SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: The RGEM used to be deadly. I hope it's right, I just don't trust it I don't remember what the NAM was showing for the NYC area 24 hrs out but it was the only model remotely close to being right in SNE. It was the only one leading the charge showing it chasing the convection and jumping East. Then again, every storm is different. Here's to the NYC-BOS corridor maximizing Sunday nights potential! The RGEM is certainly a bit south of the NAM/Euro/ICON. Its had a pretty bad run lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is certainly a bit south of the NAM/Euro/ICON. Its had a pretty bad run lately This year and last if I remember correctly. It used to lock onto a solution 48 hrs out and hold onto it to the bitter end and end up verifying. You could trust it with your firstborn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 GFS holds serve. Progressive/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, USCG RS said: It's because as it shifts SE, it does so due to the fact that it is disorganized. The more disorganized it is, the lower the QPF. The RGEM tends to be deadly in this range, so I would be cautious as to using the NAM verbatim right now. Likewise, last night's storm would show that there is the potential for more precip. Also, the SPC is expecting strong storms in the south tomorrow night, thus latent heat comes into play. All of that being said, I would expect the POTENTIAL for this to be a rather significant (6+) snow event for the tri state. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Thanks for the breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Sounds like Upton has this starting as rain. Anyone have a gut feel as to the changover time Sunday afternoon/evening in the Metro Area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Added the banding product from the 18z NAM to my prior post several pages ago. Pretty consistent. Here are the associated NAM UVM in what will be a saturated dendrite zone forecast nr 06z/4. LGA pretty good... and BDL outstanding. It's a model signal. Whether it holds is a question but its ben there at least 3 successive cycles. SOURCE of TSEC MOE-FSU. All of this develops a little late for e PA but worthy of seeing how this actually turns out. We'll see if this holds into the 12z/3 cycle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Hi res rgem has 8-12 for the coast. It has been showing that for a few runs now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowFeen said: I don’t think Central Park starts as rain or rains even one bit. I think this ends up being an i95 special 4-8 inches. Just my opinion. I think most areas start as rain as temps will be above freezing everywhere but change to snow as column cools. I expect it to start as rain even by me in Dutchess county but quickly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I think most areas start as rain as temps will be above freezing everywhere but change to snow as column cools. I expect it to start as rain even by me in Dutchess county but quickly change. Yeah it'll be rain for a short time...could be 30 minutes or an hour but as soon as rates increase it'll mix and changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Hi res rgem has 8-12 for the coast. It has been showing that for a few runs now.Watch how the convection in the South progresses tonight into tomorrow. This will be a good indicator of what's coming our way Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hi res rgem has 8-12 for the coast. It has been showing that for a few runs now. Is the hi res RGEM on tidbits? If not where do you get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The High res RGEM is crazy..if that happens someone is getting 10-12 easily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Or is the HRDPS the hi res RGEM? Never really put that together if so lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Or is the HRDPS the hi res RGEM? Never really put that together if so lol. Yes it is: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019030218&fh=48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding Would be a true thread the needle win. That banding is fairly narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding Yeah you can really see it hours 33-37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Probably picks up on some sort of frontogenesis induced banding Like we had last night out here. Absolutely ripped from 4 to 6 am. Dropped about 3 inches in 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amh1985 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice: I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night. I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Amh1985 said: New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice: I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight scheduled that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night. I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? If it was me and I could change I WOULD,,,,I believe start time for this event is between 4 and 6 pm Sunday evening but I could be wrong. The other thing to consider is where are you coming from as South of us could have issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Amh1985 said: New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice: I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night. I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? Well, at 4:30PM you may catch the start of the precipitation and it could be R/S mix at the surface. You should still have time to drive home, before any snow accumulations, if they happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 25 minutes ago, Amh1985 said: New to posting to this board but have frequently checked here for winter storm information. Posting for the first time because I am looking for advice: I am out of the area now but scheduled to return on a flight that is supposed to land at LGA at 10:15pm Sunday night. I may have the opportunity to get on an earlier flight landing around 4:30pm, also at LGA. What will conditions be like at 4:30 vs 10pm? Is it worth the hassle to change flights? The earlier the better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 52 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Have a hard time buying the HRDPS right now considering it doesn't seem to organize the Low all that much better than other models. Anyone able to justify how it could verify, more than welcome to hear it out haha. FWIW it was way too wet at this leadtime for today's "storm". I wouldn't buy it until 12 hrs out. Hopefully it's right though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Like we had last night out here. Absolutely ripped from 4 to 6 am. Dropped about 3 inches in 2 hoursLast night was neat. Went from drizzle to rain to sleet/rain to heavy sleet to heavy snow in about 45 minutes here in Edison. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Euro is colder than 12z. Best precip is along the coast 6-10 for NYC and areas just to the north and west of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is colder than 12z. Best precip is along the coast 6-10 for NYC and areas just to the north and west of the city. Axis of heaviest snow is right over NYC and along coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is colder than 12z. Best precip is along the coast 6-10 for NYC and areas just to the north and west of the city. Wow. Euro and RGEM remain steadfast for a major hit. I hope its the correct solution. We will find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Will this snow stick when temperatures remain above freezing for most, if not all, of the event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, husky0101 said: Will this snow stick when temperatures remain above freezing for most, if not all, of the even? As long as it's heavy enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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