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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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Compared to 6z, 12z Euro brings the 1"+ qpf line north of PYM (vs. limited to outer Cape on 6z)

PYM area - south shore could be one relative jack area (consistent with RGEM) just north of where they flirt with sleet... 8-12" of heavy wet possible there

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2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Compared to 6z, 12z Euro brings the 1"+ qpf line north of PYM (vs. limited to outer Cape on 6z)

PYM area - south shore could be one relative jack area (consistent with RGEM) just north of where they flirt with sleet... 8-12" of heavy wet possible there

Ratios might counter their precip there.  Heavy dense stuff for sure   

Someone further up and in might get more snow from less water

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ratios might counter their precip there.  Heavy dense stuff for sure   

Someone further up and in might get more snow from less water

I think this storm is going to be rain for me. Usually when the models have the rain line in my general area, im on the rain side of it. I think Scooter could Jack on this one!

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bob Kraft's fetish is sleazy massage parlors...Jerry's fetish is RPM runs right before a good snow event. 

Still ramping up...

 

IMG_2585.PNG

This thing's gonna spike a thunderstorm or two...  you have a flat wave with a pig jet max sloped to the 300 mb level where the core axis passes orthogonal overhead, from right exit to left entrance. I mean I've seen stronger maxes at that level but that translation through the axis is spatially perfect if using the GFS ... I can't imagine the other models are hugely different at that level/time and space, either - who knows.  But that is all taking place along/on the NW arc of the surface low between 3 and 9Z ... where there is likely to be a zygote CCB tendency as said low is lifting passed, ....inside of which ...all that is going to have a couple of violent focused updraft slots...  Don't be shocked (pun intended!) if there's a blind CG in sub 1/4 mi fall rates somewhere, and the RPM may be cluing as to where...

Fascinating system -

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6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I think this storm is going to be rain for me. Usually when the models have the rain line in my general area, im on the rain side of it. I think Scooter could Jack on this one!

You are going to get snow for the first several hours regardless of changeover. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

HRRR keeps going wilder each run. Good to see even if the verbatim amounts are overdone. This is gonna be pretty dynamic for a few hours. 

If 18z suite comes in similar to what the trends are with the HRRR a widespread 8-12'' would seem quite reasonable. They're just going nuts with the lift and mesoanalysis seems to sort of support this idea. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Take em up, now.

Not sure if 6-10'' is a more reasonable way to go or something as extreme as 8-12''. I guess in the end there really isn't that much of a different between the two ranges. I would think (and I think Scott mentioned this), but totals should be rather uniform. I guess it's just whether or not that's like 6-8'' or like 10-12'' lol

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ratios might counter their precip there.  Heavy dense stuff for sure   

Someone further up and in might get more snow from less water

Totally agree... I think we see multiple relative jack areas (and by that I mean 8-10 vs. 6-8, and maybe spot 10-12 in the former):

PYM to south shore area simply by QPF dumpage of heavy wet

Another further northwest where best fronto and better SLRs overlap

But by virtue of this moving pretty quickly, it's a relatively uniform thumpage

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure if 6-10'' is a more reasonable way to go or something as extreme as 8-12''. I guess in the end there really isn't that much of a different between the two ranges. I would think (and I think Scott mentioned this), but totals should be rather uniform. I guess it's just whether or not that's like 6-8'' or like 10-12'' lol

6-10. Too fast of a mover to go overboard.

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