Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat


WEATHERMINATOR
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

The RGEM used to be deadly. I hope it's right, I just don't trust it

I don't remember what the NAM was showing for the NYC area 24 hrs out but it was the only model remotely close to being right in SNE. It was the only one leading the charge showing it chasing the convection and jumping East.

Then again, every storm is different.

Here's to the NYC-BOS corridor maximizing Sunday nights potential! :drunk:

The RGEM is certainly a bit south of the NAM/Euro/ICON.  Its had a pretty bad run lately

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM is certainly a bit south of the NAM/Euro/ICON.  Its had a pretty bad run lately

This year and last if I remember correctly.

It used to lock onto a solution 48 hrs out and hold onto it to the bitter end and end up verifying. You could trust it with your firstborn!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

It's because as it shifts SE, it does so due to the fact that it is disorganized. The more disorganized it is, the lower the QPF. The RGEM tends to be deadly in this range, so I would be cautious as to using the NAM verbatim right now. Likewise, last night's storm would show that there is the potential for more precip. Also, the SPC is expecting strong storms in the south tomorrow night, thus latent heat comes into play.

All of that being said, I would expect the POTENTIAL for this to be a rather significant (6+) snow event for the tri state.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for the breakdown.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Added the banding product from the 18z NAM to my prior post several pages ago. Pretty consistent. Here are the associated NAM UVM in what will be a saturated dendrite zone forecast nr 06z/4.  LGA pretty good... and BDL outstanding.  It's a model signal. Whether it holds is a question but its ben there at least 3 successive cycles.  SOURCE of TSEC  MOE-FSU.   All of this develops a little late for e PA but worthy of seeing how this actually turns out. We'll see if this holds into the 12z/3 cycle. 

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 4.59.02 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 4.59.54 PM.png

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnowFeen said:

I don’t think Central Park starts as rain or rains even one bit.  I think this ends up being an i95 special 4-8 inches. Just my opinion.

I think most areas start as rain as temps will be above freezing everywhere but change to snow as column cools. I expect it to start as rain even by me in Dutchess county but quickly change. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think most areas start as rain as temps will be above freezing everywhere but change to snow as column cools. I expect it to start as rain even by me in Dutchess county but quickly change. 

Yeah it'll be rain for a short time...could be 30 minutes or an hour but as soon as rates increase it'll mix and changeover

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi res rgem has 8-12 for the coast. It has been showing that for a few runs now.
Watch how the convection in the South progresses tonight into tomorrow. This will be a good indicator of what's coming our way

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. 

Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding

Like we had last night out here. Absolutely ripped from 4 to 6 am. Dropped about 3 inches in 2 hours

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Amh1985 said:

New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight scheduled that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

If it was me and I could change I WOULD,,,,I believe start time for this event is between 4 and 6 pm Sunday evening but I could be wrong. The other thing to consider is where are you coming from as South of us could have issues

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Amh1985 said:

New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

Well, at 4:30PM you may catch the start of the precipitation and it could be R/S mix at the surface.     You should still have time to drive home, before any snow accumulations, if they happen at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Amh1985 said:

New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice:

I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night.  I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. 

What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? 

 

The earlier the better

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. 

FWIW it was way too wet at this leadtime for today's "storm". I wouldn't buy it until 12 hrs out. Hopefully it's right though

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...