WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just a little different, Lol...he’s lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 GFS may be finally getting a clue this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: GFS may be finally getting a clue this run. It will figure it out in about 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 27 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I just don't usually hear them worded that way Because h5 isn’t just that. It’s 500mb which gives you a broader picture of ridges and troughs as well as blocking. Upper dynamics include 900 mb, 850, 700 which is respectively 2;000 ft, 5,000, and 10,000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 BOX pnc dropped my hood to 5-9 Sunday night. Seems more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: BUFKIT omega/soundings are only as good as the model you're using. Yup! Usually when I bust or miss I will go back and look everything over and ask myself this question, “if I had to forecast this all over again would I make the same forecast?” the answer here was no. I realized what I overlooked and the significance of what I overlooked. Looking at tomorrow I see a lot of those same flags. I dont give a crap about QPF at all...when you look at all the data you can pretty much get a good idea of what QPF you’re looking at. There is a pretty damn solid likelihood tomorrow that the heaviest QPF is south of this area. Eastern MA probably fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Box latest map from 3PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Hopefully this beats the November snow fall here of 7.5". That remains the largest snowfall here of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: BIG jump S on the GFS I don’t see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: Hopefully this beats the November snow fall here of 7.5". That remains the largest snowfall here of the season. Yup. Same here. Ghosts of 2011/2012 are haunting me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Solid gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Heights are higher out ahead of the GFS, Little stronger s/w down south, Trough a hair better, A tic further NW this run, At least it did not go SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I don’t see that. That red L is deceptive. Looks a hair more amped at H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I don’t see that. Yeah, I don't know what he's looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yup! Usually when I bust or miss I will go back and look everything over and ask myself this question, “if I had to forecast this all over again would I make the same forecast?” the answer here was no. I realized what I overlooked and the significance of what I overlooked. Looking at tomorrow I see a lot of those same flags. I dont give a crap about QPF at all...when you look at all the data you can pretty much get a good idea of what QPF you’re looking at. There is a pretty damn solid likelihood tomorrow that the heaviest QPF is south of this area. Eastern MA probably fine. Except absolutely nothing shows that and instead shows it right over CT to Central Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t see that. Turns out I accidentally went back to the 6z suite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: BIG jump S on the GFS Is your monitor or phone upside down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Hopefully this beats the November snow fall here of 7.5". That remains the largest snowfall here of the season. That November storm was a good one here..8.75 inches. I don’t know if this thing tomorrow is gonna beat it??? Gonna have to be a good hit tomorrow night to beat November.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t see that. SFC low is definitely further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Turns out I accidentally went back to the 6z suite I do that on occasion on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I don't know what he's looking at. Splitting hairs but the 18z is a little further south. Bottom is 18z...top is 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That’s all snow off the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except absolutely nothing shows that and instead shows it right over CT to Central Mass I also don’t just forecast based on what a model is currently showing. I try and analyze the look and then use history and past events to dictate whether that will remain consistent I succeeding runs and is an accurate dipiction of the outcome or we will see changes. Forecast hugging over QPF amounts and precip maps is a sign of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: SFC low is definitely further south. I don’t see it. Maybe it’s my old eyes but I don’t see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I also don’t just forecast based on what a model is currently showing. I try and analyze the look and then use history and past events to dictate whether that will remain consistent I succeeding runs and is an accurate dipiction of the outcome or we will see changes. Forecast hugging over QPF amounts and precip maps is a sign of trouble. You should never forecast on qpf. This storm is all fronto and if you looked at 850.. it’s 1-2” hour fronto right over CT up to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I don’t see it. Maybe it’s my old eyes but I don’t see it. I just posted thevtwo maps I was looking at. See for yourself but could be vendor differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Splitting hairs but the 18z is a little further south. Bottom is 18z...top is 12z. That’s where they chose to put the L but seriously look at the isobars.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yup! Usually when I bust or miss I will go back and look everything over and ask myself this question, “if I had to forecast this all over again would I make the same forecast?” the answer here was no. I realized what I overlooked and the significance of what I overlooked. Looking at tomorrow I see a lot of those same flags. I dont give a crap about QPF at all...when you look at all the data you can pretty much get a good idea of what QPF you’re looking at. There is a pretty damn solid likelihood tomorrow that the heaviest QPF is south of this area. Eastern MA probably fine. there's a pretty sizeable difference between the gfs and the nam/ecwmf. If something similar to the latter two verify you're getting a solid amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You should never forecast on qpf. This storm is all fronto and if you looked at 850.. it’s 1-2” hour fronto right over CT up to ORH Well that’s part of my concern here and that’s what bit me in the fanny last night. I purely forecasted based on speculated fronto. Based on the look of everything I am legit worried that’s does not make it into CT (except S CT perhaps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 My vendor doesn’t have it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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