Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 3:56 AM, HVSnowLover said: Yea verbatim its great, I guess I mean in terms of trends Expand Yeah we have too much time for negative trends to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 4:07 AM, Juliancolton said: Interior fringe jobs were the one genre of misfortune conspicuously absent this winter. Glad to see we'll finally check that last box this weekend. Expand The trend has been to hit north or south of the city, so north is out at the moment....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 4:36 AM, weatherpruf said: The trend has been to hit north or south of the city, so north is out at the moment....... Expand thats what happens with thread the needle events. We need a good old fashioned Feb 83/03 kind of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 5:04 AM, LibertyBell said: thats what happens with thread the needle events. We need a good old fashioned Feb 83/03 kind of deal. Expand More like Jan 2016. Or any event in 2014....anyway, it's after midnight and tonights' "event" has yet to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 5:08 AM, weatherpruf said: More like Jan 2016. Or any event in 2014....anyway, it's after midnight and tonights' "event" has yet to materialize. Expand we could talk about how rare such events are in March, hell this season getting a 6" event that stayed all snow would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The Euro just caved to the other guidance. Went way SE and it’s not done yet, neither are the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 According to SNE thread, Euro went SE from last run. Heaviest snow roughly along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 6:11 AM, snowman19 said: The Euro just caved to the other guidance. Went way SE and it’s not done yet, neither are the others Expand Too early to say that when the relevant system is just affecting California now and this current system which will affect how far SE the baroclinic zone goes is just moving in now. I could see a trend back NW tomorrow after everything is sampled correctly. But maybe it keeps going SE, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro now in line with the rest of the models, showing 6-8" of additional snow (after today's 3-6" for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC metro) for the 95 corridor. Sweet. Winter storm watches looking probable to me. Hopefully, no last minute bad surprises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It's the big one Weezy. (Pretend its reality and 2000 and it doesn't snow) NYC 11" LGA 9" JFk 13" ISP 10.5" EWR 12" Perfect BM track its real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 7:41 AM, Ericjcrash said: It's the big one Weezy. (Pretend its reality and 2000 and it doesn't snow) NYC 11" LGA 9" JFk 13" ISP 10.5" EWR 12" Perfect BM track its real. Expand on the Euro? That would be bigger than last March's big event! Biggest March storm since March 1993 and biggest all snow event in March in quite a few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 7:43 AM, LibertyBell said: on the Euro? That would be bigger than last March's big event! Biggest March storm since March 1993 and biggest all snow event in March in quite a few decades. Expand No, just my call. Suffering from missing out on the SECSy ongoing event being upstate. Mid March last year was epic away from the reporting stations obviously the March 7thish white rain typical March storm was tough but there's something to be said about this recent March snow fest. Even in a shit winter NYC somehow reaches avg or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 7:58 AM, Ericjcrash said: No, just my call. Suffering from missing out on the SECSy ongoing event being upstate. Mid March last year was epic away from the reporting stations obviously the March 7thish white rain typical March storm was tough but there's something to be said about this recent March snow fest. Even in a shit winter NYC somehow reaches avg or above. Expand Still a ways from being above average. If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro has caved to the GFS yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 8:11 AM, jm1220 said: Still a ways from being above average. If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities. Expand and more chances for snow by the end of next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The CCB in the somewhat compressed flow sort of sucks on this system as you can see on the NAM. That’s why there will be a fairly narrow area that does well with this. It’ll be the zone that is in the initial WAA push and also gets hit briefly as the low makes the turn and moves up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 GFS has the low going off of Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I was surprised they didn’t include the 5 boroughs in the WSW given the south trends overnight. I guess confidence isn’t quite there for 6 or more inches in those spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 9:48 AM, Snow88 said: GFS has the low going off of the Del Marva instead just south of Marlyand on the 0z run. Expand The gfs has this exiting near Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The air mass is fairly poor ahead of this too. Notice the RGEM starts everyone as rain. There isn’t really a true high to the north at all so that could temper accumulations slightly near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 10:15 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The air mass is fairly poor ahead of this too. Notice the RGEM starts everyone as rain. There isn’t really a true high to the north at all so that could temper accumulations slightly near the coast. Expand My expectations are very low with this. If it's too flat we miss out on the dynamics and it might too warm, too amped and we could get the heavy thump but then go over to rain. This winter remains an F for me. If we can get 6" or more then it would raise it to a solid D+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 10:26 AM, SnoSki14 said: My expectations are very low with this. If it's too flat we miss out on the dynamics and it might too warm, too amped and we could get the heavy thump but then go over to rain. This winter remains an F for me. If we can get 6" or more then it would raise it to a solid D+ Expand Yea I am not crazy about this storm either, the precip shield seems to be shrinking and shrinking each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Weird the NWS doesn't seem to be buying the SE trend totally, all the WSW are NW of the city even though most models now has the best dynamics from the city on SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 8:11 AM, jm1220 said: Still a ways from being above average. If 4" from tonight, would be at 15.5" at Central Park. If 8" more on Sun night, would be 23.5" at Central Park. Average is 27-28" I believe. And 12" between both events is still a stretch. I'm not convinced the next one doesn't trend back NW tomorrow once everything is sampled by 12z or so tomorrow. Either way, finally some good opportunities. Expand If you use the current posted 30 year averages 1981-2010 in NYC it's 25.8 inches. The 150 year average is 28.8 inches and the average since 1991 which will be the starting period for the new 30 year averages is 30.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro went colder at 6z Significant snowstorm looks likely for the NYC area and inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 12:22 PM, Snow88 said: Euro went colder at 6z Significant snowstorm looks likely for the NYC area and inland areas. Expand Let’s hope this doesn’t keep “trending” south and east anymore. It’s also a fast mover as has been the theme all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 12:27 PM, weathermedic said: Let’s hope this doesn’t keep “trending” south and east anymore. It’s also a fast mover as has been the theme all winter. Expand No -NAO will cap the maximum amount that we can get for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Upton still not confident yet to hoist wsw for nyc/Long Island yet. Will be some rain at the onset of precipitation tomorrow, but I don’t think too much qpf gets wasted as liquid before changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 11:43 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If you use the current posted 30 year averages 1981-2010 in NYC it's 25.8 inches. The 150 year average is 28.8 inches and the average since 1991 which will be the starting period for the new 30 year averages is 30.5 inches. Expand For all the winter despair, the city has a decent chance ending up just slightly below normal (20"+) in a few days. All the snow on the fringes of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 On 3/2/2019 at 12:22 PM, Snow88 said: Euro went colder at 6z Significant snowstorm looks likely for the NYC area and inland areas. Expand In NE thread they said new EURO taints coast and further north. Hope your right of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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