OBS thread 2P Mar 3-10A Mar 4 (snow, possible sleet s fringe)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Very common especially late season for the Park to accumulate but Midtown elsewhere has little. 

Yeah but even the Park doesn't get double digit snowfalls after the end of February unless you have a bonafide Arctic airmass in place- the last two times it happened were March 1993 and March 1960.  If we get one of those again in March then that will be the last piece of the puzzle for the things that haven't happened in the new millenium.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also very normal for March.  I've seen more storms like this in March than I have in any other month.  In early season (November) snowstorms, JFK does better than LGA because a NE wind keeps LGA milder.  We saw that in November 2012 especially.  But neither location did extremely well, the really big snowfall totals were off to our NE- Boston to Providence got the real deal and finally got their storm.  I cataloged the whole storm, we had 7 hours of snow and 6 hours of a mix or rain.  There was only a little bit of sleet.

4 pm to 6 pm rain/snow mix

6 pm to 11 pm snow

11 pm - 11:30 rain/snow mix

11:30 - 12 midnight back to all snow

12 midnight - 12:30 am back to a rain/snow mix

12:30 am - 1 am back to all snow

1 am - 4 am back to a rain/snow mix with some intermittent sleet for a brief time

4 am - 5 am back to all snow as the storm concluded

The temperature remained around 33 for the entire storm, dipping to 32 and for a few hours during the heavier bursts of snow.

 

Those 2 really big events last March were the exception to the general rule for this time of year.

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

 Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Event post-mortem...

Call: 6-10" NYC Metro, north shore LI, NE Jersey, lower Hudson Valley and CT

3-6" with mixing Jersey shore, south shore and the forks.

 

What worked:  

Lower Hudson Valley, NE Jersey, Connecticut.    Generally aligned with expectations there as dendritic growth was solid, band cranked out 2"/hr snow rates.  Widespread 6-10" totals verify.

The mixing idea along the Jersey shore, south shore and forks held down totals there.  3-6" will verify for many, but barely.

 

What busted:  Central Park ASOS is reporting 5", which is an inch lower than my forecast.  I consider this a bust for Manhattan, likely a chunk of Queens and the north shore LI pending OKX final storm report. IP line was far just enough north during the  evening we lost snow to sleet, that makes a difference.  That, plus a temp of 33 led to very little accumulation until the band came through.  As a result, busted too high on low end of range for lower Manhattan, northern Brooklyn and I think Queens (though I may squeak by there, 4-8" would've been a better forecast).    I consider SI and south shore Brooklyn as a coastal area, I'm not overly surprised there was less snow and mixing there.

 

In short, the northward tongue in the mid-levels was battling against some pretty impressive snowfall rates.  Should've been more cautious in LI and in NYC specifically given this is March. 

That last part x1000.  Unless we have a bigtime Arctic airmass in place just prior to the storm (temps not higher than low 20s at the highest), the highest that should be forecast for the urban areas is 4-8 inches.  We get a lot of those in March and even early April.

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

This would have been a bigger snowstorm if there was a nice high to the north or the storm bombed out.

It did bomb out but too late for the city. SNE got hammered even with the fast mover 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like they finished with 5.0”.

At 6:48 AM EST, Central Park [New York (Manhatta Co, NY] ASOS reports SNOW of 5.00 INCH

NYC now up to 20.5" on the season, may finish there depending on what happens on Friday.  What are the airport totals, Chris?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Seems like NNJ and LHV, Rockland, Orange and Westchester a lot of 8-10 inch totals. The sweet spot this storm.

Well except for SNE lol, they had an HECS event with up to 18" and snowfall of 4 inches per hour.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

It did bomb out but too late for the city. SNE got hammered even with the fast mover 

Yes, and their latitude helped them too as it often does.  You need a true Arctic airmass in place to get those kinds of totals down here with an event this late in the season.

Remember the April Fools storm when they got close to 30"?  We had 1-2 inches down here lol.

[dmillz25]

5” total here in bed stuy. @purduewx80 was you close to that?

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those 2 really big events last March were the exception to the general rule for this time of year.

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

 Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

What years did those happen, Chris?  Were those storms that favored SNE over NYC too? It's interesting how Suffolk County often does better with storms that favor SNE over NYC.

 

edit- sorry I read the snowfall amounts first and got distracted and didn't read where you said that happened last March haha.

That March equinox storm was absolutely epic for locations east of here.  I didn't realize the south fork got so much snow in the mid March storm though!  Did that storm favor SNE (Boston) over NYC?  One of those late developing Miller B's like the April Fools Day storm?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

This was a really interesting storm.  I stayed offline during it so I could follow the meanderings of the rain/snow line and drive around to see where it was snowing.  We had a lot of wet snow on the trees and power lines before the final changeover occurred at 1 am and three hours of a rain/snow mix fixed any danger of a power outage around here lol.

