Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: My thoughts and some things I debated/considered: - how far back west of Worcester to push 8+ amounts... lots of evidence this is trending more amped NW, + better SLRs there, so this is more NW of the jack zone on Euro/RGEM - is there potential for > 12"... tough given quick hitter, but I would put that in south coast to PVD to NW CT area - other mesoscale features: I posted about CF enhancement earlier but this moves too quickly to really set up and have discernible impact That map actually looks pretty damned good for what I'm thinking right now. Great job! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It was nice having sunny 40* all day and then at 4:00 suddenly shift to a snow-sky. March the way it ought to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: That map actually looks pretty damned good for what I'm thinking right now. I would have just been like, yeah BOX map looks good, but to each his own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: A few surprises are in store for some. Good luck figuring out who scores 10" when they expected 4" He also needs to upgrade from those stupid red arrows. Makes my brain hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: It was nice having sunny 40* all day and then at 4:00 suddenly shift to a snow-sky. March the way it ought to be. That’s the most positive post you’ve ever made 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 GFS with the slight SE tick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: My thoughts and some things I debated/considered: - how far back west of Worcester to push 8+ amounts... lots of evidence this is trending more amped NW, + better SLRs there, so this is more NW of the jack zone on Euro/RGEM - is there potential for > 12"... tough given quick hitter, but I would put that in south coast to PVD to NW CT area - other mesoscale features: I posted about CF enhancement earlier but this moves too quickly to really set up and have discernible impact Best map out there .. but I would shift 8-12” back to HFD to Springfield and add a lolli 14” in that zone . Other than that, nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/snowy-monday-march-4-final-call.html Nice I just posted a map above... I've been favoring the south coast - PVD - NW CT area for best fronto + highest qpf... we'll see. Hopefully we'll be sweating this less than Friday's debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Seems more reasonable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Don’t be surprise if a tad of the QPF is used to wet bulb, esp lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, DFRI said: Seems more reasonable. This was actually their updated one since noon. They had 5-8" prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It looks like all that convection we see now down in GA has disjointed the low, and hopefully won't transfer the main event south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Snow has commenced. 37/26. We doing obs in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Best map out there .. but I would shift 8-12” back to HFD to Springfield and add a lolli 14” in that zone . Other than that, nice job Thanks Yeah, I was stressing about how far west to push the 8-12"... you may be totally right about HFD Springfield, 18z trends support that, I just was not confident that far west and how quickly this moves... even if there is good frontogenesis banding, residency is not long... I mentioned spot > 12"... I think that's most likely south coast to PVD to NW CT area... I'm just not confident it will be widespread enough to put a swath on the map, especially how quickly this thing is moving, but some 18z guidance definitely supports that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Man that 850 fronto really goes insane after midnight. That inflow hits a complete brick wall in SNE. The NAM actually gets some good H7 fronto up here so we’ll see how that goes and if we can get a stray midlevel band up here. There’s some decent banding in NW PA right now. My concern is the convective look near the RA/SN line. That is a fast moving juicy bomb down there and I’m afraid it may rob some of the moisture to the north. Maybe a little screw zone between forcing areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I've been feeling 6" here just over the NH border north of Haverhill. If its less than that...meh. If over that it will be my season record, my little 2 year old toddler's biggest snowpack and snowstorm (and a morning one still snowing) and I will be psyched. Praying to bust over here...come north baby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Do we have an obs thread for this storm yet? Snow just started here....37.2°/29° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, Spanks45 said: Do we have an obs thread for this storm yet? Snow just started here....37.2°/29° Start one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 43 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said: Wiz, that's just about MBY... Yes please. Do you think surface temps will be 32 or is that likely overdone? Given the dew points I would think more upper 20’s or 30. Maybe immediate shoreline is 31 or 32...maybe 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just got to Branford and few flakes in the airborne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, wxsniss said: My thoughts and some things I debated/considered: - how far back west of Worcester to push 8+ amounts... lots of evidence this is trending more amped NW, + better SLRs there, so this is more NW of the jack zone on Euro/RGEM - is there potential for > 12"... tough given quick hitter, but I would put that in south coast to PVD to NW CT area - other mesoscale features: I posted about CF enhancement earlier but this moves too quickly to really set up and have discernible impact You might be the most level headed person in the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 21Z HRRR still looks great so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, Semper911 said: He also needs to upgrade from those stupid red arrows. Makes my brain hurt. Don't look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Man that 850 fronto really goes insane after midnight. That inflow hits a complete brick wall in SNE. The NAM actually gets some good H7 fronto up here so we’ll see how that goes and if we can get a stray midlevel band up here. There’s some decent banding in NW PA right now. My concern is the convective look near the RA/SN line. That is a fast moving juicy bomb down there and I’m afraid it may rob some of the moisture to the north. Maybe a little screw zone between forcing areas? Where do you see a little exhaust potential lets liven this thread up during the dead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 I hope the convective blob in GA either doesn't rob the storm of energy and disjoint the low, or at least moves in to form a singular low pressure center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Ended up going 8-12” for all of CT. I mean why not given the trends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It looks like all that convection we see now down in GA has disjointed the low, and hopefully won't transfer the main event south. Yeah just saw that as well... part of why 18z GFS ticked southeast... but if any guidance would sniff out new runaway convection, I'd expect the 12k/3kNAM/HRRR would, and they've held stable if not ticked more amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don’t be surprise if a tad of the QPF is used to wet bulb, esp lower elevations. We tit for tad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Flurries fluttering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: Start one Just did but forgot to add "obs" to the title...if anyone with that power could add that just in case the title isn't obvious enough...Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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