Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6-10. Too fast of a mover to go overboard. Probably will depend on what kind of rates we can achieve (like Will mentioned earlier). HRRR would suggest 2-3'' per hour rates. That happens for a good 2-3 hours (which it sort of suggests) 8-10' is a solid bet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Go to work Monday CT peeps. No snowday fo you. Thing is done by 5am. Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing... If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening. With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work. Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes? That was like last Wednesday or Thursday I thInk but euro overdoing amplitude in medium range is nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Regarding “12-16”. ALERT!! Ray Stated IF this map verified (from earlier yesterday), with Northern RI getting 16”+, he.... “I will EAT your Accordion and buy you a new one.” FYI to all. Mike Felger 98.5 Ball Gag in Packer shorts style. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing... If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening. With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work. Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot... Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes? Impossible to recall through the layers of serotonin and dopamine, half kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. I've been involved with this end of forecasting for 30+ years and things have certainly changed. But there are a multitude of factors in play now (input from DPW/Police/Politicians/Bus companies/insurance companies/tons of student drivers & PARENTS) that make it an easier and quicker call by superintendents. I do not know of a superintendent that wants to cancel school; but you have no idea about the conversations that go on from all the entities list above. It is almost always a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes? Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z. The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Greg said: You were never getting 12" down there with those temps regardless of the brunt of precipitation. Your BL issues were prevalent. I never thought I'd get 4 inches, let alone 12. I would expect an inch of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Latest HRRR has heavy banding still in CT at 09z FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z. The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct. I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics. It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, FXWX said: Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing... If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening. With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work. Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot... Really no incentive not to call it, a lot of districts in CT including my kids' school have built-in snow days and they sure as heck haven't burned through them this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 18 hours ago, powderfreak said: Well I appreciate you not banning me over the past several seasons as an offender. EPS matches app. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This thing looks pretty sweet on satellite. Looking forward to tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Upton still has watches up for the area but ALB has warnings, think they would have hoisted by now, a couple hours from go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics. It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows. Yeah to me the system looks identical as it did days ago, just coming out of the firehose at a different angle. Though the solutions a few days ago likely had larger max amounts as the Euro was advertising the "snow zone" north of the low as being widespread 1-1.5" QPF. Its good to see so many folks in the coastal regions south of the mountains getting a solid event though after getting shut out in Dec/Jan/Feb. Bookend winter. Nov and Mar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS matches app. Good lord im teetering on the edge of the r/s line. This is my last chance for snow. Good luck weenies! Im moving on to tornadoes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, tavwtby said: Upton still has watches up for the area but ALB has warnings, think they would have hoisted by now, a couple hours from go time They started warning down here at 1pm when we were blue skies and 40. Cirrus just starting to creep in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS matches app. DAMMIT GINXY! That site has a warning about posting those images. Better EPS look than 00z, broader strokes on the 6+ there. A true I-95 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, metagraphica said: They started warning down here at 1pm when we were blue skies and 40. Cirrus just starting to creep in now. my bad, didn't refresh from the morning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Funny how bad the AccuWeather snow prediction is, two events ago they predicted 3-5 when we got a dusting, 4-6 when we got an inch and now they predict 2-4 right near the jack zone of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 54 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: For all the older weenies on here what's the largest snow bust you've ever had? 3/19/56. An inch or 2 forecasted and ended up with 1-2 feet. I was in 3rd grade. Apparently 12/26/47 which dumped 26.4 on KNYC was forecast to be flurries but at 1 year old I don’t remember those details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, metagraphica said: Anyone have an idea why Upton has the Winter Storm Warning in effect already for this area? Still blue sky, full sunshine and 40 degrees here. Radar is still showing precip back in PA. I could see a Watch until 6pm or so and then change to Warning. That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts. Thanks much for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: 3/19/56. An inch or 2 forecasted and ended up with 1-2 feet. I was in 3rd grade. Apparently 12/26/47 which dumped 26.4 on KNYC was forecast to be flurries but at 1 year old I don’t remember those details. Mine is probably 12/23/97....1-3" forecast and we got 18". 12/11-12/92 was really bad too....the big storm part was forecast well but they thought mostly rain...3-6" was forecast and we got almost 3 feet. Lol. The 2/7/03 storm I recall had advisories out for like 3-5/4-6 and a stripe just south of BOS back into RI had 12-18" of fluff. BOS itself was maybe just under a foot. If we were to get a positive bust in this storm, it would likely be of the fluff bomb variety like that '03 storm rather than a sheer QPF bust...someone goes 18 to 1 ratios in a band at 28-30F at 3"/hr or something for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBrosForever Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts. And we just got ours. 4-7" heavy wet stuff to boot, or to plow. or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 18z NAM is going to have a filthy fronto band move through. It's going to rip and rip heavy for a good 3-4 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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