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OBS thread 10P Mar 1-10A Mar 2, 2019


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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

snowing here on the south shore- sort of.  It's like a white rain with snow flakes mixed in but looking more snowy by the minute, looks like it's transitioning to all snow

It's going to settle south to a point, hopefully it's just south of the beach. Good sign that the short term models seem to be right in making the column cold enough to keep the period of sleet brief. 

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29 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

About 50-50 snow/sleet now.  Hoping we get mostly snow, but I'll take sleet over rain any day.  

All snow as of about 1:40 am here in Metuchen (Edison) - coming down moderately - looks like some heavy stuff is incoming - hoping it stays as snow and doesn't transition back to sleet - anyone know if that approaching line (from the south) of 35-40 dBZ stuff is snow or sleet?  Guess I'll find out in about 10 minutes.  We had 1/4" of sleet (at 3-4:1 sleet to snow, that's about 0.075-0.10" LE) and have about 1/4" of snow on top of that already.  Should pile up quickly if it stays all snow.  32F still.  Beautiful out there.  

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

All snow as of about 1:40 am here in Metuchen (Edison) - coming down moderately - looks like some heavy stuff is incoming - hoping it stays as snow and doesn't transition back to sleet - anyone know if that approaching line (from the south) of 35-40 dBZ stuff is snow or sleet?  Guess I'll find out in about 10 minutes.  We had 1/4" of sleet (at 3-4:1 sleet to snow, that's about 0.075-0.10" LE) and have about 1/4" of snow on top of that already.  Should pile up quickly if it stays all snow.  32F still.  Beautiful out there.  

Sleet line per dual pol looks to have settled just south of Staten Island, a line from Sandy Hook to East Brunswick and west from there. 

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12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet line per dual pol looks to have settled just south of Staten Island, a line from Sandy Hook to East Brunswick and west from there. 

it's like 70% snow 30% rain here, looks mostly snow but not sticking to anything even though it's falling pretty hard.

based on the radar it looks like the snow line has gotten all the way down to Toms River (where the precip is the heaviest?) but as you go east on the Island it comes up north, to the point that it's raining on the north shore from about Wading River on east.  There's a second blob of rain around Port Jefferson surrounded by snow on all sides.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's like 70% snow 30% rain here, looks mostly snow but not sticking to anything even though it's falling pretty hard.

based on the radar it looks like the snow line has gotten all the way down to Toms River (where the precip is the heaviest?) but as you go east on the Island it comes up north, to the point that it's raining on the north shore from about Wading River on east.  There's a second blob of rain around Port Jefferson surrounded by snow on all sides.

 

Residual warm mid level air that should get mixed out as heavier precip comes in. The very south shore was always a worry for hanging onto warm air at the surface or mid levels longer. As the low gets going offshore, that should be gone as well but it's always a question how long it lingers. 

Toms River is rain, where the yellow, green line on dual pol is where it's sleet. Below that is rain, and it's the same color as north of the line. On Long Island on Upton radar you can also start to see it settle south on the north shore now. Most of Nassau and my area in Suffolk is still sleet by that radar. 

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24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

All snow as of about 1:40 am here in Metuchen (Edison) - coming down moderately - looks like some heavy stuff is incoming - hoping it stays as snow and doesn't transition back to sleet - anyone know if that approaching line (from the south) of 35-40 dBZ stuff is snow or sleet?  Guess I'll find out in about 10 minutes.  We had 1/4" of sleet (at 3-4:1 sleet to snow, that's about 0.075-0.10" LE) and have about 1/4" of snow on top of that already.  Should pile up quickly if it stays all snow.  32F still.  Beautiful out there.  

Legitimate heavy snow now under 35-40 dBZ echoes with 1/4 mile visibility and >1" per hour rates over the last 15 minutes.  Went from 1/2" total to 1" total in the last 20 minutes or so.  If this stays snow, looking at the radar, we'll easily make 3".  As I said earlier today, they really ought to split Middlesex into 2 zones with the northern zone from about North Brunswick to Perth Amboy - that section could've been under an advisory too and it fits nicely between SI and Somerset County.  Still 32F

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sleet here too with a mangled flake or two. We should be snowing soon, sleet line is sinking south from the sound and also coming east from the city. 

Heavy snow now. Quick flip. Line is along LIE

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Residual warm mid level air that should get mixed out as heavier precip comes in. The very south shore was always a worry for hanging onto warm air at the surface or mid levels longer. As the low gets going offshore, that should be gone as well but it's always a question how long it lingers. 

Toms River is rain, where the yellow, green line on dual pol is where it's sleet. Below that is rain, and it's the same color as north of the line. On Long Island on Upton radar you can also start to see it settle south on the north shore now. Most of Nassau and my area in Suffolk is still sleet by that radar. 

it looks like 80-90% snow here now, starting to stick to car tops, driveways, grass, etc.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup. Cool tracking it, and how accurate it is (it really is accurate). Looks like it's in Melville, Deer Park area now. Inching its way south in Nassau down to around Valley Stream. 

what do you use for radar?  wunderground doesn't seem to be that precise.

 

JFK is reporting snow so it looks like SW Nassau flipped over around the same time.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup. Cool tracking it, and how accurate it is (it really is accurate). Looks like it's in Melville, Deer Park area now. Inching its way south in Nassau down to around Valley Stream. 

Welcome to the north shore. Early flip is nice 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but to be fair the ones that flip over aren't the really historic ones anyway.  Nothing like Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2 or Jan 2016.  Those are worth about a thousand of the changeover ones.

 

Jan 2016 which I missed in Texas. :axe: (but yeah that really sucked)

Long Beach definitely cashes in at times. The late March storm last winter was awesome when it went to town that night. A foot of paste on everything, and the boardwalk adds to all of it. 1/27/11 was insane for the 4 hours it dumped on us that night. Boxing Day 2010 was probably my favorite blizzard scene in LB. Jan 1996 is still my #1 snow event, but from what I heard Jan 2016 likely surpassed it. Southern Nassau/Queens was really the bullseye that time. 

 

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