LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12z Euro more wintry than 0z for tonight for NW VA/MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 latest 850 and 925mb temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, Amped said: NAM was the only model that had snow for me last night. Now just about every model has a mix or snow for Frederick county. NAM has been on it for the coastal. It's not an awful model if used knowing it's biases. Like deviding by 4 with its snow output...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeYourScreenname Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 HRRR continues to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 updated 850's. seems the bleed north has stopped for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeYourScreenname Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Looks like Euro has 2 to 4 across the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, Buildthewall said: 17z @leesburg 04 @Ji we take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I have a good feeling about this one. I havent broken freezing today and am still at 31 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, Buildthewall said: 17z A Parr’s Ridge Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, jnis said: A Parr’s Ridge Special Well sort of, the axis is a little bit askew. It needs to be tilted more from your area to the northeast quadrant of Carroll to be a true Parr's Ridge Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Somebody erase the 4 over my house. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: I'm ironical like that. 1) I'm tiring of all the supercooled rain we've had this winter 2) I need an extended period of sunshine for once 3) Little one isn't letting us sleep If the lady and I could get a solid night's sleep for a few days while also enjoying some relatively warm sunshine during that period, then I'd be 90% less cranky! ahhh, gotcha. well i hope the little one sleeps better and you aren't as cranky! hugs, friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I would think wwa's would be extended to just along 95 in the afternoon update given current temps in the low 30's and upper levels right around freezing as well. 18z hrrr keeps most north of dc frozen for the duration of the heaviest tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Somebody erase the 4 over my house. Lol The 18z did unfortunately. It cut way back. Few hours of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The 18z did unfortunately. It cut way back. Few hours of sleet. That's just because rates weren't as crazy as 17z. If we get heavy precip it'll mix and in places change over to snow tonight north and west of 95. 18z hrrr radar depiction at the start of it's run looks like major weak sauce compared to what is actually occurring at the surface right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: That's just because rates weren't as crazy as 17z. If we get heavy precip it'll mix and in places change over to snow tonight north and west of 95. 18z hrrr radar depiction at the start of it's run looks like major weak sauce compared to what is actually occurring at the surface right now. Yeah I'm sure it will continue to fluctuate run to run. Also, it's pretty much on its own right now in terms of wintry precip around 95 anyway unless we see the next NAM run move toward that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Honestly I'm just in watching the radar nowcasting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, George BM said: Honestly I'm just in watching the radar nowcasting this. probably the best bet. models aren't going to be able to nail down the exact location of the mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah I'm sure it will continue to fluctuate run to run. Also, it's pretty much on its own right now in terms of wintry precip around 95 anyway unless we see the next NAM run move toward that. Yeah, maybe one of the red taggers could chime in here but given the current 925 mb and 850 mb temps and surface temps around 33-34, I'd think areas north west of dc and 95 have a good chance at mixing tonight especially if precip is heavy. Take a degree away from the sun going down and then another with the heavy precip mixing some cold down and it could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Well the 18z NAM snow map on TT FWIW shifted eastward comparing 9 hrs on 18z to 15 hrs on 12z... probably not much but still the movement is evident on the map Yes, i know it includes sleet as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Well the 18z NAM snow map on TT FWIW shifted eastward comparing 9 hrs on 18z to 15 hrs on 12z... probably not much but still the movement is evident on the map Yes, i know it includes sleet as well Yeah, weird how it includes snow totals even east of 95 where it's radar shot shows just rain. Must be a lot of sleet. I'm fine with pingers all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 56 minutes ago, Sparky said: Well sort of, the axis is a little bit askew. It needs to be tilted more from your area to the northeast quadrant of Carroll to be a true Parr's Ridge Special. Yea, I see what you mean.... especially after I put on my glasses lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Sleet much? I'll take a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 23 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Yeah, maybe one of the red taggers could chime in here but given the current 925 mb and 850 mb temps and surface temps around 33-34, I'd think areas north west of dc and 95 have a good chance at mixing tonight especially if precip is heavy. Take a degree away from the sun going down and then another with the heavy precip mixing some cold down and it could get interesting. Can you keep posting these or send a link on where to see them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3k really brings in some heavy precip through the cities. I could see some cat paws or heavy sleet with this sounding if the precip is heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Can you keep posting these or send a link on where to see them? Might not be able to keep up with it throughout the evening but here's the link just in case... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=850mb&underlay=1&source=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Looks very rate dependent for anyone south of the M/D line tonight. Root for some heavy precip and you may get some white meteors. Light stuff will just be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12K is a huge improvement even if most of it is sleet for me. The five inches is fantasy but I'm guessing it'll be more than the snow depth maps, which always seem a bit too light in marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks very rate dependent for anyone south of the M/D line tonight. Root for some heavy precip and you may get some white meteors. Light stuff will just be rain. but you said jackpotville would catch up fast tonight and sun/monday. white rain does me no good, friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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