40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not that anything that rolls around in my head matters ... but, it is odd to me that today could be perceived as a "screw job" - and it's not just you. The stench of it is a pall in this social mediasphere's "weather" (heh), if people admit it or not... In the absolute least, the straw-man has a heart beat there. The reason for the 'irk' is because in my humble-o, this was never a big enough deal to be "unscrewed" in the first place. Sorry to say but there is a real, at times laughable, tendency to elide negatives and cons in a given situation in lieu of the entertaining concepts and observations that (admittedly) may reign true. Then what happens? something in between or less...and this pall of screwing hangs over everything. Look, (and you've agreed with this in the past), this is a compressed fast flow, whether any meteorologist wants to admit that or acknowledge why that is a limiting factor. It narrows out impact corridors, and keeps thing moving along, and those are negates on total storm profiles and significance - they just are. Having this thing correct toward less appeal in the now-cast, fits these super-synoptic limitations perfectly really. The "correction vector" is less in this flow... Not intending to preach to the quire or lecture, or come off as holier than thou .. but I don't see a lot of objective realism in the lead up, and not alot of fairness in the post-mortem evals. I don't think Monday is going to register bigger in this pattern, much for the same reasons... But it should be more than this. Point is, if folks were equal on both pros and cons, I don't think this is as screwy as all that... for what little that may be worth. I don't think anyone anyone dismissed the cons, and it was pretty universally considered to be a difficult forecast. I'm not sure what your point is. "Screwed" refers to the fact that it had potential to be better, which was reflected by some of the most skilled guidance at very short lead times. All I mean by screwed. I made a call and it was wrong....simple as that. I understand why some weren't as optimisitc, and they were ultimately right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The big question is, will you get enough sleep tonight to prevent an angry howl if 0z guidance makes a noise tick se? Lol C’mon...I needed to melt. It felt good too. Me and Ray double teaming it last night. Ill keep the howling down tonight, even if it goes to crap. Im calm and relieved now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hence ... narrower impact. Spring is a long , long, long way away . That warm sun tickling the hairs on the tip of your nose. That’s a long long way out there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: People should read this a few times seriously the first and second paragraph Also , Stronger, amped systems this year cut. Theyve favored NNE obviously as they are closer to the cold source and the meager secondary developments have locked in the colder air better there weaker systems slide south that’s 90-95 percent of our systems this year the 1 that hit D.C keeps getting referenced as “see some go north some go south “ that was a outlier I’ve said my peace on this , promise folks Weren't you posting about how you were excited for a pattern for the first time all season not too long ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'm curious to see James forecasted amounts after his great call on this most recent system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I'm curious to see James forecasted amounts after his great call on this most recent system. I’m hoping he got a few inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6-10...6-8 close enough. It’s not going to be compressed imo. This setup sometimes ticks NW last 48hrs. Maybe it won’t, but we’ve seen it before. It's already compressed in my opinion... just not down there lol. I wouldn't worry the late NW ticks...this just feels like it holds or sneaks a little more SE. H5 just doesn't have that amp look...it's just ripping west to east. I-84 jackpot...BDL to BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Spring is a long , long, long way away . That warm sun tickling the hairs on the tip of your nose. That’s a long long way out there 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said: I’m done for the season, signing out Move up the hills! I know, easier said than done but the Pioneer Valley is the snowhole of Western Mass. I spent 4 winters in Amherst with a lot more memories of sucking subsidence then a clean snowstorm. Had friends that lived in Shutesbury and man, what a difference 1k ft. makes. Biggest difference I remember was actually the Dec 08' ice storm. Shutesbury was a disaster area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m hoping he got a few inches NAM rolling, will it trend foe or friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Move up the hills! I know, easier said than done but the Pioneer Valley is the snowhole of Western Mass. I spent 4 winters in Amherst with a lot more memories of sucking subsidence then a clean snowstorm. Had friends that lived in Shutesbury and man, what a difference 1k ft. makes. Biggest difference I remember was actually the Dec 08' ice storm. Shutesbury was a disaster area Are you not familiar with Money Pit Mike? He can tell you tales of woe from thew Western elevations. Seriously though, sure the valley gets less snow than the hills but W MA in general be it 200" or 2000' has had some winter qpf issues over the years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I'm curious to see James forecasted amounts after his great call on this most recent system. My parents had 2 or 3 inches in Orleans this morning!!!! Woootwoooot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Weren't you posting about how you were excited for a pattern for the first time all season not too long ago? Yes I was when I believed there was a PNA ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That was a pretty decent EURO bust in the last 24 hours. I mean it had like 1.25-1.5" QPF from Berks to LCI to LEW at 12z yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That was a pretty decent EURO bust in the last 24 hours. I mean it had like 1.25-1.5" QPF from Berks to LCI to LEW at 12z yesterday. Big time maybe it’s finally settled 36 hours out but i see a bit more SE shifts bc of the H5 look but I like the same corridor you do right now say DXR to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yes I was when I believed there was a PNA ridge Right...shame on me for thinking the euro had a clue on a 24 hour forecast, I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That was a pretty decent EURO bust in the last 24 hours. I mean it had like 1.25-1.5" QPF from Berks to LCI to LEW at 12z yesterday. Awful....and remember how it amped it was all along for this coming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Don’t forget to take off .15 to .25 for today’s stuff Oops you did it again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Are you not familiar with Money Pit Mike? He can tell you tales of woe from thew Western elevations. Seriously though, sure the valley gets less snow than the hills but W MA in general be it 200" or 2000' has had some winter qpf issues over the years. No QPF issues this season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Connecticut Appleman said: I think Ross Poirot would say that there is a "giant sucking' sound" coming from tomorrow night. I wonder what percentage of this board have no idea what you're talking about. 39 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I'm curious to see James forecasted amounts after his great call on this most recent system. You'll need to wait a while. He's still out shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oops you did it again. Fortunately I’ll give you a break because of your age and not being able to comprehend the difference that nick posted a 24 hour precip map and yours was a 72 hour map from 0z Thursday . —Where your only comment was take 2 off for the cape. (Not the entire sne area). When I’m wrong I say I am. If you said take .2 off for the entire region I wouldn’t have said a word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Lol 20 days would be the 15th ,spring starts the 20th early spring being 5 days. He actually has said Met winter is correct and Morch too1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 6-10...6-8 close enough. It’s not going to be compressed imo. This setup sometimes ticks NW last 48hrs. Maybe it won’t, but we’ve seen it before. I mean the spread is actually still to the north of mean low positions, so that’s where our bust potential probably lies. Now that could still mean mix and crappy amounts for SE MA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18z NAM looks great for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nammy looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I wonder what percentage of this board have no idea what you're talking about. Probably not a large number remember Ross's run for president. Anywho - at least it looks like the 18Z Nam has not given up any ground for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Fortunately I’ll give you a break because of your age and not being able to comprehend the difference that nick posted a 24 hour precip map and yours was a 72 hour map from 6z Thursday . —Where your only comment was take 2 off for the cape. (Not the entire sne area). When I’m wrong I say I am. You were wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z NAM looks great for SNE Qpf numbers by any chance?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That 18z shows a really healthy scenario. 850 low pops right over SNE and 700 mb tried to kink at the same time. That would be some real lift in the midnight to 4 am window. I’d sign up for that f-gen look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Effie Nam doesn’t know what blob of convection to place the slp on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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