allgame830 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 27 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Which model do you "believe" for your one-stop solution? Just curious as here I've been looking at multiple pieces of guidance to suss out the range of possibilities. It’s track is good but the pecip amts are too sparse... this will be a 4-8” with locally up to 10 across the area. Starting mid afternoon and ending around 2-3 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 looks to me the 12z GFS shows a start time evening on Sunday ending midday on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, lee59 said: looks to me the 12z GFS shows a start time evening on Sunday ending midday on Monday. End time will be before then, I'd say it's over by dawn or soon after Monday. It'll be an 8-10 hour event for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Courtesy of the NE forum...12Z UKIE. I think this is NYC's storm...and LHV + Central NJ + LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Hrdps has 6+ for NYC and the surrounding areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hrdps has 6+ for NYC and the surrounding areas. And it looks like most of the snow is going to fall after dark so sun angle will not be a factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: And it looks like most of the snow is going to fall after dark so sun angle will not be a factor. If we get this then probably one more would put us near average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hrdps has 6+ for NYC and the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NWS as of 11 am were buying in and UPPED my #'s ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, most of southern Connecticut and portions of southeast New York. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: The GFS just gets drier with every run... almost a shutout up here now. I'm in Hyde Park and GFS is not our friend up here. NWS Albany has me getting 5-9 but I'm thinking 4-6. What do you think ratios will be up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 hours ago, weatherpruf said: A little too technical for me but always welcome to see you here. I'm in the green near SI; not sure what to expect, was surprised by today's event. If we can get one, we can get two. march 1992 comes to mind. Never a straightforward event, but I think the probs are too far nw and will probably slip closer to I95 in the afternoon update... New accentuated frontal zone aloft lift is near NYC-BOS... so it should be there or just nw of there that a stripe of greater 10-1 snow fall occurs, whatever the eventual qpf. always model fluctuations but as a private sector met noticed...faster and further s trends, which means less qpf-snow, but still this will be nice event, and I think a little larger than the one of this morning. I dont know how many recall... the GFS had this mornings event as RAIN, and big low up in the St Lawrence Valley. EC and other models recognized early on a better chance south. But I hope the EC fans, dont get to enamored...it busted badly days in advance of the Wednesday event down I90 (2-6" stripe BUF to BOS), the one that the GFS had well ahead of the EC, just too far s. Added the 18z NAM banding potential for 06z/4. Consistent and pretty large with its 12z/2 run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC. Right now it's a warm outlier NYC gets 4-8 on this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC. Right now it's a warm outlier NYC gets 4-8 on this run It’s too far west and amped. The Euro has been horrible for this event. IMO It’s going to move SE again tonight. The cave isn’t over. The GFS is winning this battle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It’s too far west and amped. The Euro has been horrible for this event. IMO It’s going to move SE again tonight. The cave isn’t over. The GFS is winning this battle The GFS moved NW at 12z. It's too early to count out a late west trend. On the coast at least I'd be more worried about mixing cutting into totals than it being too suppressed. I don't think you need to worry about suppression until you're NW of I-84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC. Right now it's a warm outlier NYC gets 4-8 on this run BIG time raise back clos"er" to where it was ides cycles... OP 1" qpf stripe nr PHL-ISP and 7+ nw NJ. As snow88 said, warm outlier but banding is a consideration. I'd watch NAM trends through the 12z cycle tomorrow. IF the NAM comes on a little heavier, many on here will like. There is a pretty strong front aloft associated with this event coming thru tomorrow night. Jury out, but worthy of recognizing travel tomorrow evening in NNJ/CT hilltowns could be quite bad IF/when? 1-2"/hr snowfall rates develop for a 2 hr period. Fingers crossed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The Euro would pretty much change NYC over to rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro would pretty much change NYC over to rain It's close on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 We are within 24 or so hours of the first flakes. Seems like we should start focussing more on shorter range models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC. Right now it's a warm outlier NYC gets 4-8 on this run West of S S I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro would pretty much change NYC over to rain Looks like it doesn't change to rain in NYC, but maybe you've looked at thermals. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030212/new-jersey/significant-weather/20190304-0800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Looks like it doesn't change to rain in NYC, but maybe you've looked at thermals. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030212/new-jersey/significant-weather/20190304-0800z.html It changes JFK but not necessarily LGA or NYC....Without hour by hour panels its tough to say what happens but the Euro seems to go snow-rain-snow at JFK which just never happens....in a storm like this its either going to stay all snow or go snow-rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I'm in Hyde Park and GFS is not our friend up here. NWS Albany has me getting 5-9 but I'm thinking 4-6. What do you think ratios will be up here? As long as the synoptics are still being hashed out, I don't see any compelling reason to deviate far from climo ratios. The Euro continues to be the wettest in the interior, but the gradient will be sharp either way. In the end, it wouldn't surprise me if you got 3" while somebody in Pawling called in 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 to 1 ratio would give NYC 6 to 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Expecting a rainer here. Maybe a little burst of wintry precipitation otherwise a dreary day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 TWC forecast for city is rain/mix and less than an inch. Uh ... what model shows this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, RDRY said: TWC forecast for city is rain/mix and less than an inch. Uh ... what model shows this? No model, I think they are banking on a north/stronger trend over next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 WPC model diagnostic discussion regarding this event. Just for an idea of what they're looking at. From 130pm : Preference: General model blend (with less weight toward the 12z ECMWF) Confidence: Average The 12z NAM has shifted to the east with its surface low track (when compared to its previous two model cycles), a result of better agreement concerning the timing of the phasing of the northern and southern stream short wave into a broad cyclonic flow over the northern part of the US. The 12z GFS has remained consistent with its previous two model cycles in keeping the surface low further east. Though it has been trending slowly eastward with its depiction of the surface low track, the 12z ECMWF remains the westernmost member of the guidance envelope (joined with the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean). The general model trend has been to phase the northern and southern stream a bit later, resulting on a more easterly surface low track. Given this trend, a general model blend is preferred, though at this point less weight should be given the 12z ECMWF because of its surface low track (and precipitation swath). Because there is still some variability concerning when the phasing occurs, and considering the sensitivity of the forecast to that variability, confidence remains average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 No WSW in the city, yet a 3-7 inch point and click forecast....Guidance easily warrants a watch. Maybe they're waiting for the 18z suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: No WSW in the city, yet a 3-7 inch point and click forecast....Guidance easily warrants a watch. Maybe they're waiting for the 18z suite... The fact the ECMWF is being somewhat weighed less they might do it...given this event does not start though til evening tomorrow they may just hold off til 4am and go straight to warning or advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: No WSW in the city, yet a 3-7 inch point and click forecast....Guidance easily warrants a watch. Maybe they're waiting for the 18z suite... in there earlier AFD they mentioned they might issue a watch for NYC if the guidance indicates the need - I think at the least they will issue and advisory and then tomorrow morning possibly a watch if guidance indicates the need.... "NEW YORK CITY, LONG ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES WERE LEFT OUT, WITH SNOW TOTALS MARGINAL. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW OCCUR THESE REGIONS MAY ALSO REACH WARNING CRITERIA AND THE WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED LATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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