40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Oh ok. Sounded from the tenor of all the posts that many were just assuming this will miss or he a scraper, etc...when in reality it looks pretty good. Confidence is obviously another thing...though I can't find any guidance that actually looks bad for most of SNE. This is a pretty good looking threat. Probably bed like 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: How do you feel about Mondays system Will?? I mean, everything just trends away to Sh*t within the last 24-36 Hours it seems this winter..save for November 15th. That was a good system here(8.75”). That’s what he’s taking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Monday looks good as we mentioned earlier. 6-10 or more any many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s what he’s taking about. He posted his(beat me to it) as I posted mine.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Monday looks good as we mentioned earlier. 6-10 or more any many areas. IF...if it doesn’t trend any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: IF...if it doesn’t trend any further. It’s two days out.it has a limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s two days out.it has a limit. I agree.... but did you see what guidance was like for Saturday at 36 hours out yesterday??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s two days out.it has a limit. Ya you’re right. It’s juzt that everything just goes to hell the day before, so no confidence in anything at this point. If the SE Trends stop now...we are looking good I agree. Hope so. Just one good one to end it...not too much to ask of winter..right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree.... but did you see what guidace was like for Saturday at 36 hours out yesterday??? Different setup. The past performance also isn't predictive of the future performance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 What’s so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Different setup. The past performance also isn't predictive of the future performance here. I understand that was because of vorticity issues with the SW, but guidance is awful right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Its tough not to feel snake bitten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What’s so different? More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? Ok! Great points. Makes sense. Thank you for taking the time to explain. Always appreciated. Hope the SE trend is over too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? I'm done betting this year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Unreal. I give up. Guidance is utterly hapless...including the euro. Gfs kicked the Euro ass yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6z Nams getting it done. Hope it stays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 WSW just hoisted for all of southern ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Watch up for here.. I'm sure this will go to crap today though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Gfs is flatter yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6Z GFS is ugly!!! I will definitely melt if 12z is the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 GFS/FV3 is like a 1-3/3-6 deal NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Meanwhile the RGEM might have ticked north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Meanwhile the RGEM might have ticked north That model sucks this year lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Meanwhile the RGEM might have ticked north Thank God. Is the JMA following suit??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6Z GFS is ugly!!! I will definitely melt if 12z is the same! Scooter said there’s a limit to how far SE this can go...When will it stop going SE lol??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That model sucks this year lol.. Yeah it really has. The main problem I see is the flow is so fast and compressed you just don’t get a great CCB with the system as it passes most of this forum and certainly my subforum. As a result the best snows will likely be whoever sees that initial area of snow breaking out ahead of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah it really has. The main problem I see is the flow is so fast and compressed you just don’t get a great CCB with the system as it passes most of this forum and certainly my subforum. As a result the best snows will likely be whoever sees that initial area of snow breaking out ahead of the low Yup. Going bye bye just like today’s POS. Man this pattern just won’t quit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: More defined energy, very good baroclinic zone, longwave trough amplifying to name a few. None of these are guarantees that it pans out, but we can't really look at it through the lens of the most recent system. If we did this regularly, we'd always underforecast after a bust....I've actually seen it happen too. Feb 2010 after the epic 2/10/10 bust, tons of mets went really light on a honking interior system with a marginal airmass a couple weeks later. Snake bitten I guess....but there were huge warning flags for a large event. I remember I went like 8-14" for my clients and TV mets were literally like 1-3/2-4" of slop, lol. In the end, 8-14 was actually too conservative. 14-18 would've been a better call. You can imagine how well the TV forecasts did. Well see on this one. It's possible the SE trend keeps going but why would we bet on that? Aw, you left out the WNE special on 2/16/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now