Deer Whisperer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: GFS looks a warmer/heights higher as the Saturday low is further east. not a lot but it wont take a lot for me to be out so I am hyper focused on this. Just a tick. might be noise but I see it compared to 6z r/s line is literally over my house. Not a huge shift tho so im ok for now. need the euro to come south tho for me to feel a little better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS took a tiny step back. It's one run. Like I said, nobody should be panicking or definitive until at least 12z tomorrow. With so many players on the field, there is no point in zeroing in on one solution. I'm going to wait until the coastal gets out of the way All true, but no weenie is going to be happy when the two models that showed snow no longer do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: r/s line is literally over my house. Not a huge shift tho so im ok for now. need the euro to come south tho for me to feel a little better we have no wiggle room at all at our location. I am just watching thickness and 546. we need Saturday storm to hug coast and get stronger and to the right location. not much to ask. no reason to sweat it now. it is what it will be 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 FV3 continues to show cities as the dividing line..leaning into the rainy side unfortunately. But it's close enough still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12z GFS is 6mb stronger as the low exits the cost just south of the VA/NC line. Would think this is a pos trend (if it continues) for areas that are right on that line. I could see how a uniform 3-6" falls regardless of location. MBY will most likely be all snow but areas SE of me have a chance at a real changeover and thump being closer to the better dynamics of a strengthening low. eta: FV3 with a 994 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Pretty dynamic system coming through tonight that has to work itself out before Sunday night Monday can become clearer...IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS took a tiny step back, but still a hit. It's one run. Like I said, nobody should be panicking or definitive until at least 12z tomorrow. With so many players on the field, there is no point in zeroing in on one solution. I'm going to wait until the coastal gets out of the way I was rooting for more south trend today... as the typical adjustment the final 36 hours or so with these waves is north. I know no one wants to hear that, myself included, but we all know it in the back of our minds...so I think more than just a small adjustment on one or two runs right now...what probably has people frustrated is knowing we don't have enough wiggle room for the inevitable slight adjustment north that will come at game time. ETA: every once in a while something can buck that trend though...both storms in March 2014 trended south at the last minute so it does happen sometimes...but its not often enough to feel comfy going into the final stretch on the southern border of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS took a tiny step back, but still a hit. It's one run. Like I said, nobody should be panicking or definitive until at least 12z tomorrow. With so many players on the field, there is no point in zeroing in on one solution. I'm going to wait until the coastal gets out of the way Yeah, it's hard to say...one run and all that. Agree that once tonight's coastal is actually out of the way and "known" better, perhaps we'll get a better lock on exactly what the Sunday/Monday event will do. For whatever it's worth, I went back and forth on the 24-h precip ending 18Z Monday, looking back through 00Z last night. Today's 12Z cycle has a noticeable increase in QPF over our region, both in terms of amount and coverage, if you flip back over the past 2-3 cycles (though that big max stripe in the southeast around AL/GA decreases). The low is also stronger and a bit more tucked on the NC coast (it was a bit farther south and off the NC coast at 00Z, and off the Delmarva at 06Z. These may be just back and forth oscillations, but those are the most "notable" things I saw at least at the surface. Hard to say if there's much change at 500, other than maybe some more lifting/ridging of the flow to the northeast in the 12Z cycle compared to the past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 FV3 continues the trend of shifting the axis of heaviest wintry precip southeast. Will it be enough, especially given the tendency to shift north near game time, as PSU mentions above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Imho the wave is trending slightly weaker which keeps it from gaining latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, it's hard to say...one run and all that. Agree that once tonight's coastal is actually out of the way and "known" better, perhaps we'll get a better lock on exactly what the Sunday/Monday event will do. For whatever it's worth, I went back and forth on the 24-h precip ending 18Z Monday, looking back through 00Z last night. Today's 12Z cycle has a noticeable increase in QPF over our region, both in terms of amount and coverage, if you flip back over the past 2-3 cycles (though that big max stripe in the southeast around AL/GA decreases). The low is also stronger and a bit more tucked on the NC coast (it was a bit farther south and off the NC coast at 00Z, and off the Delmarva at 06Z. These may be just back and forth oscillations, but those are the most "notable" things I saw at least at the surface. Hard to say if there's much change at 500, other than maybe some more lifting/ridging of the flow to the northeast in the 12Z cycle compared to the past couple runs. Yeah, I think the Euro will remain warm west for now and of course people will jump. I noticed the heavier QPF as well so far on the 12z. We're so close, so this won't take much to get us where we want it. I'm holding until 12z tomm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, Ji said: this is going to end as 33 and rain isnt it That is and always will be my definition of hell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was rooting for more south trend today... as the typical adjustment the final 36 hours or so with these waves is north. I know no one wants to hear that, myself included, but we all know it in the back of our minds...so I think more than just a small adjustment on one or two runs right now...what probably has people frustrated is knowing we don't have enough wiggle room for the inevitable slight adjustment north that will come at game time. ETA: every once in a while something can buck that trend though...both storms in March 2014 trended south at the last minute so it does happen sometimes...but its not often enough to feel comfy going into the final stretch on the southern border of snow. why do you need to see that today with that coastal tonight to still come through? