Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Unreadable. Christ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Unreadable. Christ 6z Extended Reggie looks pretty decent for storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll take the euro. Yes please. Save me the headache of cleanup and just rusty coat hanger this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6z GFS gives me 0.12” QPF from both systems combined. lawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, WeatherX said: 6z Extended Reggie looks pretty decent for storm 2 Yeah.. seems like a 4-8” inch type storm for SNE. You wonder what these whiners were expecting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Models really seem to be wildly bad this season as Ray mentioned, wild dart throwing inside of 24hrs. I can't really remember a winter where ive seen the EC make these big shifts, consistenly, inside of 72 or even 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'd rather have an all snow event where we get 4-8 for most the state than deal with another snow-sleet-ice-rain storm again with the shot at 8-14. I had enough of that crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Models really seem to be wildly bad this season as Ray mentioned, wild dart throwing inside of 24hrs. I can't really remember a winter where ive seen the EC make these big shifts, consistenly, inside of 72 or even 48 hrs. Dylan, I think there's truth to this. However, we're always getting more data. Now that we analyze twice the number of Euro runs, there's a greater perception of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I'd rather have an all snow event where we get 4-8 for most the state than deal with another snow-sleet-ice-rain storm again with the shot at 8-14. I had enough of that crap. Go with the big dog or go to spring at this point. If I can get me somethawed ground so my dog's invisible fence can get installed. That'll make us both happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah.. seems like a 4-8” inch type storm for SNE. You wonder what these whiners were expecting lol Take what's right in front of us and keep the eyes peeled for the next one. No crying in weather lol...they'll learn some day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 There may be another storm in 10 days. Ten days, I tell ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Models really seem to be wildly bad this season as Ray mentioned, wild dart throwing inside of 24hrs. I can't really remember a winter where ive seen the EC make these big shifts, consistenly, inside of 72 or even 48 hrs. As it turns out the Euro from 24-36 hours out didn’t do too bad with tonight’s event down by NYC but it definitely failed for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said: Dylan, I think there's truth to this. However, we're always getting more data. Now that we analyze twice the number of Euro runs, there's a greater perception of change. I can agree with that, but i was just analyzing the 12Z/00Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: There may be another storm in 10 days. Ten days, I tell ya. You mean winter is here? The hell you say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Well that was a pretty entertaining read. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow...just read the last page in here....ya'll are honestly throwing in the towel on this system missing too far south? For about the 100’th time look this year, look at the flow at H5 ...Zoooonalllllllll W-E flow small (tiny) perturbations in the flow Models have struggled with this all year unless we had a amped system cutting anywhere from Madison to Detroit . feels to me like the emperor is wearing no clothes if me and John are the only ones talking about this all year having an influence . Very hard to see a real east coast cyclone with this and if we did see something amp it would most likely cut west the southern (weaker) sliders will not close off in mid levels and models have kept correcting to a more progressive trend on the run up to them . Does that have to happen , no. Is it likely ...yes. John could probably word this better but the primarily zonal fast flow has not changed. Enough .Moisture loaded SWFE w an arctic high and a primary going to DET have been working decently but bet on more bad luck Monday with this low going SE and weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 34 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Models really seem to be wildly bad this season as Ray mentioned, wild dart throwing inside of 24hrs. I can't really remember a winter where ive seen the EC make these big shifts, consistenly, inside of 72 or even 48 hrs. Fast flow creating instability in the output maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6z Euro looks like an improvement from 0z for a majority of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That SE trend on the Euro is over,South coast back to tainting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Now watch it trend so far north that it's congrats SLK and taints to Dendy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I lean that way too, give me all snow or nothing at all, but since padding stats here is an exercise in futility I'm longing for spring in ways I never have. Take the disaster unfolding right in front of us and keep the eyes peeled for the next fail? That's literally been the season since like mid November lol. Yeah, this has been a funny winter. These threads have read better than some of the Mid-Atlantic classics I became accustomed to, with 60% of the board jumping from the moving train so they can go out on their own terms, 30% blindly clinging to hope that we'll reach the promised land even though in their heart of hearts they know only catastrophe lies ahead, and 10% rationalizing their slow descent into detachment (read: profound despair) by saying they're here to "learn". Maybe there's a missing 1% in there that doesn't actually care about winter I won't consider today a fail with almost 4" new snow and another 4-8" forecast, but to each his/her own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I really don't know what some were expecting to see on this, Its a fast flow with no blocking and the track is being dictated by the strength of the s/w coming up from the south, Looks to me the weaker slp's take it further SE and the stronger ones track it to the NW, Which makes total sense, Trough over the central US was digging further south this run, I have been thinking that 6-10" where it stays all snow is a pretty good ceiling on this with lessor amounts in the 4-8" range if the SE tracks verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: For about the 100’th time look this year, look at the flow at H5 ...Zoooonalllllllll W-E flow small (tiny) perturbations in the flow Models have struggled with this all year unless we had a amped system cutting anywhere from Madison to Detroit . feels to me like the emperor is wearing no clothes if me and John are the only ones talking about this all year having an influence . Very hard to see a real east coast cyclone with this and if we did see something amp it would most likely cut west the southern (weaker) sliders will not close off in mid levels and models have kept correcting to a more progressive trend on the run up to them . Does that have to happen , no. Is it likely ...yes. John could probably word this better but the primarily zonal fast flow has not changed. Enough .Moisture loaded SWFE w an arctic high and a primary going to DET have been working decently but bet on more bad luck Monday with this low going SE and weaker I'm not really sure what you are looking at or what point you are trying to make...this isn't a KU. It never has been. But this isn't exactly flat....fast flow? Sure. Zonal? Not so much...it's pretty classic actually for a good quick hitter...vortmax riding up the east side of the longwave trough....if you think it's going to whiff, that's fine. Maybe it trends that way...but I don't see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I really don't know what some were expecting to see on this, Its a fast flow with no blocking and the track is being dictated by the strength of the s/w coming up from the south, Looks to me the weaker slp's take it further SE and the stronger ones track it to the NW That encapsulates the season for 90% of Our systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That flow is far from zonal, That trough was digging further south over the middle of the US this run on the 06z euro which in turn got the slp to come back NW from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That encapsulates the season for 90% of Our systems And it looks to end that way as well, I would not expect much of a change the rest of this winter, It is what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not really sure what you are looking at or what point you are trying to make...this isn't a KU. It never has been. But this isn't exactly flat....fast flow? Sure. Zonal? Not so much...it's pretty classic actually for a good quick hitter...vortmax riding up the east side of the longwave trough....if you think it's going to whiff, that's fine. Maybe it trends that way...but I don't see it right now. If we had more of a ridge near Rockies I’d be bullish . Dryslot said it best . The overall year has been amped cuts and weaker slides under , thats How we go out..for a reason and it ain’t blind continuity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Should be a good 6-10 deal where it’s snow. Agree with dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Ryan’s got 6-12 for much of CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: I'd rather have an all snow event where we get 4-8 for most the state than deal with another snow-sleet-ice-rain storm again with the shot at 8-14. I had enough of that crap. Hearing the EURO is tainting coast again. Maybe north trend started? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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