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OBS thread 2P Mar 3-10A Mar 4 (snow, possible sleet s fringe)


wdrag
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1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Meant FAVORABLE, instead of variable. Bottom line, column appears a bit too warm along I95 for reaching potential of the 18z NAM (unless you use 7 to 1 or 8 to 1 ratio.  We even up here in Wantage lost the first 70 minutes of snow accum due to daylight and coming off a max T of 39.  When the temp dropped below 34 with the 3/4s-, then accum began during the late day.  Would have started sooner at night even at 34.  However, thats past.  I am concerned about power outages ne NJ eastward across S CT, or wherever acscums surpass 6".  Always learning from these events. 

Not sure about where you are but we really haven't seen big rates up here in the city area yet, so there really hasn't been much 'waste' here. I'm not going to give up on 6+ until midnight, when heavy rates should be in full throttle. 

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SIAP, as it's hard to keep up - good news for the NYC folks...just the new part below.  

 

National Weather Service New York NY
757 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --

Made slight adjustments to the forecast this eve, mainly based on the latest HRRR, which has been handling the snow/rain transition area very well across southern NJ last few hours. Based on this, mixed p-type should remain confined to southern portions of Nassau county and NYC`s south boroughs, Suffolk County and extreme SE CT. This has impacted snow totals slightly with up to an inch more accumulation, mainly across SE CT. Otherwise, Winter Storm Warning remains in effect with a widespread 5 to 9 inch snowfall expected for the entire region, highest amounts over the western half of the forecast area between now and shortly after midnight, and the eastern half of the area during the second half of the night. Used raw 2 meter NAM temperatures with a slight decrease during times of heavier snow tonight. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Not sure about where you are but we really haven't seen big rates up here in the city area yet, so there really hasn't been much 'waste' here. I'm not going to give up on 6+ until midnight, when heavy rates should be in full throttle. 

Yea it'll be a close call, the real intense stuff probably comes in like 10 pm to 2 am for the city/LI but the south shore/eastern LI/and possibly southern parts of the city it may not be all snow during those hours. For areas that stay all snow should still be 6+

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Meant FAVORABLE, instead of variable. Bottom line, column appears a bit too warm along I95 for reaching potential of the 18z NAM (unless you use 7 to 1 or 8 to 1 ratio.  We even up here in Wantage lost the first 70 minutes of snow accum due to daylight and coming off a max T of 39.  When the temp dropped below 34 with the 3/4s-, then accum began during the late day.  Would have started sooner at night even at 34.  However, thats past.  I am concerned about power outages ne NJ eastward across S CT, or wherever acscums surpass 6".  Always learning from these events. 

Always learning... That's the key. I've been here in this house for nearly 23 years now and pretty much every weather event holds something new for me. 2018 was a string of new experiences.

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As of 7 pm, measured 1" of new snow after getting home from dinner at Penang with my son (best roti canai in the area; rest of the food is decent, but worth going for the roti). 33F and snowing moderately. Maybe 1/2" of snow on paved surfaces and getting very slick out there.

As of 8 pm, we have 1.75" of new snow on the ground (3/4" the last hour) and it's coming down moderately; temp has dropped to 32F. I think 6" is a lock here and 8" is possible, given the 7 pm (0Z) HRRR that just came out showing 6"+ more snow to come for much of CNJ (and having 1.75" OTG). 
 

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