2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

It's March...and even though we probably have a few more winter weather threats ahead...it's time to launch the 2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Pattern stuff can go in here, discussion leading up to events and more. Same guidelines as past years. Thread will probably idle for a month or two - let's hope for some general excitement this year. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It looks like El Nino is making a comeback, which doesn't bode well for severe weather. The +AO pattern in the long range may produce, at least rainbands around March 15th:

(Thunderstorm activity is down 50% right now.) 

[Kmlwx]

Even in low activity years - it only takes a single day/event to really make a or break our severe season around these parts. A region-wide significant squall line can make a season pretty memorable. Though I'd like multiple storm days ideally. 

Thunderstorms are one of the few redeeming qualities about triple H weather around here. 

[George BM]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Even in low activity years - it only takes a single day/event to really make a or break our severe season around these parts. A region-wide significant squall line can make a season pretty memorable. Though I'd like multiple storm days ideally. 

Thunderstorms are one of the few redeeming qualities about triple H weather around here. 

(August 26, 2003) (June 4, 2008) (June 29, 2012) all featured a good MCS for at least a good portion of the region... June 29, 2012 obviously being the best area-wide event (except for the Maryland/Pennsylvania line).  

[yoda]

I know it's in the SE forum... but parts of GA and AL got hit hard today... reports of at least 22 dead in Lee County Alabama from two tornadoes

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

I know it's in the SE forum... but parts of GA and AL got hit hard today... reports of at least 22 dead in Lee County Alabama from two tornadoes

Yeah I saw that. Horrifying in all honesty.

 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Unfortunately today's event is already the deadliest tornado outbreak since the April 27th-28th outbreak in 2014. I believe there were 34 deaths as a result of that event, though that outbreak covered a much larger region of the country. Of course it only takes one strong EF3+ tornado tracking through a residential area to have a significant number of deaths. The toll in Lee County, Ala. alone stands at 22 and may rise further unfortunately. Datasets located here:

http://spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/fatalmap.php

Wow... very sad

[yoda]

Wow

https://mobile.twitter.com/USTornadoes/status/1102414787034693632

[yoda]

NWS Paducah almost took a direct hit this morning from a tornado

1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

A Large Tornado just came really close to the @NWSPaducah office. It passed just SE of the Office. They had a Visual Confirmation of it. Has caused "Major Damage". They had to take shelter and transferred ops to @NWSLouisville but have taken back ops. #KYwx

 

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

NWS said they narrowly missed tornado.

 

[yoda]

Surprised an NWS office hasn't taken a direct hit before 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSPaducah/status/1106201376009408513

[yoda]

No talk about the marginal risk for i95 and east this afternoon? 5% wind and 2% tor

[Kmlwx]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

No talk about the marginal risk for i95 and east this afternoon? 5% wind and 2% tor

Been busy at work all morning - what a disaster. Maybe we can eke out a rumble of thunder. 

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Been busy at work all morning - what a disaster. Maybe we can eke out a rumble of thunder. 

Probably the only outlook we'll see for the next few weeks anyway

[Kmlwx]

Well south and east appears to be the site for any action this PM. 

[George BM]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Well south and east appears to be the site for any action this PM. 

I'm wondering whether anything will try to pop up along the front northwest of I-95 looking at recent satellite trends. Not necessarily talking anything too big but perhaps at least some t-showers.

#Notanexpertopinion

[MDphotog]

30 minutes ago, George BM said:

I'm wondering whether anything will try to pop up along the front northwest of I-95 looking at recent satellite trends. Not necessarily talking anything too big but perhaps at least some t-showers. 

#Notanexpertopinion

Yeah you would think so looking at tonight and tomorrows forecast.  It's almost feels like late spring outside right now with the warmth and humidity.  The winds look to shift between 8 - 10pm so maybe a little later for us.  I would try figure out how to read a skew-t chart, but I'm supposed to be working on school work and that is not weather related. Oh well.

#AlsoNotanexpertopinion

[NorthArlington101]

HRRR doesn't look particularly impressive. Wouldn't shock me to see a spinner form around/over the Bay though.

[WxUSAF]

Severely mostly cloudy

[87storms]

today is a reminder that we get epic busts in warm weather season as well.  forecast called for showers and i don't think i received a drop of rain imby.  imagine if the forecast was for snow.

[Kmlwx]

41 minutes ago, 87storms said:

today is a reminder that we get epic busts in warm weather season as well.  forecast called for showers and i don't think i received a drop of rain imby.  imagine if the forecast was for snow.

NAM 3k was pretty dry if not completely dry for a lot of locations in our area. 

[Sparky]

Heard a few rumbles of thunder in the last hour.  Cells were southeast of me for the most part except earlier today around 4pm when I got clipped with some momentarily heavy rain.

[yoda]

LWX did issue a STW around 9pm... I think that's the first of the season 

[Kmlwx]

11 hours ago, yoda said:

LWX did issue a STW around 9pm... I think that's the first of the season 

I had hail in Columbia just before 9pm. Smaller than pea sized - a few good CG strikes too. That's a win in my book.

[09-10 analogy]

Got quite windy but didn’t notice my friend TSTM making an appearance. Her accomplice TRW++ certainly had a long stay last year — maybe too long. A lot of people seemed to be getting sick of his schict and wanted more of a light and sound show; the open bar was just watered-down concoctions you could hardly call drinks, and so enraged the patrons they,d thrown them on the floor, making the carpet so sodden it had to be replaced in places. 

Still, hopefully TSTMS will get an extended stay this spring and summer, backed by a high-powered dBZ band. Her manager DSTBLZN has been known to show up too late in the day to get the deal signed, unfortunately. And RW++ wont chew up the scenery as much, we hope, this year.

Maybe even a special guest surprise visit from TVS but he usually doesn’t tour out our way. Sometimes TOR is on the marquee but she rarely shows up in person and when she does it’s usually either a total disaster or such a brief walk-on you’re apt to lose sight of it since the overall TSTMS show is so rocking at that point. Plus her managers CAPE and SRH, when they do consider our area a venue (which they rarely do), can’t seem to agree on the same time so that TOR can really put on the kind of a**kicking  +FC show that can be so dangerously majestic. Because once an +FC takes the stage, things get so rambunctious that some patrons leave the venue entirely and those that stay ... well they,re taking quite the risk. Which is why a successful booking of an +FC is so controversial. But for some people it’s the show of a lifetime, even better (if a bit riskier) than “Hamilton.”

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe some storms with this one. 

[Kmlwx]

The old GFS has some severe risk maybe next week. 

[George BM]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

The old GFS has some severe risk maybe next week. 

Northwest of Baltimore Monday afternoon.

#Digitalsevere

#Soon.

 

[Kmlwx]

The only times it is acceptable for dews to be above 60 is when it will bring a severe risk. #ChangeMyMind

The setup doesn't look super robust but at least it's something to track. 

[George BM]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The only times it is acceptable for dews to be above 60 is when it will bring a severe risk. #ChangeMyMind

The setup doesn't look super robust but at least it's something to track. 

Or good tropical .

[Kmlwx]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Time to dust this one off. Hasn't failed us yet. 

I'm not in yet - just making that clear