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, it's hard to say...one run and all that. Agree that once tonight's coastal is actually out of the way and "known" better, perhaps we'll get a better lock on exactly what the Sunday/Monday event will do. For whatever it's worth, I went back and forth on the 24-h precip ending 18Z Monday, looking back through 00Z last night. Today's 12Z cycle has a noticeable increase in QPF over our region, both in terms of amount and coverage, if you flip back over the past 2-3 cycles (though that big max stripe in the southeast around AL/GA decreases). The low is also stronger and a bit more tucked on the NC coast (it was a bit farther south and off the NC coast at 00Z, and off the Delmarva at 06Z. These may be just back and forth oscillations, but those are the most "notable" things I saw at least at the surface. Hard to say if there's much change at 500, other than maybe some more lifting/ridging of the flow to the northeast in the 12Z cycle compared to the past couple runs. It hinges on the coastal tonight/tomorrow in the NE. GFS/ICON were leading the way in having that thing bomb out and as a result it wouldn't leave enough room for this storm to amplify as much leading to a flatter/snowier solution for us. Euro has been the weakest (relative term) with the coastal tonight so it has shown a further North and stronger wave Sunday. I know everything isn't 1:1 but that to me seems to be what's causing the deviances in strength and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 If the King moves the Rain/Snow line toward I-95, I will happily take the 12z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: why do you need to see that today with that coastal tonight to still come through? I don't... I am not saying this is done for, tonight storm could impact this and perhaps models aren't yet seeing it fully. But by now they should be able to calculate the impacts of the coastal since its being modeled better. This could still come south more tonight and then we have wiggle room. Or maybe it never adjusts north at the last minute...sometimes they dont. There are NO hard rules in this game. I was simply saying I would rather see another south shift right now on guidance. That is all. Don't want to make more of it than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't... I am not saying this is done for, tonight storm could impact this and perhaps models aren't yet seeing it fully. But by now they should be able to calculate the impacts of the coastal since its being modeled better. This could still come south more tonight and then we have wiggle room. Or maybe it never adjusts north at the last minute...sometimes they dont. There are NO hard rules in this game. I was simply saying I would rather see another south shift right now on guidance. That is all. Don't want to make more of it than that. Understood...did sound like you were hoping to see it move south today though...I'm thinking you're in a good spot for tonight and Monday...I might have to visit my friend up there to join in the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Understood...did sound like you were hoping to see it move south today though...I'm thinking you're in a good spot for tonight and Monday...I might have to visit my friend up there to join in the fun. About time my climo kicks in, its been completely useless so far this year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: About time my climo kicks in, its been completely useless so far this year lol. You have just been unlucky this year. The majority of the favored areas in the DC corridor are at or above climo. The FV3 is such a weenie run that it would most likely get you close to climo within the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I can't believe there are precip type issues with -NAO. <- I wrote that earlier. Now the 12z GFS is cold. (Where's the activity?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I can't believe there are precip type issues with -NAO. <- I wrote that earlier. Now the 12z GFS is cold. (Where's the activity?) Um, this happens a lot. Including March 2001 and half the events in KU. I95 mixed during the Blizzard of 96, the PDII and Feb 10 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 As expected, Euro not budging. Rain for all ETA: brief period of snow at the start for the usual N and W folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 EURO looks like a slight step back just going off P-Type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As expected, Euro not budging. Rain for all ETA: brief period of snow at the start for the usual N and W folks Looks like most of NOVA will go 0 for 3 with these storms, Damn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As expected, Euro not budging. Rain for all ETA: brief period of snow at the start for the usual N and W folks actually its pretty close to where the GFS/FV3 are with the fall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: Looks like most of NOVA will go 0 for 3 with these storms, Damn. not giving up obviously but after the improvements last night i got my hopes up a little too much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 blue in Loudoun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 UKMET, GFS CMC all agree on the low position at 72hrs, about 120 miles south of eastern Long Island. FV3 is about 50 miles north, but the Euro is over SE mass. Euro is definitely an outlier, but can still be right with some small adjustments. GFS and the ICON have the R/S line further southeast than other models. They maybe considered outlier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Looks like most of NOVA will go 0 for 3 with these storms, Damn. It’s not over yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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