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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


WEATHERMINATOR

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Not being talked about is the fact that the EURO has been indicating all time low March temps for the 6th and/or 7th. for at least 4 runs.  Ranging from -5* to +2*.    It has also stayed with 8"/9" for the storm.

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

6z Euro still has 6-10 for the coast and surrounding areas.

Well Ant, you hung in there ( though even you were waving the white flag ) and looks like we may get a decent storm here; consensus at NWS seems to be in the 4-8 range except for the coasts, but they seem to mean Ocean and parts of Monmouth Co (  some in that one area of Monmouth County think they will do better; miss PB's analysis, looks like he's on another board now ) and darn it if I don't want another one! Of course, this one hasn't actually happened yet....peace.

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

6z Euro still has 6-10 for the coast and surrounding areas.

Good to hear. Looks like we're good to go. The only fly in the ointment is the marginal temps in place. We need to slow this storm down a bit so it arrives after sundown. That way we can get maximum snowfall with no sun angle issues and longer duration event.

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27 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Not being talked about is the fact that the EURO has been indicating all time low March temps for the 6th and/or 7th. for at least 4 runs.  Ranging from -5* to +2*.    It has also stayed with 8"/9" for the storm.

For the most part...  I think the EC is too low but I can easily see a +6F low Thursday morning (looking at LI temps as more realistic).  Snowcover helps.  I see many are following the warmer GFS MOS on this.  We'll see what happens but this has been advertised as you said, for many many days now.  On the snowfall...the EC did back off temporarily with its 00z/3 cycle but has come back up.  ENS from the GFS and EC appear a little low.  I am going to ride with the NAM, as my usual for the first 48 hrs.  The only time I hesitate with there NAM is when it ABRUPTLY changes.  Then I need another cycle to confirm its change. The record for Thursday is I think 7 above in CP. 

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No model really caved with this, seems like Euro/GFS eventually compromised and met in the middle which is what many expected. Seems the best snows will be along and probably a little NW of I95. Think this is a 6-9 inch event for jackpot zone, best amounts as usual in these events probably Northern NJ through the Harriman Highlands. Lower amounts north of I84. Change to rain/mix possible for Suffolk county and maybe south shore of Nassau. Everyone else in the tri state area should be all snow. 

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For what it's worth...BANDING signal continues...looks pretty big to me from se NYS through CT to near BOS.  That means .6" of liquid could easily be 10" instead of a 10-1 6".  Also,  roads will not have quite as much due to initial 1-3 hours of melting.  Also...with 6" or more falling in a 32-33F  environment near I95, I could easily see power outages...especially ne corner NJ into srn CT.  We'll see if the snow materializes as now predicted.  Confidence is that it will but jury, as always, still out deliberating. 

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13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Does it taint at all?

 

 

5 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Be careful what you hug...;)

I don't see six on here in the metro... enjoy the fast melt of March my hardcore weenies

nam.thumb.png.fdedd86f1e9446cbb142d09642962843.png

No one is hugging anything

 That seems too low

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

The NAM is the driest model, best to take a blend

Agree

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

4-6” in the city, 3-5” in immediate SE burbs, 2-4” South and East of there. 5-8” for interior NNJ and Lower Hudson Valley except 4-6” in Westchester. 3-6” in far NW sections.

Good call

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5 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Be careful what you hug...;)

I don't see six on here in the metro... enjoy the fast melt of March my hardcore weenies

nam.thumb.png.fdedd86f1e9446cbb142d09642962843.png

I'm usually the first person to pull out a depth change map to lower weenies expectations but this is 90% a night time event with .8"+ QPF NYC sees more than 3" verbatim on the 06z NAM.

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

For what it's worth...BANDING signal continues...looks pretty big to me from se NYS through CT to near BOS.  That means .6" of liquid could easily be 10" instead of a 10-1 6".  Also,  roads will not have quite as much due to initial 1-3 hours of melting.  Also...with 6" or more falling in a 32-33F  environment near I95, I could easily see power outages...especially ne corner NJ into srn CT.  We'll see if the snow materializes as now predicted.  Confidence is that it will but jury, as always, still out deliberating. 

Yeah best banding signatures around 02-04z along 95 and just NW could put somebody higher than currently forecasted ceiling of ~8”.

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

For what it's worth...BANDING signal continues...looks pretty big to me from se NYS through CT to near BOS.  That means .6" of liquid could easily be 10" instead of a 10-1 6".  Also,  roads will not have quite as much due to initial 1-3 hours of melting.  Also...with 6" or more falling in a 32-33F  environment near I95, I could easily see power outages...especially ne corner NJ into srn CT.  We'll see if the snow materializes as now predicted.  Confidence is that it will but jury, as always, still out deliberating. 

Gfs and Nam aren't hitting at any banding signatures like the Rgem, HRDPS and Euro are.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs and Nam aren't hitting at any banding signatures like the Rgem, HRDPS and Euro are.

The GFS has been too far Southeast with the track for a few days. The NAM develops a band just to our SW around 23z and that tracks NE of the area by 06z which is the period that most of the snow will fall. Other hours will be mostly light or no precipitation.

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3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The map also clearly shows 6” in parts of the metro. Maybe the lack of hugging has confused some people’s eyesight. 

Depends whats defined as the metro? But usually NE NJ and Westchester are considered part of the Metro and both those areas look to be 5+. The NAM is also likely wrong with this. This is one storm given the timing is overnight that I'd lean will produce

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Depends whats defined as the metro? But usually NE NJ and Westchester are considered part of the Metro and both those areas look to be 5+. The NAM is also likely wrong with this. This is one storm given the timing is overnight that I'd lean will produce

All of Northern and most of Central NJ are part of the NYC metro. Also included is far NE PA and NY state going back to Ulster and Sullivan Counties.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

All of Northern and most of Central NJ are part of the NYC metro. Also included is far NE PA and NY state going back to Ulster and Sullivan Counties.

Yea technically I don't think climo wise anyone considers NE PA/Ulster/Sullivan Counties part of NYC Metro  

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If the last system was able to drop over 4" in places then this one could easily drop double that somewhere. 

It's slightly colder aloft (less sleet), it's a night time event, it's a much larger, stronger, and wetter system. 4-8" across the board is a good call with local amounts topping 10". 

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22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs and Nam aren't hitting at any banding signatures like the Rgem, HRDPS and Euro are.

NAM signature: One visual for 06z/4 attached from the 06z run.  Pretty darn consistent and nice stretch now...  Not sure where you see EC banding?   NAM very consistent.  This will definitely build amounts along and north of this black band, above qpf 10-1 relationship.  I didn't see snow ratios... but a caution... not much cold air at the sfc, so I dont think more than 10-1 ratio along I95.  Another I95 caution, am hoping UVM can overcome the +32F aloft...  NAM prob of frozen is below 80% PHL-NYC on I95. Your or anyones counter comments welcome, with some science support I hope. Thanks.  Walt

 

Screen Shot 2019-03-03 at 8.55.48 AM.png

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