aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Fv3 getting closer What do you think Jay...school on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Big brother is a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Looks better for areas west of 95 There are no schools once you get too far west 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 trending 06z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Lwx is bearish for Sunday night. I'm a little surprised considering the trends. There discussion states that they are discounting the 00z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6z Euro continues keeping the snow way north and west, worlds apart from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lwx is bearish for Sunday night. I'm a little surprised considering the trends. There discussion states that they are discounting the 00z GFS. They are probably all in on the euro solution. We’ve seen the icon and now the gfs show snow into the cities. Latest 12k Nam was weaker and colder, 0z cmc was weaker and colder, navgem has trended less amped and colder, fv3 has trended colder. The trend across guidance since 12z yesterday has been weaker and colder. Given the current catchup the globals are having to play with tonight’s coastal, I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to play catch-up with a weaker solution until game time on Sunday. Heck I could see it becoming a quick hitting 2-4/3-6 type event for many. But until the euro caves, they’ll probably remain bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Heather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 On the Euro...remember on Tuesday 72 hrs out from today’s event it had clear skies? Remember 72 hrs out from feb 16 it had like 2-4”? We ended up with partly sunny skies. 72 hrs out from last Wednesday’s storm it only had accumulating snow north and west of Baltimore. I ended up with 5” just south of b-more. The Euro hasn’t really been the most dependable at 2.5- 3 day leads recently. I’m not saying it’s not right but just that it definitely is not what it used to be. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Through 45, the 12z Nam is slightly flatter. The southern SW is a hair slower allowing the ULL in Canada to compress heights in front. Shall see how it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Through 45, the 12z Nam is slightly flatter. The southern SW is a hair slower allowing the ULL in Canada to compress heights in front. Shall see how it ends up. Snow moving in baltimore north and west at 51hrs. It's coming in weaker. 850's pretty much the same. Still south of DC. Better cold press to our north west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely looking further south overall Doesn't quite get to the ICON/GFS solution but its a little bit of an improvement NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 man that is so close. good improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 One key to this thing working out in our favor is rooting for the LP in canada to trend stronger and move in a more west to east trajectory. That will help to press the cold and have implications on the track of our storm. Here's a visual from the 3k at 53hrs compared to it's 6z run. Stronger low to our north, moving on a west to east trajectory will pump cold in from the northwest and help suppress the track of the storm. Something to watch in future runs. Notice even though the lpc is slightly stronger this run it is offset by a stronger lpc and cold push to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Anything out there to slow this down? I'm surprised the storm bombing in front of this one and moving into the 50/50 region isn't slowing this down and blowing it up more. 3K was definitely close for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: One key to this thing working out in our favor is rooting for the LP in canada to trend stronger and move in a more west to east trajectory. That will help to press the cold and have implications on the track of our storm. Here's a visual from the 3k at 53hrs compared to it's 6z run. Stronger low to our north, moving on a west to east trajectory will pump cold in from the northwest and help suppress the track of the storm. Something to watch in future runs. also interesting that 3k has the 0 C line quite a bit further south east compared to 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Anything out there to slow this down? I'm surprised the storm bombing in front of this one and moving into the 50/50 region isn't slowing this down and blowing it up more. 3K was definitely close for the cities. In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo... As HM had posted, if we had better spacing we could be facing a MECS. ( or as he said a HA event ) Due to the change in the NAO phase. Whether indeed the final outcome would be all snow or not, who knows. But, currently the trend is very favorable for March 3rd and 4 th. Seems that cold air really wants to move South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo... Yeah and yet if the storm tonight wasn't going to bomb out...the Monday storm would end up warmer anyway, right? So it's a bit of a trade...where only a weaker Monday storm can give us snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 icon a tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Icon with the weaker NS and it’s reflected with less cold and slightly warmer solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 urg Icon creeping north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 this is going to end as 33 and rain isnt it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: urg Icon creeping north Yup. The last three runs have had an ever so small creep north. Hopefully it reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Ji said: this is going to end as 33 and rain isnt it Partly sunny and 50 just as likely.....see you on March 9th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: urg Icon creeping north It was one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS looks a warmer/heights higher as the Saturday low is further east. not a lot but it wont take a lot for me to be out so I am hyper focused on this. Just a tick. might be noise but I see it compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 It’s razor thin but, still looks like a hit from Dc north and west. 850 bisects the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Looks like the fall line is setting up to be the battleground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 GFS took a tiny step back, but still a hit. It's one run. Like I said, nobody should be panicking or definitive until at least 12z tomorrow. With so many players on the field, there is no point in zeroing in on one solution. I'm going to wait until the coastal gets out of the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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