Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Monday looks good as we mentioned earlier. 6-10 or more any many areas. Still ... ? Not sure I concur... No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen ... It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin' I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one. I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger. I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still ... ? Not sure I concur... No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen...It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin' I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one. I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger. I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. We'll see Tip typified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Thinking 3 to 6 here for tomorrow night. 4 to 8 eastern areas except along the coast and Cape thinking less there because they will mix with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Still ... ? Not sure I concur... No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen ... It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin' I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one. I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger. I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. We'll see Thank you geezus whats that n sync song Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's just it....we have had screw jobs when it doesn't benefit NNE...like today. It has gone both ways. But regardless, this season was forecast poorly by everyone, except raindancewx, and we would have had a much better outcome with blocking. Agreed on that. Not that anything that rolls around in my head matters ... but, it is odd to me that today could be perceived as a "screw job" - and it's not just you. The stench of it is a pall in this social mediasphere's "weather" (heh), if people admit it or not... In the absolute least, the straw-man has a heart beat there. The reason for the 'irk' is because in my humble-o, this was never a big enough deal to be "unscrewed" in the first place. Sorry to say but there is a real, at times laughable, tendency to elide negatives and cons in a given situation in lieu of the entertaining concepts and observations that (admittedly) may reign true. Then what happens? something in between or less...and this pall of screwing hangs over everything. Look, (and you've agreed with this in the past), this is a compressed fast flow, whether any meteorologist wants to admit that or acknowledge why that is a limiting factor. It narrows out impact corridors, and keeps thing moving along, and those are negates on total storm profiles and significance - they just are. Having this thing correct toward less appeal in the now-cast, fits these super-synoptic limitations perfectly really. The "correction vector" is less in this flow... Not intending to preach to the quire or lecture, or come off as holier than thou .. but I don't see a lot of objective realism in the lead up, and not alot of fairness in the post-mortem evals. I don't think Monday is going to register bigger in this pattern, much for the same reasons... But it should be more than this. Point is, if folks were equal on both pros and cons, I don't think this is as screwy as all that... for what little that may be worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I think Ross Poirot would say that there is a "giant sucking' sound" coming from tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Having this thing correct toward less appeal in the now-cast, fits these super-synoptic limitations perfectly really. The "correction vector" is less in this flow... Not intending to preach to the quire or lecture, or come off as holier than thou .. but I don't see a lot of objective realism in the lead up, and not along of fairness in the post-mortem evals. I don't think Monday is going to register bigger in this pattern, much for the same reasons... But it should be more than this. Point is, if folks were equal on both pros and cons, I don't think this is as screwy as all that... for what little that may be worth. People should read this a few times seriously the first and second paragraph Also , Stronger, amped systems this year cut. Theyve favored NNE obviously as they are closer to the cold source and the meager secondary developments have locked in the colder air better there weaker systems slide south that’s 90-95 percent of our systems this year the 1 that hit D.C keeps getting referenced as “see some go north some go south “ that was a outlier I’ve said my peace on this , promise folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Good news for interior SNE? Maybe more so I95 corridor vcnty TTN-NYC-BOS. Here is the new 12z run view at 06z/4. Somewhat further S. The way I look at this. QPF will probably 10 to 1 or thereabouts I95... roughly. NWS has the details on snow ratio blender. BUT, I accentuate the pmts near or just north of this transitory band 10P-4A...a stripe in there should get more than the 10-1 conversion. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro looks pretty close to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro with another tick se it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro locked and loaded and Walt Drag coming into our thread! We miss you in SNE Walt! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Still left goalpost with gfs on the right. Not a bad look. 6-10 is resonable for the biggest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That’s a great look for SNE. This is locked . 6-10” Lala 12” for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro with another tick se it seems. No it didn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro looks pretty good to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: People should read this a few times seriously the first and second paragraph Also , Stronger, amped systems this year cut. Theyve favored NNE obviously as they are closer to the cold source and the meager secondary developments have locked in the colder air better there weaker systems slide south that’s 90-95 percent of our systems this year the 1 that hit D.C keeps getting referenced as “see some go north some go south “ that was a outlier I’ve said my peace on this , promise folks D.C. was hit more than once actually (they got a decent front ender a couple weeks back)...then another hammered VA in December. It's still wanting it both ways even if you leave out the DC storms..."if it's strong, it cuts, if it's weak, it whiffs"....as if there is no such thing as something in between. Also, there now seems to be some sort of stigma at actually pointing out positive in any of these events...if we want to go all Tip psychoanalysis here...as if people want to shut out any talk of favorability lest they get their hopes up because they cannot deal with disappointment once again. This coming system is a perfect example. Nobody is calling for a KU....yet, we have like 3 or 4 mets this morning talking about how good the midlevels are for SNE and yet we can scarcely get the "six" out of a mention of a possible 6-10" forecast before there's a pig pile of "no this ones gonna suck too or get shredded into an advisory event"....maybe, but there's plenty of reason it won't either. We do get 6-10" storms in fast flow...that was essentially our entire winter's worth of storms in the '07 through '09 period. Admittedlty there's a little more reason to be pessimistic in S NH versus, say, central MA. But I still think both will prob approach or exceed warning snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 This might be an 8-12" in the making for the heart of our viewing area but we'll see, as many have been alluding to, so far with these models and this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: No it didn’t. TT panels ftl. Looks about the same from 0z. I can’t afford off hour runs since I owe Pickels $50. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 That fronto Walt posted is 1-2” per hour rates for a good 4-6 hours at x location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: TT panels ftl. Looks about the same from 0z. I can’t afford off hour runs since I owe Pickels $50. It’s 12z. Not the off hour... weather.us is freebie if not great. Looks ok to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It’s 12z. Not the off hour... weather.us is freebie if not great. Looks ok to me Yea I was comparing todays 12z to yesterdays 12z on TT...idiota....which was se. looking at 12z to 0z, roughly the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Old run vs. new run. It's more amplified and overall a better solution for most. Tracks near Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still left goalpost with gfs on the right. Not a bad look. 6-10 is resonable for the biggest totals. Looks good to me...Lets just keep it there now, after yesterday's storm was sort of pulled out underneath us in the final 24 hrs, I am a bit worried, hopefully this one doesn't follow. With a nice blanket of snow, we might see some pretty cold nights coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 EURO looking tasty, this will be CT’s biggest event of the season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Old run vs. new run. It's more amplified and overall a better solution for most. Tracks near Nantucket. Don’t forget to take off .15 to .25 for today’s stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Don’t forget to take off .15 to .25 for today’s stuff That's a 24 hr map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, NeonPeon said: That's a 24 hr map. I apologize, you are correct . I was wrong . Nicks map was spot on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Don’t forget to take off .15 to .25 for today’s stuff I did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Looks like waa with 3-6 here. Wsw perhaps south of MHt into Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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