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March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs


WxUSAF
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The severe outbreak is more good than bad for snow later, it shows the system is rapidly deepening and so that should pull in colder air faster, some places that have flipped from snow to rain could go back to snow after 7 pm. Not much hope for anywhere southeast of I-95 but between there and current snowfall, could change back. 

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Lwx lowered yet increased my warning lol.  Go figure

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
508 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

MDZ006-507-040615-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190304T0900Z/
Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
508 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...4 to 7 inches of snow expected. Snow may mix with sleet
  and rain at times this evening.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday. Snow will be heaviest between 5
  PM and 10 PM this afternoon and evening, with snowfall rates
  around one inch per hour expected. The snow may mix with sleet
  and rain at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult due to snow
  covered and slippery roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$


 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Just took the dog on a Jebwalk. Sleet.snow mix here now NW of Winchester. Have about an inch of snow. If it doesnt flip back I will be disappointed for sure. EVERY single model gave me at least 4 inches.

Ouch. I don’t think anything had you mixing. Even the NAM. 

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You are very close to a very sharp cutoff and nws is being liberal because it’s better to bust high than low.  If people are over prepared it won’t cause danger, people not being prepared can. 

But you know this and you aren’t actually expecting 7” but you will still act like a 4 year old and throw a mini tantrum when it doesn’t happen anyways. And if it does you will say yea but it’s only 3” on the roads and it will melt fast because it’s March. 

Ahem @psuhoffman

We ended with about a half an inch on grassy surfaces. Like I said would happen.

NWS called for a ridiculous 7 inches.

I think you should take this post back, and give kudos, where kudos is due.

Thanks!

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2 minutes ago, Sparky said:

around 1.5" att but sleet mixing in, yikes!

Seriously?  Ugh. Your like just south of me. I guess I should have been more concerned with mixing. I was rooting for more amped the last 48 hours. Mixing never even entered my mind with a track southeast of Norfolk.  That’s usually gold here. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

What? What do you contribute to this subforum?

 

tenor.gif

I am just having some fun. Don't need to take it personally.

People gave me heck for calling for 1-2 slushy inches for I-95. Well its what we got. Turns out, I was still to high with that prediction.

Again, people get too sucked into the snowfall maps in these marginal situations. We need to learn and stop repeating this stuff.

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You are very close to a very sharp cutoff and nws is being liberal because it’s better to bust high than low.  If people are over prepared it won’t cause danger, people not being prepared can. 

But you know this and you aren’t actually expecting 7” but you will still act like a 4 year old and throw a mini tantrum when it doesn’t happen anyways. And if it does you will say yea but it’s only 3” on the roads and it will melt fast because it’s March. 

 

4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Ahem @psuhoffman

We ended with about a half an inch on grassy surfaces. Like I said would happen.

NWS called for a ridiculous 7 inches.

I think you should take this post back, and give kudos, where kudos is due.

Thanks!

What are you talking about?  My post was 100% spot on. You knew you weren’t getting 7”. You said before the storm started that was a ridiculous forecast. But you are still going to complain when you dont get the 7” you “knew” you weren’t going to get. You are too predictable. 

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