March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

[NittanyWx]

23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

even with cold temps high  sun angle will do a number on the snow...quickly...

Part of the reason we'll do OK on the accumulation side tonight is because of timing.  No sun angle to lose frozen precip to.

[RU848789]

And for the love of all things holy, please don't make "storm cancel/bust" posts at 3-5 pm when it starts as light rain for an hour or even two. As per above, that's expected and shouldn't "waste" too much QPF. Now if it's 6-7 pm and it's raining heavily, by all means, commence panicking (unless you live down the Jersey Shore and are expecting a decent amount of rain and then snow).

NWS does a nice job with their recent update talking about the current temps and start as rain not really being factors. 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
939 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Most of the updates this morning were to temperature trends with
most areas running a few degrees warm. At present think this
trend will have limited impacts on precipitation type later this
afternoon as dewpoints are mostly close to forecast so wet-
bulbing should cool things efficiently when the more intense
precipitation begins. Additionally cloud cover will continue to
increase this morning into the early afternoon which should keep
temps from shooting up too much.

Regarding the storm, morning guidance came in a little warmer
and brought the rain-snow-mix line a bit further north and west
this evening. This could cut down snow amounts in some areas
particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about
I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall
as rain. However this is a very tight situation as small changes
in the sfc. low track (and precipitation intensity) will result
in the snow gradient shifting slightly one way or the other.
Consequently will hold off on making any changes to forecast
snow amounts until 12Z guidance has fully come in and been
sufficiently analyzed.

Otherwise precipitation timing looks on track, with precipitation
entering filling in from SW-NE early-mid afternoon. The initial
precipitation will likely be rain given modest intensities and
surface temperatures, however the switch to at least moderate snow
is expected across most of the area around and just after sunset.
The exception will likely be central-southern Delmarva and far
southern NJ which may remain rain through the event.

[Wetbulbs88]

15 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And for the love of all things holy, please don't make "storm cancel/bust" posts at 3-5 pm when it starts as light rain for an hour or even two. As per above, that's expected and shouldn't "waste" too much QPF. Now if it's 6-7 pm and it's raining heavily, by all means, commence panicking (unless you live down the Jersey Shore and are expecting a decent amount of rain and then snow).

NWS does a nice job with their recent update talking about the current temps and start as rain not really being factors. 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
939 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Most of the updates this morning were to temperature trends with
most areas running a few degrees warm. At present think this
trend will have limited impacts on precipitation type later this
afternoon as dewpoints are mostly close to forecast so wet-
bulbing should cool things efficiently when the more intense
precipitation begins. Additionally cloud cover will continue to
increase this morning into the early afternoon which should keep
temps from shooting up too much.

Regarding the storm, morning guidance came in a little warmer
and brought the rain-snow-mix line a bit further north and west
this evening. This could cut down snow amounts in some areas
particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about
I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall
as rain. However this is a very tight situation as small changes
in the sfc. low track (and precipitation intensity) will result
in the snow gradient shifting slightly one way or the other.
Consequently will hold off on making any changes to forecast
snow amounts until 12Z guidance has fully come in and been
sufficiently analyzed.

Otherwise precipitation timing looks on track, with precipitation
entering filling in from SW-NE early-mid afternoon. The initial
precipitation will likely be rain given modest intensities and
surface temperatures, however the switch to at least moderate snow
is expected across most of the area around and just after sunset.
The exception will likely be central-southern Delmarva and far
southern NJ which may remain rain through the event.

Sounds about right, and right on brand with the HRRR. 

Radar looks slightly out ahead of the HRRR. 

[jm1220]

The crap about Snowman19, trolling, banning, etc can stop now. Thanks! Those posts will quickly go bye bye. 

[allgame830]

I wonder what cities are reporting snow in PA Bc the radar shows snow as Far East as central PA

[MJO812]

Euro is slightly warmer

4-8 for the coast

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is slightly warmer

4-8 for the coast

Not even. It’s noise really.

[Superstorm]

I wonder what cities are reporting snow in PA Bc the radar shows snow as Far East as central PA

Flakes are starting to fall here in Lancaster.


.

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not even. It’s noise really.

Globals are at the bottom of the list at this point, just above ensembles. I'm watching the NAM/RGEM/HRRR. 

[nycwinter]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is slightly warmer

4-8 for the coast

maybe for you but not for people in upper manhattan

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

maybe for you but not for people in upper manhattan

Looking at the run the mix just touches the south shire of LI. Manhattan stays all snow.

[weatherlogix]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at the run the mix just touches the south shire of LI. Manhattan stays all snow.

what part of the south shore of LI? How far inland?

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Dude don't you know that anything above Dyckman St is upstate and west of Fort Lee is never never land? 

Fawt Leee??

[donsutherland1]

At 1 pm, IAD was reporting mixed precipitation, DCA was reporting light rain, and BWI was reporting light snow. The upcoming storm could be the biggest storm all season in parts of the region. A 4"-8" figure in and around NYC (parts of NJ, Westchester/Rockland/Fairfield Counties, western Nassau County) still looks reasonable.

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

what part of the south shore of LI? How far inland?

Brooklyn

[weatherpruf]

54 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And for the love of all things holy, please don't make "storm cancel/bust" posts at 3-5 pm when it starts as light rain for an hour or even two. As per above, that's expected and shouldn't "waste" too much QPF. Now if it's 6-7 pm and it's raining heavily, by all means, commence panicking (unless you live down the Jersey Shore and are expecting a decent amount of rain and then snow).

NWS does a nice job with their recent update talking about the current temps and start as rain not really being factors. 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
939 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Most of the updates this morning were to temperature trends with
most areas running a few degrees warm. At present think this
trend will have limited impacts on precipitation type later this
afternoon as dewpoints are mostly close to forecast so wet-
bulbing should cool things efficiently when the more intense
precipitation begins. Additionally cloud cover will continue to
increase this morning into the early afternoon which should keep
temps from shooting up too much.

