2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

TW just outside of CHO left to expire. While I'm listing storms to watch, the one outside Lake Monticello has space to work and some low-level rotation.

That's my cell to watch.  If there's one that could overperform...it's that or the chesterfield storm.

[southmdwatcher]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

That's my cell to watch.  If there's one that could overperform...it's that or the chesterfield storm.

The Chesterfield storm is heading for the southern Maryland magnet. And it certainly has parameter space all to it's self for a while.

[Amped]

FDK storm rotation is actually over New Market it appears.

Might have hit Urbana and Ijamsville if anything touched the ground.

[NorthArlington101]

 

[Mrs.J]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

FDK storm rotation is actually over New Market it appears.

Might have hit Urbana and Ijamsville if anything touched the ground.

That is what I was thinking. Apparently the part of the cell that was rotating went over my neighborhood from what I can tell. 

[SilentTalkie]

Out in Crozet... nothing came to pass with the tornado warning. Just a light shower. 

[Mrs.J]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Do we know exactly where that was taken?  I cannot tell from the photo. 

[Eskimo Joe]

For the 2nd batch tonight, you need to look towards SW VA or S-Central WV.  If that line goes boom and you start seeing a ton of reports coming out of it then we're set for an interesting night. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Mrs.J said:

Do we know exactly where that was taken?  I cannot tell from the photo. 

Not sure why both parts of the tweet didn't send -- here ya go

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Meso for heavy rain potential:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=126&yr=2019

[Jrlg1181]

4 minutes ago, SilentTalkie said:

Out in Crozet... nothing came to pass with the tornado warning. Just a light shower. 

1.52 inches of rain just over Afton mt from Crozet at the edge of  Waynesboro, very little thunder despite being near the tornado warning.... some brief winds...

[Eskimo Joe]

Storm along frederick/moco boundary and in Loudoun County trying to go spinny?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Storm along frederick/moco boundary and in Loudoun County trying to go spinny?

Both have some beautiful hooks but haven't been able to put it together for whatever reason.

TW for storm N of Roanoke, that's downstream of me again. Maybe I can hear some thunder this time.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Both have some beautiful hooks but haven't been able to put it together for whatever reason.

TW for storm N of Roanoke, that's downstream of me again. Maybe I can hear some thunder this time.

Just not enough instability to get the rotations to stick. It's <800j/kg regionwide.  Probably the only thing preventing a boom scenario.

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Just not enough instability to get the rotations to stick. It's <800j/kg regionwide.  Probably the only thing preventing a boom scenario.

It might in a lil while when the LLJ strengthens some more across the region and when the CF gets closer

[NorthArlington101]

Storm S of Stanardsville trying to rotate again.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Storm S of Stanardsville trying to rotate again.

TW'd. Getting good at picking out rotation 

[NorthArlington101]

Not bad.

 

[NorthArlington101]

This looks fairly legit.

[NorthArlington101]

Rotation south of New Windsor has looked interesting for a little while.

[janetjanet998]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Rotation south of New Windsor has looked interesting for a little while.

I'm surpassed it isn't TOR wanted...tight rotation....perhaps a  small CC drop?

[janetjanet998]

 

[NorthArlington101]

It really has. Just looked at the last few frames. That one could definitely pop briefly.

There goes the TW.

[Mrs.J]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It really has. Just looked at the last few frames. That one could definitely pop briefly.

They just issued a warning on it 

[janetjanet998]

I don't get it should have been warned long ago

 

edit: 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
731 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  
  NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...  
  
* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 731 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER WESTMINSTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  

 

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Could probably justify warning the other circulation SW of New Windsor as well.

[janetjanet998]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe, but it’s far less robust than a few minutes ago. 

The dominant cell still looks good.

eta: it’s looking pretty good now. Two very interesting cells...

so there was a train of three...the first one was the original TOR warned storm...its gone....the current TOR warned storms is the "second" one....and the hooky one behind that #3

now is there #4 west of number #3 now,,another mini storm

and perhaps even a 5th south of #4 now along the river ?

 

 

[janetjanet998]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0642 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND FAR  
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 67...  
  
VALID 142342Z - 150045Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH  
67.  
  
DISCUSSION...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN  
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE  
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 67 FOR THE NEXT HOUR  
OR TWO. GIVEN THE LOW-TOPPED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND VERY LITTLE  
LIGHTNING, THE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL WITH A  
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IT IS  
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE, AS MOST GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO  
CHANGE MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE  
THREAT FROM THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND 01Z.  

[Eskimo Joe]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0355.html

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0355
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...West Virginia and far southwest Virginia.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...

   Valid 150031Z - 150130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat continues across severe
   thunderstorm watch 70.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has strengthened across West Virginia in the
   last 30 minutes with several stronger cores now along with a few
   bowing segments. This can likely be attributed to the stronger deep
   layer ascent, as well as a strengthening low-level jet. This
   strengthening low-level jet can be seen on the RLX VWP as winds have
   increased 20 knots between 1 and 2 km in the last hour. The stronger
   storms are currently in the northern half of the watch, and this
   trend is expected to continue based on the orientation of the line
   and the presence of the stronger deep layer ascent.

   ..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

   LAT...LON   39398072 39528026 39547963 39177933 38307964 37637997
               37218031 36888079 36778147 36848178 37138185 37988160
               39398072 

 

[yoda]

The line in WV moving east and northeast is currently being warned for winds to 70mph