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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


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Looks as if the biggest culprit with the storm yesterday was that we saw less qpf and rates through central MD into Balt then expected inserted into an already marginal temp profile. Had a domino effect to the north as the warm nose was not getting mixed out as well as it continued north. So despite having better rates around the MD line they were combating warmer then expected mid-levels.

 

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

I can report a small area of snow under the wiper blade. I honestly thought, as late as 6 PM last night,  Northern Delaware schools would be getting at the least a 2 hour  delay.  Surprisgly they closed last Friday from Thursday's night storm which was only around 3 inches maybe 4 in certain spots.      

Thr trend this year has also been warm wet and we hardly ever get snow on the ground with an incoming cold air mass.  How freak'in boring. Like to go back to the 1960's winters or lore. 

Yard looked *white after a few hours of really trying hard yesterday afternoon.  Then we got fog and rain.  Then we wound up with some sleet and freezing last night,  topped with a bit of snow. I think we need to move on from Winter.  

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I thought the lattitude here would help me to a degree even the the elevation is 72 feet LOL

I knew there were going to be issues when I checked the obs last night and saw folk West of me at rather high elevations reporting rain. 

I knew at that time Pamela Anderson was visiting again. I had to text my daughter at UD in Delaware and tell here classes as planned. 

showme was right the mids sucked. AND ......  64 pages for freakin rain.    Time for the warm weather.  

 

 

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looks as if the biggest culprit with the storm yesterday was that we saw less qpf and rates through central MD into Balt then expected inserted into an already marginal temp profile. Had a domino effect to the north as the warm nose was not getting mixed out as well as it continued north. So despite having better rates around the MD line they were combating warmer then expected mid-levels.

 

These storms often come down to crappy rates. The models screw this up constantly. Rates are never as good as progged around here.

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1 hour ago, real said:

New York City itself busted hard. Upton was forecasting 7; looks like city got 2 to 4.

NYC schools closed... so they must have seen more than 2-4”. That being said... that happens frequently. I lived in the lower Hudson valley for 24 years. The north shore of Long Island and the Hudson valley will get  6+, south shore of Long Island and NYC see a few inches, maybe even plain rain. The urban heat island effect is insane in New York.

 

On a a side note... places near Boston saw 16-18”! Wow. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

Places near Boston saw 16-18”! Wow. 

Never feel bad for Boston. They get from one storm, what I typically get in a season.  2 decent storms for them equals a good winter here. 

I get it, they have an awesome location and snow climo. I am bitter.

I will enjoy the three upcoming days of highs at or below freezing on my barren ground as Boston locks into a deep winter period.    :hurrbear:

 

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But hey, any winter where we see a good 5+ events and end up with over 30” is a success in my book. Certainly not the types of winters I’m used to from my time up in the Hudson valley and my college days in buffalo, but it’s been a fairly decent winter. I think one big hurrah KU to end the season would leave people with a much better impression of the winter. Lots of close calls, nail biters, etc. Most ended up going our way, so when yesterday happens we need to get over it and realize it’s March and we live in VA, MD, WV, etc. An area wide 1+ footer would make this a solid winter

now.... onto that March 8th-14th timeframe. 

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Nothing at home from this storm so still short of 30" on the season. If Ji was being honest he is short as well I don't doubt leesburgwx is at 30 because he is more nw than both of us. One more storm please to get ji and me to 30!
We are at 30. I trust leesburg wx. Now I want to get over 30
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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These storms often come down to crappy rates. The models screw this up constantly. Rates are never as good as progged around here.

I think down this way we stole some of y'all precip. I was just under an inch and many CO-op's reporting .9-1.1 inches this am. We were supposed to be 1/3 to 1/2 on the models and north and south of us get more. Sadly 99.99% fell as a cold rain in 34-36 degree temps. I've had more snow (flurries) in last two hours than all of yesterday lol.