Regarding the storm, morning guidance came in a little warmer
and brought the rain-snow-mix line a bit further north and west
this evening. This could cut down snow amounts in some areas
particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about
I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall
as rain. However this is a very tight situation as small changes
in the sfc. low track (and precipitation intensity) will result
in the snow gradient shifting slightly one way or the other.
Consequently will hold off on making any changes to forecast
snow amounts until 12Z guidance has fully come in and been
sufficiently analyzed.

Otherwise precipitation timing looks on track, with precipitation
entering filling in from SW-NE early-mid afternoon. The initial
precipitation will likely be rain given modest intensities and
surface temperatures, however the switch to at least moderate snow
is expected across most of the area around and just after sunset.
The exception will likely be central-southern Delmarva and far
southern NJ which may remain rain through the event.

The only way to read that is there is a substantial possibility areas like ours "might" underperform. " It is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." First I'm seeing this kind of talk.We would be way to close for comfort for that; south of the GSP bridge would be hurt even more. Can't seem to get a storm that isn't a gamble. Now what do they mean by south and east of 195? I95 cuts through NJ up to NYC, do they mean Monmouth and Ocean, or do they include up to exit 12 or so? Anyone can feel free to weigh in.....

[495weatherguy]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The only way to read that is there is a substantial possibility areas like ours "might" underperform. " It is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." First I'm seeing this kind of talk.We would be way to close for comfort for that; south of the GSP bridge would be hurt even more. Can't seem to get a storm that isn't a gamble. Now what do they mean by south and east of 195? I95 cuts through NJ up to NYC, do they mean Monmouth and Ocean, or do they include up to exit 12 or so? Anyone can feel free to weigh in.....

I interpret this to read geographic Long Island, and most of Manhattan could have mixing issues.    And  of course those East of I-95 in NJ will have mixing issues

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The only way to read that is there is a substantial possibility areas like ours "might" underperform. " It is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." First I'm seeing this kind of talk.We would be way to close for comfort for that; south of the GSP bridge would be hurt even more. Can't seem to get a storm that isn't a gamble. Now what do they mean by south and east of 195? I95 cuts through NJ up to NYC, do they mean Monmouth and Ocean, or do they include up to exit 12 or so? Anyone can feel free to weigh in.....

They probably mean coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties, especially south of Toms River. In that area a lot of what falls will probably be mix or rain. I-195 runs due east from Trenton. 

[Snowlover11]

precip is racing NE wouldn’t surprise me to see this move in by 4-5pm

[sussexcountyobs]

I'd be cautious setting your hopes up high for those big snow totals in the city and coast. Hope it happens, but ,even here, its supposed to start as rain. That is not a good sign for the city and coast. I'm not a met, and don't do forecasts,  but, a few hrs of rain or mix will cut down on those numbers being progged. I may be wrong?

[Metasequoia]

Any mets care to weigh in on possibly of thundersnow? How do those soundings look?

[Ericjcrash]

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'd be cautious setting your hopes up high for those big snow totals in the city and coast. Hope it happens, but ,even here, its supposed to start as rain. That is not a good sign for the city and coast. I'm not a met, and don't do forecasts,  but, a few hrs of rain or mix will cut down on those numbers being progged. I may be wrong?

Not really much QPF wasted with the lightrain/white rain at onset.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'd be cautious setting your hopes up high for those big snow totals in the city and coast. Hope it happens, but ,even here, its supposed to start as rain. That is not a good sign for the city and coast. I'm not a met, and don't do forecasts,  but, a few hrs of rain or mix will cut down on those numbers being progged. I may be wrong?

There won’t be hours of rain. It’ll be brief before the column cools down and snow makes it to the ground. That’s what’s happening in MD and PA now. 

[Wetbulbs88]

13 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

precip is racing NE wouldn’t surprise me to see this move in by 4-5pm

Yeah radar is far ahead of modeled. We should start seeing raindrops by then easy. 

[Zelocita Weather]

Rain by 4ish, snow by 6ish, .05 - .1 qpf 'wasted'

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They probably mean coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties, especially south of Toms River. In that area a lot of what falls will probably be mix or rain. I-195 runs due east from Trenton. 

I consider SI to be east of I95 in my area, as I am in the crossroads of 95, GSP, 287, so that sometimes means us. we may however, transition to snow faster than areas to the south. Sometimes.

[weatherpruf]

16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'd be cautious setting your hopes up high for those big snow totals in the city and coast. Hope it happens, but ,even here, its supposed to start as rain. That is not a good sign for the city and coast. I'm not a met, and don't do forecasts,  but, a few hrs of rain or mix will cut down on those numbers being progged. I may be wrong?

I don't think you are wrong, and some local mets think 3-6 with the 6 coming up your way. I think 4-5 inches seems reasonable.

[sussexcountyobs]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There won’t be hours of rain. It’ll be brief before the column cools down and snow makes it to the ground. That’s what’s happening in MD and PA now. 

Cool. Hope your right. City area needs a good snow. Even here, we've just been nickel and diming it all winter.

[Juliancolton]

Looking perfectly timed for an awesome sunrise tomorrow as the stratus deck breaks up over a newly whitened landscape... could be the best one of those mornings in years.

 

[purduewx80]

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Looking perfectly timed for an awesome sunrise tomorrow as the stratus deck breaks up over a newly whitened landscape... could be the best one of those mornings in years.

Possibly, but brightness temperature maps aren't an indicator of where stratus will be. The HRRR's ceiling products keep a dense low level stratus deck around past sunrise.