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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


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6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Well if this storm tomorrow can put down 9.1" here, that will put me at 40" for the season. Current forecasts are 5-9, 6-10". We shall see?

That would be nice... pretty much same for my locale too. Also looks like it’s going to come in earlier probably around mid afternoon.

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Few early thoughts:  I am a NAM 12Km fan...I think better than the 3K though I'll reevaluate demonstrated other superior model opinion inside 60 hours. 

I've added then probabilistic graphic I used early this morning...looks too far nw to me...  and I think, if the next several runs of the NAM concur, there will be a pretty darn good band of 1-2"/hr for 2 hours setting up somewhere near FWN-BOS line 03z-09z time frame. Two graphics attached: mid shift probability 4+, axis looks too far nw to me, but the future modeling may confirm this location or a shift. AND, an advance notice of FGEN banding potential, near 06z/4. If the transitory enewd moving band occurs, then I see a 9" stripe somewhere along or just north of it. 653919799_ScreenShot2019-03-02at8_41_21AM.thumb.png.e24f1b12d86e003237972155325f6de1.png

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 5.58.54 AM.png

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Few early thoughts:  I am a NAM 12Km fan...I think better than the 3K though I'll reevaluate demonstrated other superior model opinion inside 60 hours. 

I've added then probabilistic graphic I used early this morning...looks too far nw to me...  and I think, if the next several runs of the NAM concur, there will be a pretty darn good band of 1-2"/hr for 2 hours setting up somewhere near FWN-BOS line 03z-09z time frame. Two graphics attached: mid shift probability 4+, axis looks too far nw to me, but the future modeling may confirm this location or a shift. AND, an advance notice of FGEN banding potential, near 06z/4. If the transitory enewd moving band occurs, then I see a 9" stripe somewhere along or just north of it. 653919799_ScreenShot2019-03-02at8_41_21AM.thumb.png.e24f1b12d86e003237972155325f6de1.png

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 5.58.54 AM.png

A little too technical for me but always welcome to see you here. I'm in the green near SI; not sure what to expect, was surprised by today's event. If we can get one, we can get two. march 1992 comes to mind.

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'd say it's at least 3-6"/4-8" areawide outside of maybe the twin forks. It really comes down overnight. It won't be a blockbuster but this winter it might as well be. 

As I've said, these were very typical storms of the 70's and 80's. The 18 inches in 83 was a complete shock to people.

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1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

I’m shocked that they didnt issue a watch for nyc, not sure what they are thinking as its borderline for 6. If models move to a rainier or drier solution then just issue the advisory.

Models have been trending drier recently it seems. Also look at the snow depth when available to help temper expectations as well.

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1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

I’m shocked that they didnt issue a watch for nyc, not sure what they are thinking as its borderline for 6. If models move to a rainier or drier solution then just issue the advisory.

My point/click has 3-7", so I'd think they'd issue a watch at least for western Suffolk and west. 

Start time for NYC looks to be about 6-7pm. Worst is 10pm-4am. 

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1 minute ago, romba said:

Models have been trending drier recently it seems. Also look at the snow depth when available to help temper expectations as well.

Certainly wouldn’t make sense to issue the watches for N&W areas then so is it really because they are hedging on a drier solution?

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS actually went west a bit and got stronger with the precip. There's still time for last minute trends with this. I was thinking there might be an overtrend SE last night. I still wouldn't write off some mixing on the immediate coast. 

We mixed very briefly last night, then went over to light flurries before snow. I'm not stricly coastal but as close enough to the east shore of SI and upper raritan that I will usually see some mixing, even in decent events. High was supposed to be 45 tomorrow; are we expecting temps to crash...

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4 minutes ago, justinj said:

As of right now how does the north shore of western Suffolk look for this event? We seem to always jackpot during storms like this for Long Island 

Pretty golden, I'd say if anyone goes over 6" it would be this area. But it wouldn't take too much of a NW trend at the end to have mixing come into play. If it stays like this at 0z tonight I'd say we're in for a decent event at least. 

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So, the Euro caved to the GFS for the storm now racing off into the Atlantic. The GFS currently shows an all snow event with the center of the Low right over the 40/70 benchmark and a decent accumulation for Sunday into Sunday night.

GFS FTW with this one or are there stronger models, even with this success of the GFS’s handling of the most recent event?

 

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