MN Transplant Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 The weather isn’t going to be fun, but it is an interesting low pressure development and track that’ll drench us tonight and tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: The weather isn’t going to be fun, but it is an interesting low pressure development and track that’ll drench us tonight and tomorrow. I love any kind of storm. I'm always interested to see how things pan out. It's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Just what we need, more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Love a good coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Anyone think the mountain tops around 4K feet in Shenandoah could score a heavy wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, peribonca said: Anyone think the mountain tops around 4K feet in Shenandoah could score a heavy wet snow? I could see the high ground from Jonjon’s place down to Elkins picking up a bit of snow accumulation late tomorrow night into Friday morning. Not sure that rates will be sufficient by then to overcome the marginal surface temps for much more than an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 6 hours ago, Sparky said: Love a good coastal. 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Same here ...rain or snow ...love tracking them and sure beats tracking partly sunny and 65 for days on end . Looks like most guidance paints 2 to as much as 3" up our way tomorrow I agree. Everyone gets caught up in wanting snow with coastal storms but I will take them any way I can get them. At least it is exciting weather. Honestly, sometimes all liquid precipitation coastal storms can be better then all frozen ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Ah yes, the flood watch has made its reappearance Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 853 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-505-506-210900- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.190321T1000Z-190322T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 853 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, and Western Loudoun. * From 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening * A widespread soaking rain of 1 to 2 inches is expected. Isolated amounts of around 3 inches are possible. The steadiest rain is expected Thursday morning through mid Thursday afternoon, with residual runoff possibly persisting into Thursday evening. * These rainfall amounts may cause small streams and creeks to go out of their banks, as well as cause flooding of low-lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 856 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Clouds continue to gradually lower and thicken tonight ahead of low pressure developing over the eastern Carolinas. Intermittent light rain already encroaching on southern Maryland as of early this evening, and rain is expected to expand quickly northward while increasing in intensity after midnight (mainly east of Interstate 81). Some moderately heavy rain is likely by daybreak between the Blue Ridge and Interstate 95. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... There is a decent chance this system will be an "overperformer" when it comes to precipitation amounts. Strong height falls with an approaching negatively-tilled mid/upper trough, attendant mid and upper jet/PVA, and strong low-level moisture flux all point to an area of moderately heavy rain from Thursday morning the mid Thursday afternoon across northern Virginia and central Maryland (mainly between the Blue Ridge and I-95). In addition, mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km will contribute to embedded convective elements/heavier rainfall rates (possibly 1/2 inch per hour). A few rumbles of thunder are possible as well given all the strong forcing in place, despite low CAPE values (less than 200 J/kg). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 856 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Clouds continue to gradually lower and thicken tonight ahead of low pressure developing over the eastern Carolinas. Intermittent light rain already encroaching on southern Maryland as of early this evening, and rain is expected to expand quickly northward while increasing in intensity after midnight (mainly east of Interstate 81). Some moderately heavy rain is likely by daybreak between the Blue Ridge and Interstate 95. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... There is a decent chance this system will be an "overperformer" when it comes to precipitation amounts. Strong height falls with an approaching negatively-tilled mid/upper trough, attendant mid and upper jet/PVA, and strong low-level moisture flux all point to an area of moderately heavy rain from Thursday morning the mid Thursday afternoon across northern Virginia and central Maryland (mainly between the Blue Ridge and I-95). In addition, mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km will contribute to embedded convective elements/heavier rainfall rates (possibly 1/2 inch per hour). A few rumbles of thunder are possible as well given all the strong forcing in place, despite low CAPE values (less than 200 J/kg). Now if we just pretend that it's snow and the few rumbles of thunder verify...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Both 6Z NAMs say the flood watch should be extended to the west. Bullseye from OKV-HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 This would have been a great snowstorm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 43 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This would have been a great snowstorm True. I saw a flake or two with the light rain about 5 am, but only 0.01 fell here. That isn't gonna do much on accumulations lol. Bit too far west here for precip. Stay dry north and east today and tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 hours ago, WVclimo said: Both 6Z NAMs say the flood watch should be extended to the west. Bullseye from OKV-HGR. Radar agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 .51 so far. Pretty good start. 2 inches here we come. 43 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Last night's models called for 1.5". All pretty much in agreement. Started out with .16 this am. The radar seemed to show horizontal rain blobs coming up this am. Not training stuff, yet. Just now, the yellows seem to dissipate when they get close to the metro area. We'll see how the models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 pretty legit storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Looks like Jan 2016 radar loop. Can even see the dry slot moving up the Ches and the band starting develop just west of the BR. Sure would have been a fun cold storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea.. Pretty wicked coastal . Actually 3k tries to change briefly the Catoctins over to wet snow later tonight lol. For a brief period it actually crashes 850s here with temps around 36-38 . Rogue wet snowflake maybe in the cards H5 actually is even more impressive with the 12z suite so far . 40 degrees with a steady cold rain in the car in Manassas! Searching in vain for a rogue ping of sleet hitting the windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Ripping snow at Wintergreen pee the webcams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 The ridges and mountains are getting hammered. Just broke the 1 inch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Friday afternoon could be a bit fun as the strong vort approaches. Convective showers are likely, and with very steep lapse rates, it looks like a few folks could see some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 21, 2019 Author Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 hours ago, high risk said: Friday afternoon could be a bit fun as the strong vort approaches. Convective showers are likely, and with very steep lapse rates, it looks like a few folks could see some lightning. Also looks graupely with,dare I say, some graupely snow mix in with the most intense showers?...... Or is my weenie mode getting carried away again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Ripping snow at Wintergreen pee the webcams. Damn, that's impressive. https://www.wintergreenresort.com/Mountain-Cam/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Damn, that's impressive. https://www.wintergreenresort.com/Mountain-Cam/ My sister in law is on the way up for a work conference. I checked the camera because I didn't believe her. Skyline drive above 3000 ft may be absolutely rocked and blindsided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just hit 1.5 in of rain down here in my back yard near Waynesboro, at the foot of Afton... temp drop from 40 to 37 with huge snowflakes mixing in with the rain.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 All snow here now at least at the moment..... heavy enough even after 1.5 inches of rain and 37 degrees , its starting to accumulate like slushy ice cream on the cars and on the back deck.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 43 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: My sister in law is on the way up for a work conference. I checked the camera because I didn't believe her. Skyline drive above 3000 ft may be absolutely rocked and blindsided Big Meadows weather cams look pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Yep, pretty awesome!! http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/wintergreen-blue-ridge-express/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I thought as recently as yesterday that accumulating snow was unlikely at high elevations in our region. Busted on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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