Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Decided to just go ahead and make this thread since there was some confusion on where to discuss the event for tonight and early tomorrow morning. Latest Hrrr and mesos have trended even colder yet again. Here is the Hrrr for this event which does not include current snowfall. It is all snow here now. Looks like 3-4" in my area of Bucks Co per this model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I had a feeling this one would sneak up even on SE PA. even the warmer models are only showing rain at 33-34. with the snowpack this morning, things could easily be a few degrees colder. good to see the mesos picking up on this. I'm taking them one at a time, but how sweet would it be to wind up with snow from all 3 events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Battle of the mesos for tonight. Hrrr is colder where it matters as is the 12k NAM. However the 3k NAM warms 850s quite a bit more and farther NW than 6z even with a better slp track. The 3k actually was colder thru about 11pm at 850mb vs the 6z run but then goes bonkers warming that layer subsequently. One would think the 3k should be handling thermals better so for now I am going to give it some credence yet raise an eyebrow to the colder solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: we just got NAM'd for tonight into tomorrow Why doesn't the surface map reflect that? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, JMcCaughey42 said: Why doesn't the surface map reflect that? Am I missing something? imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, The Iceman said: imo the rates shown dynamically cool the surface so even though it shows rain on the map, it's actually heavy wet snow or sleet. Got it, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I think the I-95 area will battle sleet and rain for the most part, although it's close. There's clearly a warm layer up top. For those 30 miles or so NW of Philly, it's going to likely be a wet isothermal bomb. However, if the I-95 area can cool the column enough, they could easily see a wet paste job. Temps are very marginal and it'll come down to snow rates and dynamic cooling aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12k NAM Kuchera, which I think is more reliable in this case with the warmth aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 HRRR has been cooling slightly each run. 13z is basically all snow for anyone north of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Newman said: I think the I-95 area will battle sleet and rain for the most part, although it's close. There's clearly a warm layer up top. For those 30 miles or so NW of Philly, it's going to likely be a wet isothermal bomb. However, if the I-95 area can cool the column enough, they could easily see a wet paste job. Temps are very marginal and it'll come down to snow rates and dynamic cooling aloft. Should be a batch of heavy stuff sliding SW to NE in Southeast PA shortly after 11pm-ish tonight. That will be what we should be watching to hopefully cool the column as you alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 HRRR continuing to show 95 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hrrr coming in colder yet again so the trend for tonight continues. Good hit i95 corridor on N and W. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hrrr coming in colder yet again so the trend for tonight continues. Good hit i95 corridor on N and W. did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hrrrr has the snow/rain line 2-3 miles to my NW no joke what a great winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 We want tomorrows event as strong as possible to drive the baraclonic zone south Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 the trend is your friend for tonight my friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: the trend is your friend for tonight my friends This doesnt look great to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Stormman96 said: This doesnt look great to me I meant the trend with models, not someone's forecast that will be catching up in this instance (at least thats my thoughts) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 34 minutes ago, The Iceman said: did you see the wrf meso's? all have 95 frozen throughout. war of the globals vs meso's. I think this has good bust potential especially if mt holly sides with the globals. I recall a March 13 storm (no not 1993 lol) I think in 2017 where we had a similar situation and the 12k NAM was the only one that had sleet and mixing very far NW. Majority shrugged it off as being out to lunch. Guess which verified? Yep the 12k. Other mesos had a monster snow hit but the sleet line punched W all the way to near Harrisburg iirc. Not calling for a repeat just saying the mesos arent always right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, hazwoper said: the trend is your friend for tonight my friends Time for a trip to BK for a Whopper. You're on board....generally a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Dr No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 WWA across SE PA for 2-4". 18z NAM agrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 HRRR agrees with the WWA issued as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I think it’s going to be very close here in Exton but starting to feel good about 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 turned out to be kind of a dud here. Mostly sleet, and it never really got below freezing at the surface. Saw very little in the way of actual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Mainly a sleet storm but switched to heavy wet snow w/big flakes within the past hour. Unfortunately it's almost over...may eek out an inch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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