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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


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28 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Interior fringe jobs were the one genre of misfortune conspicuously absent this winter. Glad to see we'll finally check that last box this weekend.

The trend has been to hit north or south of the city, so north is out at the moment.......

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Just now, snowman19 said:

The Euro just caved to the other guidance. Went way SE and it’s not done yet, neither are the others

Too early to say that when the relevant system is just affecting California now and this current system which will affect how far SE the baroclinic zone goes is just moving in now. 

I could see a trend back NW tomorrow after everything is sampled correctly. But maybe it keeps going SE, who knows. 

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

It's the big one Weezy. (Pretend its reality and 2000 and it doesn't snow) 

NYC 11"

LGA 9"

JFk 13"

ISP 10.5" 

EWR 12"

Perfect BM track its real.

on the Euro?  That would be bigger than last March's big event!  Biggest March storm since March 1993 and biggest all snow event in March in quite a few decades.

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

on the Euro?  That would be bigger than last March's big event!  Biggest March storm since March 1993 and biggest all snow event in March in quite a few decades.

No, just my call. Suffering from missing out on the SECSy ongoing event being upstate. Mid March last year was epic away from the reporting stations  obviously the March 7thish white rain typical March storm was tough but there's something to be said about this recent March snow fest. Even in a shit winter NYC somehow reaches avg or above.

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11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

No, just my call. Suffering from missing out on the SECSy ongoing event being upstate. Mid March last year was epic away from the reporting stations  obviously the March 7thish white rain typical March storm was tough but there's something to be said about this recent March snow fest. Even in a shit winter NYC somehow reaches avg or above.

Still a ways from being above average.

If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. 

If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities. 

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31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still a ways from being above average.

If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. 

If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities. 

and more chances for snow by the end of next week!

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The CCB in the somewhat compressed flow sort of sucks on this system as you can see on the NAM.  That’s why there will be a fairly narrow area that does well with this.  It’ll be the zone that is in the initial WAA push and also gets hit briefly as the low makes the turn and moves up the coast 

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The air mass is fairly poor ahead of this too.  Notice the RGEM starts everyone as rain.  There isn’t really a true high to the north at all so that could temper accumulations slightly near the coast.  

My expectations are very low with this. If it's too flat we miss out on the dynamics and it might too warm, too amped and we could get the heavy thump but then go over to rain.

This winter remains an F for me. If we can get 6" or more then it would raise it to a solid D+ 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

My expectations are very low with this. If it's too flat we miss out on the dynamics and it might too warm, too amped and we could get the heavy thump but then go over to rain.

This winter remains an F for me. If we can get 6" or more then it would raise it to a solid D+ 

Yea I am not crazy about this storm either, the precip shield seems to be shrinking and shrinking each run. 

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Still a ways from being above average.

If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. 

If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities. 

If you use the current posted 30 year averages 1981-2010 in NYC it's 25.8 inches. The 150 year average is 28.8 inches and the average since 1991 which will be the starting period for the new 30 year averages is 30.5 inches.

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47 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If you use the current posted 30 year averages 1981-2010 in NYC it's 25.8 inches. The 150 year average is 28.8 inches and the average since 1991 which will be the starting period for the new 30 year averages is 30.5 inches.

For all the winter despair, the city has a decent chance ending up just slightly below normal (20"+) in a few days. All the snow on the fringes of winter. 

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