snowman19 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 42 minutes ago, mikem81 said: This map is completely deceiving for NYC/LI. Must be a ton of sleet. Terribly deceiving. The NAM went way SE for tonight btw like you said before, it’s only 1-2 inches total for tonight/tomorrow. Here is the REAL depiction of the snowfall from that NAM run and it’s nowhere even close to that other bogus snowmap which includes sleet as snow, and you have to subtract 1-2 inches from this total because it includes tonight/tomorrow morning: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030118&fh=81 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Gfs is further east and so is the heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs is further east and so is the heavier precip I buy that, the over amped solutions don't make sense given the progressive flow and tonight's/tomorrow system that'll drag the baroclinic zone eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs is further east and so is the heavier precip The ICON just did the exact same thing. I talked about this risk a few hours ago if you look back on my post in this thread. A few days ago I felt the risk was amped/cut but that obviously changed now given all the stream flow changes and shortwaves flying around. Suppression has become a real threat for Sunday, baroclinic zone getting dragged way east “The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The ICON just did the exact same thing. I talked about this risk a few hours ago if you look back on my post in this thread. A few days ago I felt the risk was amped/cut but that obviously changed now given all the stream flow changes and shortwaves flying around. Suppression has become a real threat for Sunday, barocoinic zone getting dragged way east “The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk” So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong? You swore by it yesterday. Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong? You swore by it yesterday. Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Areas just to the north and west get crushed on the nam. Alot if snow and sleet for NYC. Or a lot of sleet? It is March after all, we've been known to sleet while others snow to the north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 So I guess it's ICON/GFS/Para VS Euro/Nam/CMC now. My money is on the latter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: So I guess it's ICON/GFS/Para VS Euro/Nam/CMC now. My money is on the latter. Euro is alone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: So I guess it's ICON/GFS/Para VS Euro/Nam/CMC now. My money is on the latter. UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro track looks like snow (1-3 maybe) to rain for nyc and Long Island. Too close of a track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Euro track looks like snow (1-3 maybe) to rain for nyc and Long Island. Too close of a track. Gfs and gefs went further east at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 24 minutes ago, romba said: UKIE? Way southeast of Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I never really understood why it always has to be one model that has it right while the others are wrong. This isn't rooting for a sports team here. These are peices of guidance. A EURO/GFS blend doesn't look so bad for most in here does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Way southeast of Euro So should most C/NNJ write this one off? ( I mean I have kinda written then winter off already, but I keep getting dragged back in, only to be mostly disappointed ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So should most C/NNJ write this one off? ( I mean I have kinda written then winter off already, but I keep getting dragged back in, only to be mostly disappointed ) I don't think anyone can write this one off,,,,,,IMO its in a good spot for many and it would appear that it won't take a big shift one way or another to effect many areas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: So now you think the Euro is too amped/going to be wrong? You swore by it yesterday. Whether you score a coup with this new analysis or not, maybe you should take a break from forecasting until after the storm and learn how to not be agenda-driven and cocky with the mission of pissing everyone off Why is your username "snowman" anyway? Seems a bit contradicting He’s been doing this for years. Looks for everything that doesn’t produce snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, dmillz25 said: He’s been doing this for years. Looks for everything that doesn’t produce snow Well, he picked a good season to help his batting average... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: He’s been doing this for years. Looks for everything that doesn’t produce snow And there are people here that look for everything that could produce snow---and always go with it be fair 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: I don't think anyone can write this one off,,,,,,IMO its in a good spot for many and it would appear that it won't take a big shift one way or another to effect many areas . When things move east that is bad for my area. Am west of the city. Only the Jan 2016 storm in recent years plastered us; every other one was a near miss, with us getting a few inches instead of double digits, at least every one of the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So should most C/NNJ write this one off? ( I mean I have kinda written then winter off already, but I keep getting dragged back in, only to be mostly disappointed ) Southeast is what we want to avoid the change to rain. I doubt it would trend so far southeast that we miss out on significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, winterwx21 said: Southeast is what we want to avoid the change to rain. I doubt it would trend so far southeast that we miss out on significant snows. So southeast good, east bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: And there are people here that look for everything that could produce snow---and always go with it be fair I’m pointing out him not others. Trust I know there are weenies that will look for anything that will produce snow knowing that it won’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 IF this thing had some blocking to the North we would be in business but neither tonights or Sundays have that. A question = even though the trend has been South and East don't you guys think that Sunday the models will comeback NORTH and west as they usually do ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Upton already calling for 2-4 inches for Sunday night event for northshore of LI. Gives me a bit more confidence this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 29 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Well, he picked a good season to help his batting average... A broken clock blah blah blah... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, Nibor said: A broken clock blah blah blah... I was going to say even a blind squirrel blah blah blah but broken clock works too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro further south and east Caving 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro further south and east Caving Still a rainstorm or what? Also, since when did the Euro start running off hours? I've been tracking weather for over fifteen years and hadn't realized this had happened until recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Still a rainstorm or what? Also, since when did the Euro start running off hours? I've been tracking weather for over fifteen years and hadn't realized this had happened until recently... I'm not sure when 6Z and 18Z EURO runs started, but they are a thing. The operational run only goes to 90 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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