jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Cool. Hope your right. City area needs a good snow. Even here, we've just been nickel and diming it all winter. Most of the city still looks good. I’d be a little concerned in the Rockaways and east from there-the RGEM has stayed cold but it’s hard to ride that by itself when the Euro is still getting marginal for a time on the immediate coast and the hi res short term models are doing the same thing. Hopefully a lot of it’s done by the time warm mid level air gets close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: Most of the city still looks good. I’d be a little concerned in the Rockaways and east from there-the RGEM has stayed cold but it’s hard to ride that by itself when the Euro is still getting marginal for a time on the immediate coast and the hi res short term models are doing the same thing. Hopefully a lot of it’s done by the time warm mid level air gets close. You seem to have higher confidence for this one JM. Hope you're batting average is still good. Now, where will the subsidence hit this time? Would like it not to be us for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: Possibly, but brightness temperature maps aren't an indicator of where stratus will be. The HRRR's ceiling products keep a dense low level stratus deck around past sunrise. That's true. I should have used the slightly quicker hi-res NAM to illustrate my remark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 55 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The only way to read that is there is a substantial possibility areas like ours "might" underperform. " It is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." First I'm seeing this kind of talk.We would be way to close for comfort for that; south of the GSP bridge would be hurt even more. Can't seem to get a storm that isn't a gamble. Now what do they mean by south and east of 195? I95 cuts through NJ up to NYC, do they mean Monmouth and Ocean, or do they include up to exit 12 or so? Anyone can feel free to weigh in..... You're misreading it. It says, "This could cut down snow amounts in some areas particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." This is only for areas south of 195 (which runs from south of Trenton to Belmar) and east of the Turnpike, which is not a surprise to be at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'm just hoping I can get 9" here. That seems like a stretch to me. Season total so far is 31", so that would put me at 40". Still way below average but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, RU848789 said: You're misreading it. It says, "This could cut down snow amounts in some areas particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." This is only for areas south of 195 (which runs from south of Trenton to Belmar) and east of the Turnpike, which is not a surprise to be at risk. Yes, others have weighed in on this; I was concentrating on the "east of 95" part. When those southern areas rain we don't always; the downside is when they are doing well we can be shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: You seem to have higher confidence for this one JM. Hope you're batting average is still good. Now, where will the subsidence hit this time? Would like it not to be us for a change. I doubt the problem this time would be subsidence but who knows-it could always be a factor if heavy banding sets up. Down in LB I’d be more worried about how far north the warm air gets and how much is left if the warm air makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: I'm just hoping I can get 9" here. That seems like a stretch to me. Season total so far is 31", so that would put me at 40". Still way below average but it is what it is. 40” wouldn’t be way below average there. Isn’t your average about 45”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: 40” wouldn’t be way below average there. Isn’t your average about 45”? No. 50-55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 NAM is scary warm, also really impressive rates. Uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: I will be in Port St Lucie next weekend . Hopefully I dont miss anything. Go METS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Well as I said earlier there is a lot of severe activity down south, thundersnow might be a possibly if the low gets strong enough imo Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk Many Tornado and Severe Tstorm warnings in Georgia , Alabama, Florida https://kamala.cod.edu/svr/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 850s stay <0° barely. Plenty of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 850s stay <0° barely. Plenty of precip how about the rest of the column ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: 850s stay <0° barely. Plenty of precip they look to get close to 0 at 850 once precip is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 JFK is currently colder than LGA with a south wind...39 vs 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM is scary warm, also really impressive rates. Uh oh. Why “uh oh”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how about the rest of the column ? 700 is fine, I cant see 925 but given the rates I'd say NYC is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 18Z NAM coming in wetter, but also sleets more in southern parts of the city. Lift in the DGZ showing up over LGA at 06Z is more impressive than the 12Z run - this is suggestive of the 1-2"+/hr rates over the city, even if they only last 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 NAM looked better at 850 level during the precip for NYC and western LI on this run. The surface was a degree warmer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: they look to get close to 0 at 850 once precip is over 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: they look to get close to 0 at 850 once precip is over Once its over? That's not good, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Why “uh oh”? Real close. Nassau and Suffolk go +0° at 850 towards the end with good precip towards the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: NAM looked better at 850 level during the precip for NYC and western LI on this run. The surface was a degree warmer.... Sketchiest panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: they look to get close to 0 at 850 once precip is over The models have the surface right at 32 degrees (barely) up here in Rockland County for tonight at the coldest. This is going to be heavy wet paste. Typical for a March storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12z/3 NAM banding as seen thru FSU web MOE web site, courtesy Bob Hart et al. Lets see what the radar says at this hours, 3z, 6z (can only upload the two hrs). The way I think of this...decent lift into the ideal dendrite zone is accentuated and the wet snowflakes become larger and show a bright band on radar and depending on the return, the flake size can assist with snowfall rates (Quinlan et al). I'm not up to speed on rates but I just look for big time snow in that area, especially if quasi stationary. In this case transitory east northeastward but still I think will be notable for anyone having to be out tonight. 305P/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Sketchiest panel. Precip is all but over at that point. Maybe another tenth of an inch falls between 8z and 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Sketchiest panel. For me that's real close, and if that close It usually causes me problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Once its over? That's not good, right? The warm air surges in toward the end of precip, so hopefully the storm is mostly over by the time warm air arrives. As great as the RGEM was, I have to think it’s too cold given the slight amped trend in other models that bring heavy snow further inland. That also means more warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Precip is all but over at that point. Maybe another tenth of an inch falls between 8z and 9z Didn't realize that, reacted too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Precip is all but over at that point. Maybe another tenth of an inch falls between 8z and 9z That's another inch we all desperately need lol. Either way definite uptick in QPF that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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