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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


WEATHERMINATOR
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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

All of Northern and most of Central NJ are part of the NYC metro. Also included is far NE PA and NY state going back to Ulster and Sullivan Counties.

I prefer to say "immediate metro" which doesn't include NEPA, Sussex or even Monmouth and Ocean, in my view ( the sociological boundary is much more expansive, even including "metro" areas of its own, like the Edison statistical area, itself a sub-city ) it's just a flat out big area population wise, so the weather is gonna be a little different in some parts. When its cloudy or rains who cares ( well I know you do ) but snow amounts are a different thing. Last year I had just shy of 4 inches when areas to my west had double digits. 20 minute drive.

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10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I prefer to say "immediate metro" which doesn't include NEPA, Sussex or even Monmouth and Ocean, in my view ( the sociological boundary is much more expansive, even including "metro" areas of its own, like the Edison statistical area, itself a sub-city ) it's just a flat out big area population wise, so the weather is gonna be a little different in some parts. When its cloudy or rains who cares ( well I know you do ) but snow amounts are a different thing. Last year I had just shy of 4 inches when areas to my west had double digits. 20 minute drive.

Dude don't you know that anything above Dyckman St is upstate and west of Fort Lee is never never land? :lmao:

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Does anyone know when it will begin snowing? I live in Westchester county and want to visit someone right over the George Washington bridge, but I will cancel is travel will be too hazardous early in the evening. 

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43 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Long Island will definitely need a heavy precip event so dynamic cooling can take place. Temperature here already hitting 40 degrees.

That's very common in March snow events, even under colder air masses the BL could warm through the 30s.

Dews are decent though plus we'll have additional cooling once the sun sets. That combined with the precip arriving will cool temps off fairly quickly.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

NAM signature: One visual for 06z/4 attached from the 06z run.  Pretty darn consistent and nice stretch now...  Not sure where you see EC banding?   NAM very consistent.  This will definitely build amounts along and north of this black band, above qpf 10-1 relationship.  I didn't see snow ratios... but a caution... not much cold air at the sfc, so I dont think more than 10-1 ratio along I95.  Another I95 caution, am hoping UVM can overcome the +32F aloft...  NAM prob of frozen is below 80% PHL-NYC on I95. Your or anyones counter comments welcome, with some science support I hope. Thanks.  Walt

 

Screen Shot 2019-03-03 at 8.55.48 AM.png

Thanks for all the assistance with this storm.

Question - is it true that banding typically falls just to the north of where models specify normally? I could be mistaken.

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for all the assistance with this storm.

Question - is it true that banding typically falls just to the north of where models specify normally? I could be mistaken.

Thats my experience.  We shall see - the idea is that its slightly colder just north, allowing larger dendritic growth.  

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