sussexcountyobs Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Well if this storm tomorrow can put down 9.1" here, that will put me at 40" for the season. Current forecasts are 5-9, 6-10". We shall see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Well if this storm tomorrow can put down 9.1" here, that will put me at 40" for the season. Current forecasts are 5-9, 6-10". We shall see? That would be nice... pretty much same for my locale too. Also looks like it’s going to come in earlier probably around mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: That would be nice... pretty much same for my locale too. Also looks like it’s going to come in earlier probably around mid afternoon. Even if I make it to 40", still a long way to go to reach average. But you never know? It is still March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Few early thoughts: I am a NAM 12Km fan...I think better than the 3K though I'll reevaluate demonstrated other superior model opinion inside 60 hours. I've added then probabilistic graphic I used early this morning...looks too far nw to me... and I think, if the next several runs of the NAM concur, there will be a pretty darn good band of 1-2"/hr for 2 hours setting up somewhere near FWN-BOS line 03z-09z time frame. Two graphics attached: mid shift probability 4+, axis looks too far nw to me, but the future modeling may confirm this location or a shift. AND, an advance notice of FGEN banding potential, near 06z/4. If the transitory enewd moving band occurs, then I see a 9" stripe somewhere along or just north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Few early thoughts: I am a NAM 12Km fan...I think better than the 3K though I'll reevaluate demonstrated other superior model opinion inside 60 hours. I've added then probabilistic graphic I used early this morning...looks too far nw to me... and I think, if the next several runs of the NAM concur, there will be a pretty darn good band of 1-2"/hr for 2 hours setting up somewhere near FWN-BOS line 03z-09z time frame. Two graphics attached: mid shift probability 4+, axis looks too far nw to me, but the future modeling may confirm this location or a shift. AND, an advance notice of FGEN banding potential, near 06z/4. If the transitory enewd moving band occurs, then I see a 9" stripe somewhere along or just north of it. A little too technical for me but always welcome to see you here. I'm in the green near SI; not sure what to expect, was surprised by today's event. If we can get one, we can get two. march 1992 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z nam is nothing really exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, Animal said: 12z nam is nothing really exciting. I'd say it's at least 3-6"/4-8" areawide outside of maybe the twin forks. It really comes down overnight. It won't be a blockbuster but this winter it might as well be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM and RGEM have the best snows going right through the center of the area -- nothern and central NJ to NYC to LI. 6 to 8 inches for most. Looking like a nice warning level event, unless we see late changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'd say it's at least 3-6"/4-8" areawide outside of maybe the twin forks. It really comes down overnight. It won't be a blockbuster but this winter it might as well be. As I've said, these were very typical storms of the 70's and 80's. The 18 inches in 83 was a complete shock to people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I’m shocked that they didnt issue a watch for nyc, not sure what they are thinking as its borderline for 6. If models move to a rainier or drier solution then just issue the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 What is the start time for this ? also what’s up in regards to the storm for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: I’m shocked that they didnt issue a watch for nyc, not sure what they are thinking as its borderline for 6. If models move to a rainier or drier solution then just issue the advisory. Models have been trending drier recently it seems. Also look at the snow depth when available to help temper expectations as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The GFS just gets drier with every run... almost a shutout up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: I’m shocked that they didnt issue a watch for nyc, not sure what they are thinking as its borderline for 6. If models move to a rainier or drier solution then just issue the advisory. My point/click has 3-7", so I'd think they'd issue a watch at least for western Suffolk and west. Start time for NYC looks to be about 6-7pm. Worst is 10pm-4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, romba said: Models have been trending drier recently it seems. Also look at the snow depth when available to help temper expectations as well. Certainly wouldn’t make sense to issue the watches for N&W areas then so is it really because they are hedging on a drier solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Didn't this storm originally look more like a deepening bomb? Seems more like an overrunning event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 GFS actually went west a bit and got stronger with the precip. There's still time for last minute trends with this. I was thinking there might be an overtrend SE last night. I still wouldn't write off some mixing on the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 44 minutes ago, Animal said: 12z nam is nothing really exciting. What counts as exciting to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The GFS just gets drier with every run... almost a shutout up here now. Oh ya bc we all believe the GFS.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 As of right now how does the north shore of western Suffolk look for this event? We seem to always jackpot during storms like this for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS actually went west a bit and got stronger with the precip. There's still time for last minute trends with this. I was thinking there might be an overtrend SE last night. I still wouldn't write off some mixing on the immediate coast. We mixed very briefly last night, then went over to light flurries before snow. I'm not stricly coastal but as close enough to the east shore of SI and upper raritan that I will usually see some mixing, even in decent events. High was supposed to be 45 tomorrow; are we expecting temps to crash... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: What counts as exciting to you? 3-6 inches for me these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: 3-6 inches for me these days. sounds bout right--not too disruptive--and this one even happened on a Saturday--and its already started to melt. Perfection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Anyone north of Rt. 80/West of 287 I think this can 1-3/2-4, I-95 and coast probably a 3-6" type deal, colder/flatter solution also equals less precip/dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Oh ya bc we all believe the GFS.... lol Which model do you "believe" for your one-stop solution? Just curious as here I've been looking at multiple pieces of guidance to suss out the range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, justinj said: As of right now how does the north shore of western Suffolk look for this event? We seem to always jackpot during storms like this for Long Island Pretty golden, I'd say if anyone goes over 6" it would be this area. But it wouldn't take too much of a NW trend at the end to have mixing come into play. If it stays like this at 0z tonight I'd say we're in for a decent event at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12z cmc is 6-10 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Animal said: 12z cmc is 6-10 across the area. Does it still have that ridiculous storm it was showing next Monday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 So, the Euro caved to the GFS for the storm now racing off into the Atlantic. The GFS currently shows an all snow event with the center of the Low right over the 40/70 benchmark and a decent accumulation for Sunday into Sunday night. GFS FTW with this one or are there stronger models, even with this success of the GFS’s handling of the most recent event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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