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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


WEATHERMINATOR
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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Got an image? I'm curious about new kuchera map although it doesn't really matter IMO, 1" QPF all snow at night is telling. 

City is around 6-7”. Don’t expect a foot of snow here

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Got an image? I'm curious about new kuchera map although it doesn't really matter IMO, 1" QPF all snow at night is telling. 

Yes  I need to take a look at that map myself. The snowfall map I'm looking at shows me getting 6-7 inches with 1"QPF. I don't think so.

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14 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Someone is going to get dumped on tonight with 1" - 2" an hour rates. That will be your jackpot zone. 

12Z HREF will probably continue to support that, looking at the various NSSL 12Z runs so far. 

Another + for 1-2"/hr rates is the 6-6.5 C/km lapse rates aloft as the 850-700mb circulation shifts by to the S. Convective precip will be likely as a result.

 lapse.thumb.png.3ad05c435c674d4a959a7b0a0ffd0fde.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Doesn't make any sense for a 10:1 map considering QPF should be 8-10" nam3km_apcpn_neus_8.thumb.png.da1c7c7cc7ca7ddf5c270b197556d38b.png

Temps are going to be iffy on the south shore. This storm is going to be close to an all snow event. We also have to see where the heavier bands will set up.

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2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Long Island will definitely need a heavy precip event so dynamic cooling can take place. Temperature here already hitting 40 degrees.

Focus on the dew point not the 2m temp. Right now dews are mid to upper 20s area wide. This is good. 

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6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Check your dewpoint temps. Down to 20 here

You may want to re calibrate your weather station. There aren’t any dews near 20 anywhere near the area, like 100 miles

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