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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


WEATHERMINATOR
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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The warm air surges in toward the end of precip, so hopefully the storm is mostly over by the time warm air arrives. As great as the RGEM was, I have to think it’s too cold given the slight amped trend in other models that bring heavy snow further inland. That also means more warm air. 

probably one of those situations where once the precip rates decrease near the end many experience drizzle/light rain

 

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

That's another inch we all desperately need lol. Either way definite uptick in QPF that run.

What’s the total amount of qpf this run compared to last? Also looks like about an hour once either light snow or rain starts. Quickly over to all snow just like what happened in Eastern PA

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models have the surface right at 32 degrees (barely) up here in Rockland County for tonight at the coldest. This is going to be heavy wet paste. Typical for a March storm

I agree

This is going to be a heavy wet snowstorm.

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Dewpoints low-mid 20's north jersey should be a limited rain at beginning

NJZ001-105-106-008-010-013-015-019>022-104-032100-  
NEW JERSEY  

 
CITY SKY/WX MP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS  
NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 42 24 49 SE8 30.03F  
TETERBORO CLOUDY 42 23 46 S6 30.01F  
CALDWELL CLOUDY 41 24 51 SE7 30.02F  
SOMERVILLE CLOUDY 41 27 57 VRB5 30.01F  
LINDEN CLOUDY 41 23 49 S7 30.03F  
PERTH AMBOY N/A 37 N/A N/A E14 N/A WCI 29  
SUSSEX CLOUDY 39 23 52 CALM 29.99F  
ANDOVER N/A 39 22 50 VRB6 29.99F WCI 35  
TRENTON CLOUDY 43 30 60 S6 30.02F  
MILLVILLE CLOUDY 42 30 62 SE9 30.02F  
ATLANTIC CITY PTSUNNY 40 34 79 E8 30.03F WCI 34  
WRIGHTSTOWN PTSUNNY 42 30 63 SE9 30.00  
TOMS RIVER PTSUNNY 41 31 67 SE9 30.05F  
BELMAR CLOUDY 39 26 59 SE8 30.05F WCI 33     

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Mt. Holly still sticking with 5 - 8 inches in warning area at 3:17 PM

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
317 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019  
 
NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-040830-  
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190304T1200Z/  
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-  
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-  
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-  

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWTON, WASHINGTON, MORRISTOWN,  
FLEMINGTON, SOMERVILLE, NEW BRUNSWICK, TRENTON, JIM THORPE,  
STROUDSBURG, READING, ALLENTOWN, BETHLEHEM, EASTON, HONEY BROOK,  
OXFORD, WEST CHESTER, KENNETT SQUARE, COLLEGEVILLE, POTTSTOWN,  
NORRISTOWN, LANSDALE, CHALFONT, PERKASIE, MORRISVILLE,  
AND DOYLESTOWN  

317 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2019  

   
..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY
 
 
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8  
INCHES EXPECTED.  
 
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY  
AND EAST CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.  
 
* WHEN...UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY.  
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. SNOWFALL  
RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT 5  
PM AND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SNOW WILL END BEFORE THE MONDAY  
MORNING COMMUTE, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING  
FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY SNOW.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU  
MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR  
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.  
 
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN  
BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.  
  

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even IF it did mix its after a very heavy thump.

For example the storm that caused all the power outages last March gave 10 inches of cement BEFORE changing to rain. Obviously very different storm but I think this will be a little cooler than that. 

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2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

I think someone in north jersey/ S New York State / SW CT sees 12”

The two jackpot areas will probably be over the Hudson Valley/N NJ/SW CT where ratios are better and banding can set up, and just north of where the rain/sleet makes it and there’s the highest amount of precip. 12” is probably the max with this given how fast the storm’s hauling. 

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national westher service forecasting 5-9 by me in suffolk but they are claiming it will be a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain. does anyone buy this? i was thinking this would be all snow or rain and sleet

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