Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3k NAM looks paltry again. I'm very confused lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 That's also another reason to ignore snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: That's also another reason to ignore snow maps. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: 3k NAM looks paltry again. I'm very confused lol. Don't be. We pretty much have a model consensus. People near the rain/snow line can worry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 We have a 990LP on the benchmark at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Rjay said: That's also another reason to ignore snow maps. They’re only highly accurate in events where temps are right around 28-32 and you’re 100% snow the entire time. If you start above those temps or mid 20s down they’re usually off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: This completely ignores the temp profiles. Need to do a deeper analysis than just regurgitating the snow map. Zero chance Baltimore gets 7" with that run. Agreed, I was just posting the visual for what everyone was quoting. It definitely seems off, at least up this way in Westchester which is all snow and likely .6-.7 qpf, yet only 5 inches on the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, terrapin8100 said: Agreed, I was just posting the visual for what everyone was quoting. It definitely seems off, at least up this way in Westchester which is all snow and likely .6-.7 qpf, yet only 5 inches on the snow map. Yeah the NAM is smoking some strong stuff right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The NAM shows potential for heaviest snows and banding close to the same corridor as the 18 Euro and RGEM. That’s about the most you can take out of it right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Look at soundings... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 im surprised we are still under watches considering we are less than 24 hours from the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Th Just now, mikem81 said: Look at soundings... This is mid Nassau County at height of precip on NAM. By 6Z it starts shutting off... .5-.7 of precip with sub 0 850 and 925 tmeps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: The NAM must be very confused. It has big snow totals in areas it depicts as mainly raining. I'm at the point where the NAM to me can't be totally trusted quite yet. Use soundings, stay away from the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: The NAM must be very confused. It has big snow totals in areas it depicts as mainly raining. I'm at the point where the NAM to me can't be totally trusted quite yet. That was a screwy run by the Nam. If you never look at the snowfall map and only focus on the surface plots, you would think its a bigger hit for north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I’m not too concerned for most of us, unless the models collectively shift NW tonight. SE Suffolk is a different story, most models other than the cold RGEM have the R/S line around there for a good chunk of the storm. Could be a couple of inches over the forks and 7-8” in NW Suffolk and most of Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’m not too concerned for most of us, unless the models collectively shift NW tonight. SE Suffolk is a different story, most models other than the cold RGEM have the R/S line around there for a good chunk of the storm. Could be a couple of inches over the forks and 7-8” in NW Suffolk and most of Nassau. Yea the metro area is probably in the safest shape overall with this. The far Eastern and Northern zones are most at risk of busting. NYC/NE NJ/Western LI/Westchester/Coastal CT in the best shape for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, Rjay said: Don't be. We pretty much have a model consensus. People near the rain/snow line can worry though. Rjay or anyone else,,,,,Is the 3K Nam seeing the edit here --> Low in Canada ----> more west ? Could this be ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Use soundings, stay away from the snow maps. Exactly what I've been preaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea the metro area is probably in the safest shape overall with this. The far Eastern and Northern zones are most at risk of busting. NYC/NE NJ/Western LI/Westchester/Coastal CT in the best shape for this one. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The RGEM hasn’t really budged. It’s tended to be too cold this year overall but when it has it’s usually been catching up the final 24-30 hours. This time it isn’t really moving at all the last 2-3 runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 HEADLINE: Winter Storm Watch issued March 02 at 9:51PM EST until March 04 at 7:00AM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Moderate to heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Connecticut and southeast New York including New York City and Long Island. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. INSTRUCTIONS: A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM hasn’t really budged. It’s tended to be too cold this year overall but when it has it’s usually been catching up the final 24-30 hours. This time it isn’t really moving at all the last 2-3 runs And on the other the GFS hasn't budged from it's basically nuisance level storm at most for many consecutive runs. Definitely a model battle And of course after I say that the GFS now comes in noticeably NW and wetter on it's 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. NYC drivers have accidents in two inches of snow. Thankfully this morning wasn't a work day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. Unless the RGEM verifies, which is a 10-12 hour event. But I'm more in line with what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. Yea intense but fast, precip comes in very quick and intense and also quickly goes from heavy to nothing. I agree 6-8 is probably the max. The best snows probably run 25-50 miles NW of the rain/snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 GFS went slightly wetter. Gets .5 line past the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 GFS gets the mid level warmth about to the barrier islands for a time. This could be another one where I'm glad to be in Huntington, although I'm still pretty sure all do well away from the twin forks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 RGEM looks great Edit: Hi res looks like it's coming in even hotter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 44 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This isn't going to be more than a SECS-level event just based on how fast it's moving alone. Most areas will be really snowing for only 8 hours. I think the ceiling for any one area is 12" and that's if good, 2"/hr type banding sets up and stays overhead for several hours. Generally this will be a 6-8" type deal which in this winter may as well be a BECS but won't be overly disruptive. Agree with this and like what HRDPS shows. It seems some of the other guidance is a tad too light on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now