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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lwx is bearish for Sunday night. I'm a little surprised considering the trends.  There discussion states that they are discounting the 00z GFS.

They are probably all in on the euro solution. We’ve seen the icon and now the gfs show snow into the cities. Latest 12k Nam was weaker and colder, 0z cmc was weaker and colder, navgem has trended less amped and colder, fv3 has trended colder. The trend across guidance since 12z yesterday has been weaker and colder. Given the current catchup the globals are having to play with tonight’s coastal, I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to play catch-up with a weaker solution until game time on Sunday.  Heck I could see it becoming a quick hitting 2-4/3-6 type event for many. But until the euro caves, they’ll probably remain bearish. 

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On the Euro...remember on Tuesday 72 hrs out from today’s event it had clear skies? Remember 72 hrs out from feb 16 it had like 2-4”? We ended up with partly sunny skies. 72 hrs out from last Wednesday’s storm it only had accumulating snow north and west of Baltimore. I ended up with 5” just south of b-more. The Euro hasn’t really been the most dependable at 2.5- 3 day leads recently. I’m not saying it’s not right but just that it definitely is not what it used to be. 

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Through 45, the 12z Nam is slightly flatter.  The southern SW is a hair slower allowing the ULL in Canada to compress heights in front.  Shall see how it ends up.

Snow moving in baltimore north and west at 51hrs. It's coming in weaker. 850's pretty much the same. Still south of DC. Better cold press to our north west. 

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One key to this thing working out in our favor is rooting for the LP in canada to trend stronger and move in a more west to east trajectory. That will help to press the cold and have implications on the track of our storm. Here's a visual from the 3k at 53hrs compared to it's 6z run. Stronger low to our north, moving on a west to east trajectory will pump cold in from the northwest and help suppress the track of the storm. Something to watch in future runs. 

Notice even though the lpc is slightly stronger this run it is offset by a stronger lpc and cold push to our north.

nam3km_T850_us_fh53_trend.gif

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

One key to this thing working out in our favor is rooting for the LP in canada to trend stronger and move in a more west to east trajectory. That will help to press the cold and have implications on the track of our storm. Here's a visual from the 3k at 53hrs compared to it's 6z run. Stronger low to our north, moving on a west to east trajectory will pump cold in from the northwest and help suppress the track of the storm. Something to watch in future runs. 

nam3km_T850_us_fh53_trend.gif

also interesting that 3k has the 0 C line quite a bit further south east compared to 12k

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Anything out there to slow this down? I'm surprised the storm bombing in front of this one and moving into the 50/50 region isn't slowing this down and blowing it up more. 3K was definitely close for the cities.

In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo...

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing

out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo...

As HM had posted,  if we had better spacing we could be facing a MECS. ( or as he said a HA event )  Due to the change in the NAO phase.

Whether indeed the final outcome would be all snow or not, who knows. But, currently the trend is very favorable for March 3rd and 4 th.

Seems that cold air really wants to move South. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

In terms of strength of the monday storm, i'd hedge towards a weaker system in coming runs given how the storm tonight is bombing out. There's not enough space between waves for the monday storm to bomb out imo...

Yeah and yet if the storm tonight wasn't going to bomb out...the Monday storm would end up warmer anyway, right? So it's a bit of a trade...where only a weaker Monday storm can give us snow, lol

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