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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If I had to pick a sweet spot, it's from about Ray to ORH to TOL and sw into interior CT and then to about near BOS..esp maybe just inland. That's my guess. I'll do well here, but I think it should be fairly wet here....though 950 is darn cold.

Thoughts on amounts? Is 12” too high as an outside shot?

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think your 6-10 is good. Maybe someone gets a 12 spot..but I don't think it will be a common upper end number.

Agreed. Speed is limiting factor IMHO. It's gonna absolutely rip for a while but it's a fast storm. That's gonna limit the double digit amounts to probably a few lucky spots that maximize their residence time in the heaviest bands. 

I think lots of 8s and 9s will be common. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. Speed is limiting factor IMHO. It's gonna absolutely rip for a while but it's a fast storm. That's gonna limit the double digit amounts to probably a few lucky spots that maximize their residence time in the heaviest bands. 

I think lots of 8s and 9s will be common. 

That's how I feel too. 

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I was thinking sinking air nw of that heavier band near the coast ....

The meat and potatoes fronto is lining up from NE MA down to C CT. But yeah...boring run of the mill north of the best banding. We’ll squeeze out 3-6” and call it a day.

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is def more amped too...seems like all the guidance sans NAM at 00z is more amped.

I'm several pages back but just noticing the 06z NAM and GFS both came back more robust ... Looks like Logan nears .9" melted in this NAM run, and the GFS had repositioning it's Va. Capes position some 100 mile N near off the lower Jersey shores...centered on 06z Monday morning.  Which translates to almost a category increase in the QPF layout for areas on the NW arc.  Which ...yeah I know how y'all feel about QPF art work and why..just sayn'... 

One thing that's stood out to me about the NAM's solution going back many cycles actually ... is that it almost looks like it is focusing all of the event on the east and N arcs of the cyclone ...and almost none wraps back on the West side.   I can come up with an argument to satisfy that synoptic evolution related to the anomalous speed in the flow tilting the whole structure of the thing and/or shearing stress (some)... But, then I look at the GFS run and how it depicts the termination timing over interior Mass quite delayed comparatively.   That looks more theoretically likeable...  Not sure... Either seems plausible to me.  It matters for whether I trek my way into the office or work from home tomorrow - haha.   But that NAM consistency of scouring out all activity on the western (pretty much) half of it's cyclonic envelope is interesting.

 

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