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

But hey, any winter where we see a good 5+ events and end up with over 30” is a success in my book. Certainly not the types of winters I’m used to from my time up in the Hudson valley and my college days in buffalo, but it’s been a fairly decent winter. I think one big hurrah KU to end the season would leave people with a much better impression of the winter. Lots of close calls, nail biters, etc. Most ended up going our way, so when yesterday happens we need to get over it and realize it’s March and we live in VA, MD, WV, etc. An area wide 1+ footer would make this a solid winter

now.... onto that March 8th-14th timeframe. 

Yeah. Your area did better than many. 

Seems even in March the seasonal trends continue :

From Mount Holly for later in the week

Will say that there do seem to be some similarities to the pattern we saw for much of February with troughing in the West and ridging in the East, but also cold air and high pressure not far north over eastern Canada. So an early hypothesis on the end of the week would feature something we`ve seen several times this winter: a leading wave sliding over or south of the region around Friday, with a larger storm behind it tracking to our west through the Great Lakes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:
Nothing at home from this storm so still short of 30" on the season. If Ji was being honest he is short as well I don't doubt leesburgwx is at 30 because he is more nw than both of us. One more storm please to get ji and me to 30!

We are at 30. I trust leesburg wx. Now I want to get over 30

Welp... some models have 1-3” for Friday. The small threat needs to be watched now that last nights low is headed toward the gulf of Maine. I know the vag’s on here who need 6+ every storm will brush it off, but snow is snow. Especially if you want to get over 30 for the season. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

When I was looking at soundings on the 3k and Hrrr all morning and afternoon yesterday ....once I plugged in latitudes more then 15 Miles south of the m/d line mix would show up around the 22z to 3z time frame.  So I wasn't surprised that Frederick to Westminster east to just north of  Hunt Valley changed over for long periods in cases  ..but I was surprised you were a mix in Parkton for such a long period .

id say i sleeted from 00z to 03z with some instances of snow in there as the mix line would sag south. snow is snow tho! :) glad you and rest of the carroll county crew did well. 

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57 minutes ago, Ji said:
3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:
Nothing at home from this storm so still short of 30" on the season. If Ji was being honest he is short as well I don't doubt leesburgwx is at 30 because he is more nw than both of us. One more storm please to get ji and me to 30!

We are at 30. I trust leesburg wx. Now I want to get over 30

His measurements are accurate but remember I lived 10 houses from you....and we often didn't get as much as downtown where he lives

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. Beautiful outside though. Snow pack should stick around for most of the week too. I was actually surprised how bad the back roads are. Solid ice. All of them.

Not much down here.  Most everything melted last night.  Only thing left frozen this am, besides a bit of crusted sleet on the ground, was the slop on my car that I had to beat through this morning.  What little remains will be vaporized by the sun by noon time.  Main roads were clear and dry this morning, a bit of slop in places on the side streets.

Another rockin' March.

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1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Welp... some models have 1-3” for Friday. The small threat needs to be watched now that last nights low is headed toward the gulf of Maine. I know the vag’s on here who need 6+ every storm will brush it off, but snow is snow. Especially if you want to get over 30 for the season. 

Yes, it is indeed crazy that people might prefer warmth and being able to work outside or go for walks with the kids or the dogs without being a cold muddy mess to chasing one inch snows that melt into mud baths at 35 degrees as we approach mid March - and thanks for the school yard sexist taunting too - classy.

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2 hours ago, jayyy said:

But hey, any winter where we see a good 5+ events and end up with over 30” is a success in my book. Certainly not the types of winters I’m used to from my time up in the Hudson valley and my college days in buffalo, but it’s been a fairly decent winter. I think one big hurrah KU to end the season would leave people with a much better impression of the winter. Lots of close calls, nail biters, etc. Most ended up going our way, so when yesterday happens we need to get over it and realize it’s March and we live in VA, MD, WV, etc. An area wide 1+ footer would make this a solid winter

now.... onto that March 8th-14th timeframe. 

Sure if that was the case for everybody...I on the other hand, haven’t even broke 15” on the season. 

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