wdrag Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 One storm at a time. Should be fun overnight and wind down Saturday morning. Thank you for participating-contributing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Agree with one storm at a time at this point, what a tricky forecast all around with this one, marginal temps across all levels and possibly strong dynamics at play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Newer NAM looks better for NYC folks. Snow maps don’t say so but a lot of the precip on 6z was sleet/rain. Looks more snowy on this run. edit: just realized this is an obs thread my bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Lift in the DGZ looks excellent for the region, I'd be inclined to take overs on snowfall forecasts when taking a look at the soundings. This can be an surprise 3-6" for many in CT, 2-5" city/LI. Not as bullish central/south Jersey. I see the GFS BL issue, I'm just not sure I'd take that over the DGZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Upton going 3-5" yet temps remaining in the mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Upton going 3-5" yet temps remaining in the mid 30s Please, will you post Upton. Have a hardworking daughter in NYC and curious about specifics. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said: Please, will you post Upton. Have a hardworking daughter in NYC and curious about specifics. Thank you. Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sure Thank you. I do indeed visit americanwx.com and check in on NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 temp has been dropping last several hours down to 32 currently in white plains. hoping for a solid 3–4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 29.5/24 Expecting around 4" tonight. 3" will get me to 30" for this pathetic year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: 29.5/24 Expecting around 4" tonight. 3" will get me to 30" for this pathetic year. More than double what I have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: More than double what I have Where are you Stormlover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Where are you Stormlover? Union county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 53 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: 29.5/24 Expecting around 4" tonight. 3" will get me to 30" for this pathetic year. 47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: More than double what I have I'm at 14" so yeah, double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Hrrr keeps increasing totals. 3-6 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Upton now has 4-6 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Union county That's understandable, and normal. There is a big difference from Union Co. to Sussex Co.. Especially when you get by me with the elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro ticked colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 00Z Upton RAOB should give us a hint how big the sleet threat is. I suspect that south Brooklyn Queens and Nassau will be dealing with sleet for a good portion of this event and that LGA back through NYC and EWR could be mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It's looking like one of those events where there could be a big difference between north and south shore-cold air looks marginal in general but most models are just cold enough north of the LIE to have a good chunk of it be wet snow. South of there could fight back and forth or have problems accumulating. I'm becoming more optimistic that my area sees at least 2-3". If I was in Long Beach still I'd be thinking a lot of it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's looking like one of those events where there could be a big difference between north and south shore-cold air looks marginal in general but most models are just cold enough north of the LIE to have a good chunk of it be wet snow. South of there could fight back and forth or have problems accumulating. I'm becoming more optimistic that my area sees at least 2-3". If I was in Long Beach still I'd be thinking a lot of it's rain. Think something like December 1995 or January 2004. Both events there was prolonged sleet on the south shore that cut amounts fairly significantly in some areas while the north shore was all snow. I’m not so sure about rain unless we are talking about the south fork of east Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Think something like December 1995 or January 2004. Both events there was prolonged sleet on the south shore that cut amounts fairly significantly in some areas while the north shore was all snow. I’m not so sure about rain unless we are talking about the south fork of east Suffolk Yeah, also a possibility. Surface temps on the south shore may be just over freezing to start the event and result in it being rain, but it gets colder as the storm goes on. I remember Jan 2004 being a lot of sleet for hours, and 2/8/13 also killing the extreme south shore with sleet whiile it snowed for hours on the north shore. It's what stopped everyone on LI from reaching 18-20"+. Those totals were on the north shore where it was almost all snow and further east where the death band set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Still think the same. 2-5" city and north shore LI, 3-6" CT thru northeast Jersey and southernmost Hudson Valley. Sleet will be cutting totals south shore. Robust DGZ and lack of wind should help ratios in this one for those north of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nam looks about the same for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Starting to get get some very light snow, just flurries at this point. Tiny flakes. 28.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam looks about the same for tonight The Nam got a little warmer. Dynamics seem slower to get going and a lot of what falls around the city and coast seems to be sleet or sleet/rain mix because the column doesn't cool enough. To me it's nowcasting and let's see what happens time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The Nam got a little warmer. Dynamics seem slower to get going and a lot of what falls around the city and coast seems to be sleet or sleet/rain mix because the column doesn't cool enough. To me it's nowcasting and let's see what happens time. Yea this may happen if the precip is weaker and dynamics weaker, still looks like mostly snow for the city and NW but could easily deal with a warm tounge with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea this may happen if the precip is weaker and dynamics weaker, still looks like mostly snow for the city and NW but could easily deal with a warm tounge with this HRRR still looks cooler and switches many over to snow for a while, but it does have a warm nose come in and there's a period of sleet. Dynamics and lift will likely determine how it goes-if it never really gets going, a lot of it will probably be sleet or even sleet/rain because the warm mid levels win out, if heavy rates do happen the warm air gets overcome and many flip over to snow and get a few/several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Light flurry activity has stopped. 28.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 RAP if anything looks cooler than the HRRR. Unfortunately it seems to shift things almost due east once snow gets into CT and Boston area gets shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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