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March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


WEATHERMINATOR

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

That's also another reason to ignore snow maps.

They’re only highly accurate in events where temps are right around 28-32 and you’re 100% snow the entire time.  If you start above those temps or mid 20s down they’re usually off 

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9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

This completely ignores the temp profiles. Need to do a deeper analysis than just regurgitating the snow map. Zero chance Baltimore gets 7" with that run. 

Agreed, I was just posting the visual for what everyone was quoting. It definitely seems off, at least up this way in Westchester which is all snow and likely .6-.7 qpf, yet only 5 inches on the snow map.

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1 minute ago, terrapin8100 said:

Agreed, I was just posting the visual for what everyone was quoting. It definitely seems off, at least up this way in Westchester which is all snow and likely .6-.7 qpf, yet only 5 inches on the snow map.

Yeah the NAM is smoking some strong stuff right now. 

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

The NAM must be very confused. It has big snow totals in areas it depicts as mainly raining. I'm at the point where the NAM to me can't be totally trusted quite yet. 

That was a screwy run by the Nam. If you never look at the snowfall map and only focus on the surface plots, you would think its a bigger hit for north Jersey. 

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I’m not too concerned for most of us, unless the models collectively shift NW tonight. SE Suffolk is a different story, most models other than the cold RGEM have the R/S line around there for a good chunk of the storm. Could be a couple of inches over the forks and 7-8” in NW Suffolk and most of Nassau. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m not too concerned for most of us, unless the models collectively shift NW tonight. SE Suffolk is a different story, most models other than the cold RGEM have the R/S line around there for a good chunk of the storm. Could be a couple of inches over the forks and 7-8” in NW Suffolk and most of Nassau. 

Yea the metro area is probably in the safest shape overall with this. The far Eastern and Northern zones are most at risk of busting. NYC/NE NJ/Western LI/Westchester/Coastal CT in the best shape for this one.

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HEADLINE: Winter Storm Watch issued March 02 at 9:51PM EST until March 04 at 7:00AM EST by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Moderate to heavy wet snow possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southeast Connecticut and southeast New
York including New York City and Long Island.
* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM hasn’t really budged.  It’s tended to be too cold this year overall but when it has it’s usually been catching up the final 24-30 hours.  This time it isn’t really moving at all the last 2-3 runs 

And on the other the GFS hasn't budged from it's basically nuisance level storm at most for many consecutive runs. Definitely a model battle

 

And of course after I say that the GFS now comes in noticeably NW and wetter on it's 0Z run

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This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. 

NYC drivers have accidents in two inches of snow. Thankfully this morning wasn't a work day lol 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. 

Unless the RGEM verifies, which is a 10-12 hour event. But I'm more in line with what you said. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. 

Yea intense but fast, precip comes in very quick and intense and also quickly goes from heavy to nothing. I agree 6-8 is probably the max. The best snows probably run  25-50 miles NW of the rain/snow line

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44 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. 

Agree with this and like what HRDPS shows. It seems some of the other guidance is a tad too light on precip. 

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