WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 38/26.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ha maybe! I know very little about the physics of the HRRR. What I do know its it is prone to dramatic shifts over a few runs, and it is next to useless beyond 3-4 hours. So I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't worry about that particular model. There are enough subtle changes in the more reliable guidance over the past 2-3 model cycles to put up some caution flags though. Just for a "quick and dirty" look, check out the snow map over last 3 runs of the GFS on TT. Don't look at the amounts, just the trend. It now has all the significant snow focused more NW, as expected in this setup. I said yesterday I thought the ICON looked pretty reasonable, and it has pretty much held. I noticed that. Snow maps are pretty useless on the southern edge as much of that was actually showing sleet. And that was fluctuating from run to run depending on precip being shown. So though it looked as if we were maybe getting a shift southward of the snowfall in fact that was nothing more then it just showing an increase of qpf totals. If you actually looked at the soundings you could see there has been a shift in the temp profile northward run over run, more so to the east then the west. Right now the battle ground in my mind between mostly conversational snow and/or sleet and shovelable snow is probably just north of DC running east through Balt. Now how that adjusts will probably be determined by what amount of heating we do in fact see on the ground as well as what dews are looking like when the precip does move in. If we do see a spike in temps and/or dews then we can probably shift that battleground northward as we will see deeper low level warmth that needs to initially be overcome. That lends less time where the temp profile will support snow before the warm nose pops in over top. Conversely less heating/lower dews and you can shift the battle ground south. At this time I am liking the potential for 10-15 miles N/W of the cities especially the favored locations around the PA line. Seeing a general increase on projected qpf and tend to believe we will continue to see that increase. Thinking at this time there is a decent shot we see some 10"+ reports somewhere up in that favored local as I would not be surprised if we see some 10-1 to 12-1 ratios as we see some good lift through the DGZ at times in that region. The only limiting factor will be ground temps in that case. Keep the temps around freezing for the majority of the event and they may be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: 34/26 starting warm and hoping to cool quickly is the worst. We're ok. We should cool quickly once precip. starts. If we were in the low 40's now it would be a tougher situation. Hopefully we sent rise too much this morning whicjmh I dont think will happen. Temp should go right to 30-31 once we're snowing and fully saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Most recent 925 and 850 mb temps. As long as you are below zero with these, I think you've got a decent shot at mixing some snow down. Would think you'd need to be -2 or -3 c for all snow, given the warm surface and the warm push from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nothing would really surprise me for us. All snow, nearly all rain, mix. Think we see some accumulation, but big bust potential on both sides. Hoping for the best. You are much farther west than me though, so you are in a bit of a better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nothing would really surprise me for us. All snow, nearly all rain, mix. Think we see some accumulation, but big bust potential on both sides. Our back yards seem to have fallen on the right side of the equation this winter. Fingers crossed we do it again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: We're ok. We should cool quickly once precip. starts. If we were in the low 40's now it would be a tougher situation. Hopefully we sent rise too much this morning whicjmh I dont think will happen. Temp should go right to 30-31 once we're snowing and fully saturated. Thanks. This years marginal events haven’t leaned in my favor so I’m hesitate to be excited about the higher totals. My version of PSUs fringe worry I suppose lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'm in Culebra, Puerto Rico (an island east of mainland) a few more days -- 75 at 7am AST, 81 in afternoons. Fresh east wind 15mph+ all day. Sunny. Probably will have a big storm since I'm missing it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, H2O said: So is this where I put my rain obs for this storm? Keep us posted for when they hoist the flood warnings for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12Z IAD sounding shows a decent dry layer just above the sfc, dewpoints a few degrees lower than the 6z NAM forecast fwiw. Makes me feel a little better about my 39/29 pws reading knowing there is some drier air just above the surface. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1010 98 4.2 -2.8 60 7.0 1.4 10 7 276.6 277.1 274.0 285.1 3.07 1 1000 169 3.4 -5.6 52 9.0 0.1 10 8 276.5 277.0 273.2 283.6 2.51 2 944 633 -0.7 -7.7 59 7.0 -3.1 358 11 277.0 277.4 273.1 283.3 2.26 3 925 795 -1.7 -6.5 70 4.8 -3.4 340 7 277.6 278.0 273.8 284.7 2.54 4 896 1048 -3.7 -5.6 87 1.9 -4.4 258 11 278.0 278.5 274.5 285.9 2.81 5 872 1263 -2.1 -2.6 96 0.5 -2.3 231 18 281.9 282.5 277.7 292.0 3.62 6 850 1466 -2.7 -3.0 98 0.3 -2.9 235 20 283.3 283.9 278.4 293.5 3.60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Snow maps are bad among the southern edge not just because of sleet but also how they calculate. So let’s take a spot along 95 for example. It’s 34 degrees and during the period gets .3 qpf. The model calculates that 50% of what falls will be snow, half’s the .3 and says 1.5”. But a half rain/snow mix at 34 degrees isn’t going to be 1.5” it’s white rain. That’s another example of why those things are awful right along the rain snow line. They are ok to glance at just to see trends quickly from run to run but you have to actually look at the soundings if you want to make a real forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 39.6/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 32/22 here. Went to my friend's house in gamber/finksburg. No snow left on the ground. Bare as can be. Actually there was no snowcover left south of Walmart. The fact that we held some snow cover bodes well. Our temps are running quite a bit cooler than the rest of the forum this morning . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: Our back yards seem to have fallen on the right side of the equation this winter. Fingers crossed we do it again today. If this was our last hope in a bad winter I’d be more stressed, but I’m already over climo and it’s March. I’ll just let it play out and hope to pad stats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 First flakes flying in Purcellville, 37/26 - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Keep us posted for when they hoist the flood warnings for you. I might go boating on the Potomac near Great Falls with my dinghy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'd be cautious with assuming ratios would be anything above 6-8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If this was our last hope in a bad winter I’d be more stressed, but I’m already over climo and it’s March. I’ll just let it play out and hope to pad stats. We still got a shot at something on Friday. Would be nice to have some good looks at 12z and 18z to hold us over if it does just rain. Holding steady at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, H2O said: I might go boating on the Potomac near Great Falls with my dinghy Just don't get arrested for indecent exposure. Or do. Would make for a great conversational piece on these boards for a long time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 First flakes here -- light snow 34/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 40/26 here in Timonium (21093), west of I-83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, H2O said: I might go boating on the Potomac near Great Falls with my dinghy Bring some peppermint schnapps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, snowfan said: I'd be cautious with assuming ratios would be anything above 6-8:1. Ratios once you get out into the farther NW subs will probably be 10:1 possibly 12:1 around the favored locals around the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Flurries here now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Jeff B said: 40/26 here in Timonium (21093), west of I-83. Brutal how warm we are as this arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 06Z Euro has the 2m temp at 34 at 00Z at DCA, The 11Z HRRR has it at 39. I've not been a big fan of the HRRR. My question to my friends at EMC, are there any verification of the HRRR 2m temps and is there a high bias? oops I showed teh 23Z but the 00Z has the same temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Light rain, 41/31. Its Happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 37° and first flakes now falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Wes, I know the hrrrrr has a wrong bias, but not sure it leans warm or cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Snowflakes falling in Gainesville 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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