 

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, and their latitude helped them too as it often does.  You need a true Arctic airmass in place to get those kinds of totals down here with an event this late in the season.

Remember the April Fools storm when they got close to 30"?  We had 1-2 inches down here lol.

Yes definitely latitude helps in March but it's only early March and the city has had some solid snowfalls this early in March. If the city saw the kind of rates SNE got the city would've performed way better, it was sticking over an inch an hour where I live during the heaviest rates but they didn't sustain beyond like an hour or two.  

[LibertyBell]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yes definitely latitude helps in March but it's only early March and the city has had some solid snowfalls this early in March. If the city saw the kind of rates SNE got the city would've performed way better, it was sticking over an inch an hour where I live during the heaviest rates but they didn't sustain beyond like an hour or two.  

I'd love to see it happen, since March 1993, our highest March snowfall has been 8-9"

March 2009 could have done it too had it been moving a tad slower, you cant get any earlier in March than the 1st lol and all the major cities got 8"+  Our Howard Beach spotter measured 10.5" in that one.

 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, hooralph said:

I think it's the logistics of getting a million + students on the move that has them avoiding any morning-of calls. Because of the scheduled end time of 4-5 AM and marginal temps I was telling my wife and son all weekend he'd have school. I hate to play armchair mayor, but this was a mistake. When you remember how many hundreds of thousands of kids are dependent on being in school for their meals, how many parents don't have the ability to just stay or work from home, it's is hugely disruptive.

As a social worker in a school I understand about the meals, but keep in mind the schools don't feed the kids on holidays and weekends. There could be some contingencies for this, maybe send kids home with a care package of dry goods; the farmers would love the subsidies. Just spitballin here....nd remember, the lawyers of the world helped create this situation. Schools are sued regularly these days. In mu kid's school alone this week, a kid broke an arm in gym and she sprained her wrist and was sent for x rays. I personally have nothing against lawyers, almost became one, and know people who have.

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

2 kids at home (5 year old and 10 month old) = non productive work at home day which will have to be made up during the rest of the week.  I probably would have been happier if it actually snowed a decent amount, sledding would have been more fun.

They will be driving before you know it. And then you'll be worried about them driving in the stuff. Trust me.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yes definitely latitude helps in March but it's only early March and the city has had some solid snowfalls this early in March. If the city saw the kind of rates SNE got the city would've performed way better, it was sticking over an inch an hour where I live during the heaviest rates but they didn't sustain beyond like an hour or two.  

Yeah we had rates like that here between 9-11 pm or so it looked like confetti coming down from the skies!  I kept wishing it was during the day when it would have been very photogenic, but that would have probably made it stick even less around here.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

As a social worker in a school I understand about the meals, but keep in mind the schools don't feed the kids on holidays and weekends. There could be some contingencies for this, maybe send kids home with a care package of dry goods; the farmers would love the subsidies. Just spitballin here....nd remember, the lawyers of the world helped create this situation. Schools are sued regularly these days. In mu kid's school alone this week, a kid broke an arm in gym and she sprained her wrist and was sent for x rays. I personally have nothing against lawyers, almost became one, and know people who have.

in NYC we would have had a lot more snow days than the 0 we got during the 80s lol if these standards were applied back then.

 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd love to see it happen, since March 1993, our highest March snowfall has been 8-9"

March 2009 could have done it too had it been moving a tad slower, you cant get any earlier in March than the 1st lol and all the major cities got 8"+  Our Howard Beach spotter measured 10.5" in that one.

 

March 2015 was close to 10 in some areas, Cold too.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

March 2015 was close to 10 in some areas, Cold too.

That was actually my favorite March, the Arctic air held over from February and we had close to 20" total that month.  Missed our first single digit March low in a long time too (it happened on Feb 28th).  We might get that this week!

 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd love to see it happen, since March 1993, our highest March snowfall has been 8-9"

March 2009 could have done it too had it been moving a tad slower, you cant get any earlier in March than the 1st lol and all the major cities got 8"+  Our Howard Beach spotter measured 10.5" in that one.

 

Wow must be a sharp cutoff, didn't some places in LI get like 19 inches last year in one of the March storms

[LibertyBell]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Wow must be a sharp cutoff, didn't some places in LI get like 19 inches last year in one of the March storms

Yep, two of them actually.  You're screwed in March in urban areas if you dont get intense snowfall rates.

