mappy Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: my thinking for tomorrow... good luck to everyone. Hopefully I bust too low everywhere. Hope this works out! 33/25 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course Leesburgwx is already at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just looked at the HRRR for the first time. Not too inspiring lol. Of course, it's the HRRR. Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The eternal forecast dilemma. 33 and rain or 34 and rain. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 All the mesos have pretty much lost the idea of starting the cities as snow. They keep the cities south and east rain for almost the entire duration. Yesterday many of the mesos had the cities starting as snow for a few hrs. Temps are really warm as well. 40/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with their forecast I'm on the books for 1-2" here in leesburg which I know Ji isn't happy with but this one just feels off to me. 2" gets me to 30" so I'm good...others obviously are expecting blockbusters every event. Our usual exercise of course Leesburgwx is already at 30 Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Too bad that HP in the nw couldn't get further to the east especially with the trend to have the storm bomb off the coast pretty close to us. NWS has some snow in the overnight tonight when winds shift to the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 35/26 Traffic cams show flakes falling all along 68 to just east of Cumberland. Current wet-bulbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 34/21 with a light northerly breeze and a steady barometer. Only a bit of snow cover survived the warmth yesterday/ overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass for many of us if that were to verify. The problem is, is it is more aggressive with warming the surface and raising the dew points then other guidance. This in turn is creating a much deeper warm layer at the surface that is much more difficult to over come. You can see this if you compare the 3K NAM soundings. Guess it could be right but I highly doubt it, I just don't see that sort of response occurring with the flow it has on the surface. Don't follow the HRRR at all so I don't know what issues it does have. But taking a stab at it maybe it is overplaying IR in heating the ground? Underplaying the cloud cover and its effects on limiting the IR? I guess what I am saying is, is the HRRR the DEB of the model world and telling us we have no chances because of the infamous March sun angle? Ha maybe! I know very little about the physics of the HRRR. What I do know its it is prone to dramatic shifts over a few runs, and it is next to useless beyond 3-4 hours. So I guess what I am saying is, I wouldn't worry about that particular model. There are enough subtle changes in the more reliable guidance over the past 2-3 model cycles to put up some caution flags though. Just for a "quick and dirty" look, check out the snow map over last 3 runs of the GFS on TT. Don't look at the amounts, just the trend. It now has all the significant snow focused more NW, as expected in this setup. I said yesterday I thought the ICON looked reasonable, and it has pretty much held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded Let other people do my dirty work. Sounds good to me. Enjoy your 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 34/21 with a light northerly breeze and a steady barometer. Only a bit of snow cover survived the warmth yesterday/ overnight. A bit drier air than I expected in N MD and S PA. Dews in the low 20's upper teens. DP just dropped to 25 here in the past few minutes. I havent been paying attention to what models have been forecasting but I did take a look at the 3k yesterday and the lowest dp predicted was 28 at HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: CWG lowered totals for all by an inch. Its honestly like reading two different conversations from this board vs them. They're trending to this being a complete non event unless you get pretty far north. They seem to be relying on the nams for their analysis Not for all. Still looks the same up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6z euro 10-1. No kuchera for off hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded Let other people do my dirty work. Sounds good to me. Enjoy your 3-5 besides where you measure is urban Leesburg by the river. Might as well be DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It’s 40 in the Dalk. Hard for me to buy much more than 1” of stop. Just not enough cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'm expecting to mix with rain for maybe an hour or two, so it's still a little dicey, but most guidance looks pretty good up here. 34/25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z euro 10-1. No kuchera for off hours. You guys up north look good. I think anyone in the purple or southwest of there in the darker blue should be good. I think anyone outside of the dark blue is likely to struggle, and I'm guessing the light blues and especially grays will ultimately end up with nothing but maybe bit of slop on the grass. Hope I'm wrong. HRDPS and RGEM and even the NAMs give me a lot of hope here, but I'm afraid it's false hope and TT algorithm doing it's usual crazy snow thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: besides where you measure is urban Leesburg by the river. Might as well be DCA You mad bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z euro 10-1. No kuchera for off hours. Should we cut these by 1/3 since ratios are expected to be ~7:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: It’s 40 in the Dalk. Hard for me to buy much more than 1” of stop. Just not enough cold air around I can only handle so much stop A friend at work lives east of the city in middle river. He moved there from Harford county years ago and is always complaining how he gets less snow then everyone else even in the city. I keep telling him if he commuted from the same distance to the northwest he would probably get about 10” more a year and 1-2” more (at least) in most storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Should we cut these by 1/3 since ratios are expected to be ~7:1? I don't think you'll be 7:1. You should be close to 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 So is this where I put my rain obs for this storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 39 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yeah ok...you do realize hes a few miles nw of where you live which means you might not be at 30 yet either especially since you don't measure and just take the highest number recorded I have 30.25" measuring compressed snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 34/26 starting warm and hoping to cool quickly is the worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can only handle so much stop A friend at work lives east of the city in middle river. He moved there from Harford county years ago and is always complaining how he gets less snow then everyone else even in the city. I keep telling him if he commuted from the same distance to the northwest he would probably get about 10” more a year and 1-2” more (at least) in most storms. I would agree with that lol. Low elevation and the bay are a b*tch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Should we cut these by 1/3 since ratios are expected to be ~7:1? The huchera has been running higher than 10-1 to the NW of the max line and below it to the south. Looking at the hourly precip plots I would say south of a Winchester-Mt Airy-Hereford-Rising Sun line I would shave 1-2” off due to mixing or very marginal temps. NW of that line with elevation might even do slightly better than 10-1 in the banding that sets up there but even there were talking slightly better, like 11-1 or 12-1 Max even on ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: You guys up north look good. I think anyone in the purple or southwest of there in the darker blue should be good. I think anyone outside of the dark blue is likely to struggle, and I'm guessing the light blues and especially grays will ultimately end up with nothing but maybe bit of slop on the grass. Hope I'm wrong. HRDPS and RGEM and even the NAMs give me a lot of hope here, but I'm afraid it's false hope and TT algorithm doing it's usual crazy snow thing. Nothing would really surprise me for us. All snow, nearly all rain, mix. Think we see some accumulation, but big bust potential on both sides. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I don't think you'll be 7:1. You should be close to 10:1. Awesome. Looking forward to this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 32/22 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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