Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There’s definitely weird convective stuff going on that could be good or bad. Nam is a mini cane by 12z It’s only a 988mb low S of ACK. Slight breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It def does get tiresome having models cut back and cut back as we get closer in... I mean, no one is going to die from having snow drop from 10”to 4”, but it is very very frustrating. But they are cutting back while increasing in other areas that would've seen rain. TauntonBlizz is benefiting greatly from your loss . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Queens away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 The only real significant difference in the NAM run besides convective differences is organization. Compared to the 18z suite the system is a liiiitle farther north, deeper, more tightly wound, and has much more vorticity. New one first, old one last If we get some nice tics north over the next few runs with the same organization (unlikely IMO) we could be back in weenie mode.e vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There’s definitely weird convective stuff going on that could be good or bad. Nam is a mini cane by 12z At H5 it looks like an aerosol paint can exploded with all those lobes of vorticity ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 00z HRRRX that goes to 36 hours is in the GFS camp. Very interesting battle grounds for an event that's pretty much done in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This really does have a little resemblance to the mess we had earlier today, particularly in how diffuse and piecemeal the vorticity is, and once again that may be confounding guidance. There's alot of scattered convection on the NAM that could also be robbing some inflow like today's system. One key difference is that the trough is more developed... otherwise this too would be fading east. But I'm leaning southeast in my expectations. Basis for my initial thoughts I posted earlier: 6-10 jack in pike region or slightly southeast. I'm also guarded on how far northwest this impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3km NAM run out of @TauntonBlizzard2013’s basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Here’s the rub folks. We’re looking at a very fast mover. 8 hours of precipitation has a ceiling below a foot typically 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 3km NAM run out of @TauntonBlizzard2013’s basement Tblizz, Scooter and Lavarock were in the same fraternity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Let's all hope for a northwestward trend in the 00z suite of the GFS knowing my predictions and the season the it's gonna have the low off of Florida isn't it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Would just like to beat my 6.5" in the 1/19-21 event. Going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Here’s the rub folks. We’re looking at a very fast mover. 8 hours of precipitation has a ceiling below a foot typically Yep. The will be done quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, tiger_deF said: Let's all hope for a northwestward trend in the 00z suite of the GFS knowing my predictions and the season the it's gonna have the low off of Florida isn't it... Let's all not..but feel free. I'm surprised I'm not at least under a watch, given the hellacious dump before any change to rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Hrrr couldn’t even get it right at 9z today. Screw that model. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It really is a quick mover..by the time it changes over here...theres like 1-2 hours of precip left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Euro mid levels don’t look great....nothing really closes off. We’ll see. Mid levels , they aren’t closing bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Let's all not..but feel free. I'm surprised I'm not at least under a watch, given the hellacious dump before any change to rain here. BOX playing it safe knowing they still have time to make adjustments up or down in watch areas and snow totals.12z models were still unclear on impacts for our area with the BL. I’ll admit that it’s looks better now but we’ll need to see the rest of the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yes, a lot of red flags and I'm leaning conservative on this at the moment... fast mover, disorganized piecemeal vorticity, lots of convection out to sea that could disrupt inflow and/or tug this further east, 850/700 close late or only briefly (at least on most recent NAM)... as I posted above, the main thing this has going for it is that the trough is digging more (vs. today's system), but even that is far from great... things to watch. I'm not at all snake-bitten... these are objective concerns to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 RGEM looks more amped than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: It really is a quick mover..by the time it changes over here...theres like 1-2 hours of precip left Noticed that even down here in Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: Ugh These "upgrades" they give to the models don't do shit or just make the models worse it seems. Happened with the NAM, with the Euro and now with the GFS. The FV3 is so bad, implementation is being pushed back yet again Frustrating. Idk, maybe I'm just snake bitten with this year like Ray said. And I'm not even making forecasts! I mean there is more to forecasting than New England. NWP continues to get better, year over year, even if it doesn't seem that way in your backyard. And I can't believe I'm doing this but, the FV3 is an improvement over the GFS. My guess is that there was too much complaining about clown maps from the field and so implementation got delayed. Which says more about the forecasters than the models in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yes, a lot of red flags and I'm leaning conservative on this at the moment... fast mover, disorganized piecemeal vorticity, lots of convection out to sea that could disrupt inflow and/or tug this further east, 850/700 close late or only briefly (at least on most recent NAM)... as I posted above, the main thing this has going is that the trough is digging more (vs. today's system)... things to watch. I'm not at all snake-bitten... these are objective concerns to keep in mind. Probably the biggest take away from all this, That has me piqued for possibly a better outcome if we get that s/w to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 RGEM is more amped and much more organized, maybe a tiny tick north can't tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM looks more amped than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM looks more amped than 18z. Yup, Scooter meh'd his way to 8"+, I knew he would be chugging growlers before it was all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 00z NAM looks like it may be a hair too high with heights in the base of the shortwave out west, but that could also be a function of being too slow at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably the biggest take away from all this, That has me piqued for possibly a better outcome if we get that s/w to cooperate. Better than Friday for sure... but not the best, and shortwave at the moment looks awfully like today, maybe more robust. I'm shaking my head... our KU should have been Mar 6-7... all these attempts before H5 has properly set up are tripping over themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 You can really see how these high velocity patterns are very sensitive to subtle perturbations in terms of who gets what/where. Personally I expected a narrower impact but I'm just not sure how massive or less that will be. I wouldnt be shocked if somebody has thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The 00z NAM looks like it may be a hair too high with heights in the base of the shortwave out west, but that could also be a function of being too slow at initialization. Check those returns here, Going to end up pulling 1"+ of 25:1 fluff from the convergence from the ULL and the slp out to the east from today's system............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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