 

[RU848789]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also very normal for March.  I've seen more storms like this in March than I have in any other month.  In early season (November) snowstorms, JFK does better than LGA because a NE wind keeps LGA milder.  We saw that in November 2012 especially.  But neither location did extremely well, the really big snowfall totals were off to our NE- Boston to Providence got the real deal and finally got their storm.  I cataloged the whole storm, we had 7 hours of snow and 6 hours of a mix or rain.  There was only a little bit of sleet.

4 pm to 6 pm rain/snow mix

6 pm to 11 pm snow

11 pm - 11:30 rain/snow mix

11:30 - 12 midnight back to all snow

12 midnight - 12:30 am back to a rain/snow mix

12:30 am - 1 am back to all snow

1 am - 4 am back to a rain/snow mix with some intermittent sleet for a brief time

4 am - 5 am back to all snow as the storm concluded

The temperature remained around 33 for the entire storm, dipping to 32 and for a few hours during the heavier bursts of snow.

 

Doesn't make sense to me - I would think the much warmer ocean, relatively speaking, in Nov would impact early season snowfalls near the water much more than it would in Match, when the ocean is at its coldest.  

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yep, two of them actually.  You're screwed in March in urban areas if you dont get intense snowfall rates.

 

Definitely, midtown and the south shore are not good places to be for a March snowfall barring the perfect circumstances. The further you get from these two locations the better the odds of getting significant March snow

[Ericjcrash]

RPM absolutely nailed this system. Anyway in Manhattan you wouldn't even know it snowed lol. 

[weatherpruf]

40 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Sounds about right.  We got 6.0" in Metuchen, which is only a few miles S or SW of you guys.  The "miracle" last night was how we barely mixed at all with sleet, yet areas only 10 or so miles S did and areas well to our NE, like LI and the southern NYC boroughs did, extensively.  That line kept progressing towards us, mixed briefly a couple of times, but then would collapse back down south of the Raritan.  Somewhat simillar to Saturday morning, when the sleet line parked right along or just south of the Raritan and we got 4.5" while folks in NB/EB got 1-2" of mostly sleet.  Up to 24" for this winter.  

Yeah for once we lucked out. Didn't know NB and EB didn't get the snow Sat. That was real close, but last year they had 10-12 when we had about 4 here. Would love to see a big storm plaster everyone again.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Doesn't make sense to me - I would think the much warmer ocean, relatively speaking, in Nov would impact early season snowfalls near the water much more than it would in Match, when the ocean is at its coldest.  

Well the airmass in place was colder in November 2012.  The ocean here is to the south so a NE wind doesn't impact it, but it impacts LGA because LGA has the Sound to its north and northeast.  If you compare JFK vs LGA snowfall totals in November 2012, you'll see a big disparity.  Similar thing happened in October 2011.

 

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

in NYC we would have had a lot more snow days than the 0 we got during the 80s lol if these standards were applied back then.

 

Yeah they never really called school then, but in truth they looked like idiots some of the time. But most of the storms were small anyway, and teachers could take off without the repercussions they get now. It's a changed world, but again, this largely has to do with lawsuits. Remember auto shops, behind the wheel and Home Ec? Yeah, kids with hot stoves, uh uh. And despite the kids have higher IQ's then ever ( its' true ) they are much less inclined to listen. When i told one group i had to move from one building to another not to walk on the ice, they promptly did so and fell. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah they never really called school then, but in truth they looked like idiots some of the time. But most of the storms were small anyway, and teachers could take off without the repercussions they get now. It's a changed world, but again, this largely has to do with lawsuits. Remember auto shops, behind the wheel and Home Ec? Yeah, kids with hot stoves, uh uh. And despite the kids have higher IQ's then ever ( its' true ) they are much less inclined to listen. When i told one group i had to move from one building to another not to walk on the ice, they promptly did so and fell. 

some of the limited attention spans are because they're glued to cellphones most of the day and night, and that negatively impacts how long they can concentrate on one thing.  They're doing studies on the impacts of "screens" on children and the early results dont look so good.

 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

RPM absolutely nailed this system. Anyway in Manhattan you wouldn't even know it snowed lol. 

Rgem was absymal

[purduewx80]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem was absymal

you can't just look at its snow maps and say it was abysmal. no model is going to capture the nuances of marginal setups in an urban heat island perfectly. it was an almost entirely snow event here in bed-stuy, save a few minutes of pellets here and there, which i doubt took off more than an inch. i think one lesson from this storm is to not expect urban areas to accumulate in marginal setups during march unless +SN is falling. if this storm had occurred during the day, it would've been no more than a 1-2" storm aside from some shady grassy areas.

[purduewx80]

45 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

5” total here in bed stuy. @purduewx80 was you close to that?

i'm off this week and slept in, so i'm not sure.  seems about right, was between 3-4 when i went to bed last night. pellets did not last more than a few min at a time.