or higher. Don't think shear will be the limiting factor here. If we can juice CAPE up a bit more I don't think we'll have any trouble having some severe. Not biting on a decent event yet - and definitely not biting as hard as DT seems to be. In our area - we will always find a way to fail at severe. 

GFS tends to never look that good at longer ranges, though. It's just now coming into NAM range and long range NAM = lol. 

At 500mb this looks more impressive than the last system. 

CIPS is not that enthused either at this point - there are one or two decent analogs but a whole lot of nothing showing up as well. 

[Kmlwx]

Temps up a touch on the 12Z GFS but dews dropped a bit. Instability still looks like the limiting factor. GFS has overcast skies pretty much all day Friday which is probably a big reason why this is the case. FV3 looks pretty similar at this point. 

 

[yoda]

@Kmlwx

This afternoon's LWX AFD seems to think otherwise re instability... I guess ample would be like around 1000 J/KG:

Quote

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep upper trough will extend from the western Great Lakes
southward into the northern Gulf, while a broad area of low
pressure will reside near the Ohio Valley on Friday. As a
result, an anomalously moist airmass will engulf the region with
precipitable water values nearing record values for the month
of April in excess of 1.50 inches on the heels of increasing
southerly flow, and dewpoints well into the 60s. This will aid
in providing ample instability ahead of a strong frontal
boundary to our west as the upper trough cuts off near the TN/OH
Valley. Strong PVA, favorable upper jet placement, and
strengthening/veering wind field aloft (850mb ~50kts) will
promote the chance for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
Friday night. In addition to the severe potential, the
anomalously moist atmosphere mentioned above will bring a threat
for flooding as well. Deterministic and ensemble guidance all
in consensus with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
areawide Friday through Friday night, with some locally higher
amounts possible as well. Given the run to run consistency the
last several days amongst model guidance, confidence is
increasing on seeing impacts across our CWA with this
severe/flooding threat. Stay tuned to the forecast the next
several days as we get a better handle on the timing and
specific impacts to our area.

[Kmlwx]

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

@Kmlwx

This afternoon's LWX AFD seems to think otherwise re instability... I guess ample would be like around 1000 J/KG:

They also say "dewpoints well into the 60s" - which the GFS twins certainly do not show. Low 60s at best for most of us - and even lower for some of us. Well into the 60s would definitely aid in the instability department. Better heating would also help - but cloud cover looks ample. Of course if the front is strong enough that can also help us to offset meager instability. If the GFS starts helping us out with the dews and temps a bit more I'll be more likely to bite. We still have plenty of time.